UFC 305 Best Bets

UFC 305 Best Bets

UFC 305 is ripe with betting opportunities. The card features a lot of closely lined fights. If you can correctly pick winners, you take some money from the books. Let’s dive into UFC 305 and discuss three fighters that provide solid betting opportunities.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 6:00 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 16.*

Dricus Du Plessis -110

The UFC 305 main event between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya is the first best bet of the night. The bout is a pick’em with both fighters sitting at -110. I’ll make a pick and side with Du Plessis.

I see a few factors that force me to side with Du Plessis. It starts with his pressure. Du Plessis consistently walks his opponents down and throws massive strikes. This is simply hard to deal with. Furthermore, he adds to that pressure with takedowns. It is hard for his opponents to compete without being worn down as the fight continues.

It should also be noted that Du Plessis is one of the most physical middleweights on the roster. Conversely, Adesanya is one of the least physical.

Du Plessis is not perfect. It is entirely possible that Adesanya can use his jab, leg kicks, counters, and movement to outland Du Plessis. That said, at a pick’em price, I’ll take the fighter who is undisputedly in his prime and is the better grappler.

Kai Kara-France +142

The UFC 305 co-main event between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg provides betting value as well. I am siding with the +142 underdog in Kara-France against the -170 favorite in Erceg.

The biggest factor that makes Erceg the favorite is his grappling skills. I believe he is a quality grappler, but I do not expect him to use his grappling as often as the line indicates. In the majority of his fights, Erceg has been willing to trade with opponents on the feet. If he continues that trend, this will be a close fight. If he breaks that trend, Kara-France does have some solid defense grappling skills.

The main reason I am willing to bet on Kara-France is because of his leg kicks. Erceg’s striking style depends on his footwork and ability to get in and out of the pocket. Kara-France has the opportunity to interrupt that movement with his leg kicks. In every fight, Kara-France makes a pointed effort to land leg kicks. If he lands those shots against Erceg, he can affect his movement and begin to pull ahead in the striking exchanges.

At +142, I am willing to bet on the underdog in this UFC 305 matchup in the hopes that we have a striking-based battle that allows him to implement leg kicks into his game plan.

Tai Tuivasa +195

The final bet for UFC 305 is for Tai Tuivasa to beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Tuivasa is currently a +195 underdog while Rozenstruik is a -238 favorite.

Tuivasa is on a poor run as he has lost four consecutive fights. That has many people doubting his commitment to MMA. The issue is that Tuivasa’s run has overshadowed the fact that Rozenstruik has lost four of his last six fights. Those two wins came over an unranked opponent and a fighter that has been cut from the UFC.

It is hard to come up with stylistic reasons for Tuivasa to be this big of an underdog. In a striking-based fight, Tuivasa makes every fight a close brawl. That makes him value when he is a big underdog.

Additionally, Tuivasa’s biggest struggles come against fighters who will kick him in the body or grapple him. Rozenstruik does not do either of those things. The lack of grappling will also allow Tuivasa to operate in the clinch since he does not have to worry about being taken down.

Lastly, Tuivasa will be the much bigger fighter, is more durable and will commit to throwing big stakes. These are all positives against Rozenstruik.

As long as Tuivasa does not have retirement at the forefront of his mind he is the betting side of this matchup. At +195, he is one of the best bets on the board for UFC 305.

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