UFC 309 Best Bets

UFC 309 Best Bets

It is time to make some bets for UFC 309. The event is a difficult card to tackle from a betting perspective. The event has quite a few fights that do not provide betting value. That does not mean it is impossible, however. Here are three of the best bets you can make on UFC 309.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic O2.5 Rounds +105

The first best bet for UFC 309 is for the main event to go over the two-and-a-half-round mark. That line is currently set at +110. I think that is a much more appealing line than the moneyline. Jones is currently a -700 favorite while Miocic is a +500 underdog.

The betting odds for this fight expect Jones to maul Miocic in the early rounds and finish the fight. I am not confident in that outcome. I understand how it would happen. An energetic version of Jones’ can finish anyone. I do not love Miocic’s combination of age and layoff, either. Still, I am taking the over.

It should be recognized that Jones has gone to decision plenty of times in his UFC career. Plus, he has finished fights in the championship rounds. It is not like he is consistently an early finisher.

I would not be surprised to see Jones take a calm and methodical approach in this fight. Jones can use his movement to dictate when exchanges take place. That will allow him to sit on the outside and outstrike Miocic. If he begins to find success in that type of fight, I expect him to comfortably sit on the outside and strike.

This bet comes with a decent amount of risk. That can not be ignored; however, I do not think this is a slam-dunk guarantee that Jones immediately runs through Miocic. I’ll fade that narrative with a bet on the over two-and-a-half-rounds at UFC 309.

Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson Does Not Go To Decision +100

The second bet for UFC 309 is for the bout between Jim Miller and Damon Jackson to end inside the distance. That fight to finish is currently lined at +100.

I have concerns about the durability of both of these fighters. Miller is 41 years old and is coming off a decision loss in which he suffered extensive damage. This is present alongside cardio concerns. Meanwhile, Jackson has been clipped on the chin and knocked out on several occasions.

Despite their durability flaws, Miller and Jackson both have finish upside. Miller throws with bad intentions and has a submission game. Meanwhile, Jackson can get work done later in the fight while also holding a submission game.

The logic here is straightforward, both fighters have questionable durability while also showing finishing ability. That is a good reason to bet this UFC 309 fight to not go the distance.

UFC 309 Preview And Predictions

Marcin Tybura -135

The final bet for UFC 309 is for Marcin Tybura to beat Jhonata Diniz. Tybura currently sits as a -135 favorite while Diniz is a +114 underdog.

I think this fight has two highly probable outcomes. The first is that Tybura dominates Diniz in the grappling while the other is Diniz finding a knockout. I see the first as the much more likely outcome.

I do not doubt Diniz’s striking and expect him to win in that phase; however, his grappling is not good. The former kickboxer has never shown quality defensive grappling. That is an issue against Tybura. The veteran has his fair share of flaws, but he typically understands how to beat fighters like Diniz. I expect Tybura to wrestle early and often. That should result in success.

I am never going to be hesitant about fading a poor grappler with a solid grappler. At -135, the price tag is fair as well. That makes Tybura one of my favorite bets on UFC 309.

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