UFC Denver Best Bets

UFC Denver Best Bets

The UFC is heading to Mile High City for a fight night event. The card does not contain a lot of star power; however, several fights that are interesting matchups. As a result, it provides a handful of solid betting opportunities. Here are three of the best bets available for UFC Denver.

*All odds are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 2:45 p.m. on July 12.*

Tracy Cortez +185

The UFC Denver main event is a women’s flyweight bout between Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez. Namajunas is currently lined as a -225 underdog while Cortez is a +185. I am siding with the underdog in this fight.

Cortez has a few aspects of her game that I favor in comparison to Namajunas. The most important is size. In my opinion, Namajunas is at her best when she is competing at strawweight. I do not believe she is big enough or physical enough to find success at the top of the flyweight division. In this matchup, Cortez will have a size advantage and will be more physical.

I also trust Cortez to fight hard when things get tough. At one point, Namajunas could be trusted in that type of fight; however, Cortez has shown that recently while Namajunas has not in years.

As far as skills go, Cortez is a great grappler. That has presented Namajunas with struggles. Despite having fair defensive grappling, she becomes more hesitant on the feet when the threat of a takedown is present. Furthermore, Cortez should have more success grappling because of the aforementioned grappling advantage.

Lastly, Cortez has shown a lot of growth on the feet. This is best seen in her boxing. If the fight is standing, she throws hard combinations and land shots. That does not mean she will outstrike Namajunas; however, she should be able to get the former champion’s respect.

All things considered, Cortez is a solid bet for UFC Denver at a +185 price tag. I believe she is trending upward. Plus, I have little faith in Namajunas’ flyweight experiment.

Drew Dober -105

At UFC Denver, Drew Dober will fight Jean Silva. The bout is closely lined as Dober sits at -105 while Silva is -115. I am siding with Dober and believe it is the best bet on the board for UFC Denver.

I have a hard time understanding why this fight is lined as close as it is. Silva fought at UFC 303 and took this fight on two week’s notice. That is not ideal. It also does not help that the fight is at lightweight rather than featherweight. That fact clearly favors Dober who is the natural lightweight. On top of that, Dober trains out of Denver and has shown great cardio throughout his UFC career. Those factors all favor Dober before we even discuss skills.

I have a hard time seeing Silva’s typical game plan translate to the lightweight division. In most fights, his goal is to walk his opponent down and hit them with big shots. This works because he is willing to put himself in the fire and he usually holds a power advantage. I do not foresee him accomplishing that in this fight when Dober will hold the power advantage and has a great chin.

Dober is a great bet for UFC Denver considering Silva will struggle to implement his game plan and is fighting under non-ideal circumstances. If Silva gets the job done, he deserves a massive amount of respect. It’s just not something I have to fade from a betting perspective.

Christian Rodriguez ITD +150

The final bet for UFC Denver is for Christian Rodriguez to finish Julian Erosa. Rodriguez is a -230 favorite on the money line while Erosa is a +190 underdog. The Rodriguez inside the distance prop sits at +150. That is the best way to find value in this fight.

I have some concerns about Rodriguez in the featherweight division. I am much higher on his overall ceiling as a bantamweight. Still, I believe he is the much more skilled fighter in this matchup. The overall grappling skills heavily favor Rodriguez and he has serious striking skills.

Ultimately, the reason this bet is valuable is because of Erosa’s durability. Erosa has been knocked out is six of his seven UFC fights. It does not take a genius to see that he has chin concerns. Additionally, he does not have elite striking defense. That means he has a bad chin and gets hit.

The reason for this line is that Rodriguez has only finished one of his four UFC wins. The catch is that he has done damage in two of his decision wins. The lack of finishes is not a strong indication of his finishing abilities. On the feet, he lands hard and he threatens submissions while grappling. Furthermore, his cardio makes him a threat to finish for the entirety of the fight. Now, he fights a fighter with poor durability. I will gladly bet that he finds a way to finish the fight.

At UFC Denver, I will bet on Rodriguez to land a finish at the +150 price tag. The finishing ability is present against a fighter that is finished in losses.

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