UFC Jacksonville Best Bets
The UFC is taking the octagon to Jacksonville this weekend. More importantly, the organization has put together a solid fight card from top-to-bottom. It is stacked with fun and intriguing fights that should have the fans in Jacksonville excited. Let’s add a little more skin in the game and go over some of the best bets you can make at the event.
*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of June 23, 2023, at 2:00 p.m.*
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria O1.5 Rounds -110
In the main event of UFC Jacksonville, Ilia Topuria finds himself as a -350 favorite while Josh Emmett sits as a +275 underdog. I do not love either side of that money line. Instead, I will take over one and a half rounds which is currently lined at -110.
I think this fight eventually finishes, but I think this is an aggressive line. Simply put, one and a half rounds is not a very long time. I understand the logic, both fighters have massive knockout potential and Topuria has submission upside. That does not mean we see a finish in the first seven-and-a-half minutes.
Each fighter’s most recent bout is fairly telling in this fight. In Emmett’s last fight, Yair Rodriguez beat him pillar to post. His toughness dragged him past the midway point of the second round. At the same time, Topuria dominated Bryce Mitchell in his last fight. Still, the fight made it past the middle of the second round.
It is important to note that this is Topuriua’s first five-round fight in the UFC. I would not be shocked if he slowed the pace down in an attempt to conserve energy if the fight gets extended. Additionally, he could take fewer risks when presented with Emmett’s power. Those facts each lend to the over.
This is certainly one of the sweatiest bets you can make at UFC Jacksonville. You will probably be uncomfortable watching these fighters throw down in the first round. As much as that is not a fun experience, I will willing to endure the pain for what appears to be a good bet.
Maycee Barber +165
In the co-main event of UFC Jacksonville, Amanda Ribas will fight Maycee Barber. Ribas is a -210 favorite while Barber is a +165 underdog. I am taking the ‘dog in this one.
The main reason why I favor Barber over Ribas is the size difference. Ribas is small for the women’s flyweight division. In fact, she has a lot of fights at strawweight. Typically, that would not be a massive red flag, but Barber has a fighting style that can take advantage of the size difference. She loves to make fights physical, often done by getting into the clinch and landing strikes. In this fight, Barber can use her size to hold Ribas up against the fence while adding knees and elbows.
In terms of pure striking, Ribas is more technical. Although, I do not love her defense. On top of that, she is knocked out and wobbled frequently. Once again, Barber is a physical fighter. On the feet, she lands a lot of powerful hooks. While that is not her only form of offensive, they have the potential to make a massive impact at UFC Jacksonville.
Obviously, there are reasons that Barber is an underdog. To start, Ribas has consistently been fighting at a higher level of competition. Secondly, Ribas is a good grappler and could expose the flaws in Barber’s takedown defense. While those are concerns, neither of those factors gets me off this bet. Barber has not fought the level of competition of Ribas, but I think she is improving. That is always a positive. I am also optimistic that Barber can use her size to negate some of Ribas’ grappling.
Overall, it is rare to find a +165 underdog without flaws- Barber is not an exception. I just think the positives outweigh the negatives making this one of my favorite underdog bets at UFC Jacksonville.
Justin Tafa to win via knockout -125
At UFC Jacksonville, Justin Tafa will fight Austen Lane. Tafa is a -185 favorite while Lane is a +150 underdog. I think Tafa win this fight by knockout at -125.
I think this fight ends in a knockout at a very high rate. Tafa has seen seven of his nine MMA fights end in a knockout while Lane has seen 14-of-15 fights end in a knockout.
In terms of pure style, Tafa should be able to land a counter as Lane pressure.
A lot of the outside factors favor Tafa as well. Most importantly, Lane is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series while Tafa is making his seventh UFC appearance. In terms of age, Tafa is only 29-years-old while Lane is 35.
At the end of the day, the bookies think Tafa deserves to be a -185 favorite. I price him as a favorite as well. Plus, I think this fight ends with a knockout at a high rate. If you combine those thoughts, you find yourself at a Tafa knockout. At -125, I do not love laying chalk, but I am still willing to play that bet during UFC Jacksonville.
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