UFC Mexico City 2025 Preview and Predictions

UFC Mexico City 2025 Preview and Predictions

The UFC is heading to Mexico City, Mexico, for the first time in 2025. The main event features a flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno, Mexico’s first UFC champion, and Steve Erceg. The remainder of the main card is rounded with solid fights that should entertain fans.

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC Mexico City main card. You can find our prediction records below.

James: 25-27-1

Anthony: 29-23-1

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas- Flyweight Bout

James: The UFC Mexico City main card opens with a flyweight bout between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas. Rodriguez is a 25-year-old prospect with a 2-0 record in the promotion. At this point in his career, he has a decent amount of hype after opening the UFC 306 main card. Now, he gets a chance to do the same in Mexico City. Borjas, 27, has a 0-2 UFC record after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. The catch is that he has fought tough competition thus far into his UFC tenure. 

Rodriguez is a wild fighter who is willing to trade in the pocket. In those exchanges, he lands and eats copious big strikes. His striking defense is quite poor, but it has yet to hand him a loss. Despite not being an elite offensive wrestler, he finds a way to have grappling success when grappling exchanges take place. 

Borjas is a quality striker who is going to pursue his offense relentlessly. In striking exchanges, he is sharp, fast, attacks the body, and has a quality right hand. The biggest flaw in his game is his defensive grappling. At this point in his career, his skills are underdeveloped. If his opponents stick to a game plan centered around offensive grappling, he can have serious problems. 

This UFC Mexico City bout previews to be a close fight. In the striking realm, both fighters will land big shots. Ultimately, I expect Borjas to land more consistently because of Rodriguez’s defensive grappling flaws. The catch is that Rodriguez’s easiest path to victory is his to wrestle offensively. The issue is that he cannot be trusted to follow that game plan. I will take Borjas by decision. 

Anthony: Rodriguez via decision

David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira- Bantamweight Bout

James: The UFC Mexico City main card features a bantamweight bout between David Martinez and Saimon Oliveira. Martinez is making his debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. The 26-year-old currently holds a professional record of 11-1. Oliveira has had an unsuccessful run since signing with the UFC and is 0-2 while fighting infrequently. 

Martinez is willing to engage in a dog fight. In that type of fight, he consistently attacks his opponent with leg kicks and lets his has go when the opportunity arises. This is a basic approach, but he finds success because his attacks are effective. It also helps that he has quality physicality and cardio. 

Oliveira is an aggressive striker. The main goal of his striking approach is to land damaging strikes. He sits down on hooks and throws kicks while throwing spinning attacks and knees. His grappling features a similar approach as he hunts guillotine chokes. This aggressiveness opens him up to being hit and he can be controlled on the ground. 

This UFC Mexico City preview favors Martinez. It is hard to trust Oliveira’s chaotic and reckless approach over Martinez’s simple and functional approach. I expect Martinez to land leg kicks, touch with his hands, and throw counters. This should break Oliveira down. I will take Martinez by third-round submission. 

Anthony: Martinez via KO/TKO

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales- Bantamweight Bout

James: At UFC Mexico City, Raul Rosas Jr. will fight Vince Morales. Rosas made UFC history when he became the youngest fighter to sign with the UFC at 17 years old. Now, he is 20 with a couple of years of experience. In his time with the promotion, he has logged a 4-1 record with three finishes. Morales is on his second stint with the UFC. In his first stint, he logged a 3-5 record. That resulted in being cut, but he worked his way back to the UFC with a five fight win streak on the regional scene. Although, he sits at 0-2 since rejoining the organization. 

Rosas is a high-pace fighter who relentlessly grapples. In the early stages of a fight, he is dangerous because he has respectable takedowns and great submissions. If he gets an early takedown, he can quickly end a fight. The problem is that his striking is underdeveloped, and his cardio is suspect. In the long term, these issues can be fixed, but they are currently a concern in every fight. 

Morales is a tough and durable fighter. This allows him to extend fights. In scrappy fights, he begins to have success with his boxing. Additionally, he has very tricky submission skills and threatens front chokes. 

This UFC Mexico City bout favors Rosas. In the early rounds, he will have a significant grappling edge and will be the much more physical fighter. This will help him have massive early success. If he cannot finish the fight, things will swing in Morales’ favor; however, I believe Rosas finishes the fight more often than he does not. I will take Rosas by first-round submission. 

Anthony: Rosas via KO/TKO

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer- Middleweight Bout

James: UFC Mexico City features a middleweight bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer. Gastelum is a former interim champion who has bounced between middleweight and welterweight. This will be his official return to middleweight for the first time since 2021. Pyfer is a quality prospect with a 4-1 UFC record. The only loss in his UFC tenure came against Jack Hermansson in his only ranked matchup. This bout against Gastelum provides him with a chance to add a quality win to his resume. 

