UFC 296 Best Bets
UFC 296 is here. The event is the final UFC pay-per-view of the year and it’s one of the best cards the promotion has assembled. It is only right that we scour the card for solid betting opportunities. Despite being a stacked card, it is tricky to bet on. That means we had to get a little square. Still, these are some of the best bets available for UFC 296.
*All lines are taken from Draft Kings and are accurate as of noon on Fri, Dec. 15.*
Shavkat Rakhmonov via Submission +120:
At UFC 296, Shavkat Rakhmonov is a massive favorite against Stephen Thompson. Rakhmonov is a -625 favorite while Thompson is a +455 underdog. That money line provides no value on the favorite. That makes Rakhmonov winning by submission the first best bet for UFC 296.
Rakhmonov is a massive favorite in this fight for a reason. The 29-year-old is one of the best up-and-coming prospects while Thompson is a 40-year-old veteran. Regarding skills, Rakhmonov is a well-rounded fighter with elite finishing instincts. At 17-0, he has 17 finishes with nine submissions and eight knockouts.
I fully trust Rakhmonov to finish in this spot. I am not willing to proclaim his inside-the-distance prop is the best bet when it sits at -190. That is low-hanging fruit. Instead, I lean toward the submission. That is Rakhmonov’s easiest path to victory. I do not see a reason why Rakhmonov should strike with Thompson; that plays directly into his opponent’s hand. If Rakhmonov plays it smart, he grapplers early and often. If that is true, his submission skills are potent and can finish the fight.
We are looking at a -650 favorite that has his most probable path of victory lined at +120. That is worthy of a bet at UFC 296.
Paddy Pimblett ITD +110:
The second bet for UFC 296 is for Paddy Pimblett to finish Tony Ferguson. Once again, we are dealing with a wide money line. Pimblett is a -310 favorite while Ferguson is a +250 underdog. The inside-the-distance prop is the best way to go in this spot.
It is pretty evident why this fight was booked. Pimblett is a hyped-up prospect and Ferguson is a massive name that has been dealing with serious struggles. I am willing to bet on that projection.
I believe Pimblett is wildly overrated; however, he has proven finishing ability. If he is going to win a fight, it will probably be a finish. Aside from his controversial victory over Jared Gordon, Pimblett has not won a decision since 2016.
On the other side of things, Ferguson has lost six consecutive fights. The three most recent losses were finishes. At this point, retirement is a very serious possibility for the legend.
Pimblett has clear finish ability and Ferguson is a 39-year-old with questionable durability. I think this fight favors a Pimblett finish. At +100, it makes my UFC 296 bet slip.
Bryce Mitchell -3.5 -105:
The final bet that I like for UFC 296 follows a similar theme as our previous bets. In this fight, Bryce Mitchell is a -218 favorite and Josh Emmett is a +180 underdog. The play here is Mitchell to win on the -3.5 point spread.
If you are unfamiliar with spread betting in MMA, this bet means Mitchell needs to win by more than three points on the judges’ scorecards or finish the fight.
Emmett is another fighter that has been struggling. In his last two fights, he has been dominated. Across seven rounds, he did not win a round and was finished. It does not help that he took a lot of damage in those fights either.
Mitchell is a solid grappler that can easily cover the spread. He will likely be able to take Emmett down and control him. That leads to winning rounds. Plus, he can land submissions. In either outcome, Mitchell covers.
This is one of the best bets for UFC 296 because Mitchell can reasonably make it cash in several ways. A dominant decision and submission are both likely outcomes. I’ll gladly take the spread at -105.
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