Gastelum is a former college wrestler who has greatly adapted his skillset for MMA. At this point in his career, he focuses much more on throwing boxing combinations and leg kicks. This is not a terrible approach because he has quality boxing and the cardio required to throw at a high pace. If he opts to wrestle, he can still land takedowns. This is especially true when he lands in striking exchanges. 

Pyfer is a highly physical boxer who works to land massive strikes. He has a strong jab, throws combinations, makes intelligent reads, and works to set up shots. These skills help him set up his knockout punches. In the grappling realm, he has underrated technique that is aided with size and physicality. That adds a route to victory in certain matchups. The biggest flaws in Pyfer’s game are his leg kick defense and cardio. Those are issues that can be exploited against a wide array of opponents. 

This UFC Mexico matchup is tricky to preview. It is hard to imagine that Pyfer is going to blitz Gastelum and put him out cold. Meanwhile, Gastelum will likely struggle to have serious grappling success in the early rounds. In theory, Gastelum should have a massive cardio advantage that helps him win the late rounds. The catch is that Pyfer does not see a significant cardio drop until the third round. In this fight, I expect Pyfer to use his physicality to control the early rounds while landing the bigger punches. That could win him the first two rounds. Meanwhile, Gastelum can win the third, but he does not have the offensive firepower to end the fight and complete the comeback. I will take Pyfer by decision. 

Anthony: Pyfer via decision

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober- Lightweight Bout

James: The UFC Mexico City co-main event features a lightweight bout between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober. Torres is an interesting rising prospect with a 3-1 UFC record. Although, his sole loss came in his most recent fight against Ignacio Bahamondes. Meanwhile, Dober is a tenured UFC fighter with a 13-10-1 record. In his most recent run, he is 1-3. At 36, he is slowly becoming an elder statesman in the lightweight division. 

All of Torres’ UFC fights have ended in the first. This is because he is extremely aggressive with serious physicality and power. This allows him to throw massive punches and elbows. Additionally, he has submission upside when he grapples. The serious question is his cardio. He has never been tested in the later rounds, but it is hard to imagine his style translates to the late rounds. 

Dober is a hard hitter with solid physicality, durability, and cardio. The best weapon in his arsenal is his left hook from the soutpaw stance. That weapon has helped him finish the fight and land knockouts. 

This UFC Mexico City bout preview focuses on Torres’ first-round offense. It is not a secret that he will attempt to finish Dober in the first round. If he cannot, he will likely gas out, and Dober will land big shots in the later rounds. I have a hard time believing Torres will finish the fight, considering Dober’s durability. Plus, Torres is more likely to push for an early knockout rather than submission. It should also be noted that Dober trains in the elevation of Denver, Colorado and will likely be more prepared for the Mexico City elevations. I expect Dober to survive early and push the pace in the later rounds. I will take Dober by second-round knockout. 

Anthony: Dober via KO/TKO

No. 2 Brandon Moreno vs. No. 8 Steve Erceg- Flyweight Bout 

James: The UFC Mexico City main event features a flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg. Moreno, the former flyweight champion, is 1-1 since losing his title to Alexandre Pantoja. In his most recent fight, he picked up a victory over Amir Albazi. Erceg is 3-2 in the UFC. His highlight in the promotion is fighting to a close decision loss against Pantoja in his title opportunity. Typically, it is a red flag when a fighter’s best moments come in a loss, but Erceg gets a pass, considering he nearly dethroned the division’s current champion while showing elite skills.

Moreno is a scrappy fighter with serious technical skills. On the feet, he is willing to fight at a high pace and get into a brawl. That often yields success because he has quality boxing and mixes kicks into his approach. On the ground, he can attack submissions, create scrambles, and land sweeps. This gives him solid offensive upside, but his defensive grappling is superb. 

Erceg is a quality striker with great movement. The best aspect of his skill set is his footwork. He excels at getting in and out of the pocket. This allows him to get offensive without taking shots in return. Additionally, he can escape when his opponent attacks first. This also helps him land counters at the end of his opponent’s combinations. In the grappling realm, he has shown quality submission skills and good scrambles. 

The UFC Mexico main event previews to be a close fight. Moreno and Erceg have a lot of similarities, which makes it hard to predict the outcome. Both fighters have quality boxing and supplement their hands with kicks. In the grappling realm, both have a solid combination of wrestling and BJJ. This makes both great defensive grapplers. The pair also has similar levels of physicality, athleticism, and cardio. It makes it hard to find an edge for either fighter. 

Ultimately, I am going to side with Moreno. I favor his ability to get into a brawl and win a close fight. If he can drag this fight into deep waters, Erceg’s clean movement and quality technical skills will be less sharp. Meanwhile, Moreno can be more aggressive with less worry about getting countered. I will take Moreno by decision.

Anthony: Moreno via decision

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