UFC 287 Best Bets
After a week off, the UFC is returning with a massive pay-per-view. UFC 287 looks to be a compelling card as the main event features a rematch between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. The rest of the main card is filled with entertaining fights. From a betting perspective, there are a ton of live underdogs. Although, not all of them are worth playing. Let’s break down the underdogs that are worth betting on while also tossing in a few props that are solid plays.
*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday, April 7.*
Gilbert Burns via decision +150
In the co-main event of UFC 287, Gilbert Burns will fight Jorge Masvidal. Burns is a large favorite as he is lined at -450 while Masvidal is a +340 underdog. I will play Burns to win by decision which brings the price tag on Burns to +150.
I really like Burns in this fight. That really is not much of a surprise, though, since he is such a lofty favorite. Burns should be able to use his grappling to control this fight and neutralize Masvidal’s dynamic striking. Burns will also be competitive on the feet as he has solid striking in his own right.
Burns will have finish upside in this fight. He has a ton of power in his punches and terrific BJJ. I am taking him by decision because of Masvidal. In his career, Masvidal has lost 16 fights. Of those losses, he has been knocked out twice and submitted twice.
Furthermore, his only finish loss in the UFC was his knockout loss to Kamaru Usman. In this fight, I think Burns will control a large portion of the fight while Masvidal avoids submission attempts on the ground. That makes Burns by decision at +150 a solid play.
Christian Rodriguez +200
Christian Rodriguez will be taking on Raul Rosas Jr., the youngest fighter to ever sign with the UFC. After impressive showings in his UFC debut and DWCS bout, Rosas is receiving a ton of credit from the bookies. The current line has Rosas as a -250 underdog while Rodriguez is a +200 underdog. I am playing the underdog in this one.
My reasoning for this play is the grappling of Rodriguez. In no world is Rodriguez perfect in that department, but he is good enough to test Rosas’ BJJ.
This will be beneficial for two reasons. The first is because he can keep the fight standing. If Rodriguez can get into striking exchanges with Rosas he should be able to land a ton of big strikes. Plus, providing resistance in the grappling will work to wear on the gas tank of Rosas. That should also help Rodriguez as he has shown to have above-average cardio thus far in his career.
This play will be risky. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Rodriguez will make a mistake that allows Rosas to find a submission. At 18 years old, Rosas is still improving which is always tough to factor into betting. Still, Rodriguez has the necessary skills to win this fight. That makes this a solid play at +200.
Chris Curtis +105
Chris Curtis is set to fight UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 287. The bout is closely lined as Gastelum currently sits as a -125 favorite while Curtis is a +105 underdog. Once again, I’ll take the underdog.
Curtis is not the type of fighter that is fun to fight. Curtis has great boxing. This is highlighted by his striking defense, power, and willingness to attack the body. To add to his boxing, Curtis has sensational takedown defense. In a fight against Gastelum, that will be useful. As long as this fight stays standing, Curtis will land the powerful shots, but Gastelum should fight with more output. The one thing that Gastelum has on his side is that he has a great chin. Still, I think Curtis will land enough powerful shots to win a decision.
It is also important to note that Gastelum is at a low point in his career. In his last six fights, he is 1-5. Sure, he fought elite competition like Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. At the same time, his only win came against Ian Heinisch and he lost to Darren Till, which was Till’s last win. On top of that, he has pulled out of his last two fights with an injury.
Overall, the skills push in the direction of Curtis while Gastelum’s poor form only strengthens my confidence in playing the underdog.
Sam Hughes vs. Jaqueline Amorim DNGTD -130
The final bet comes from the UFC 287 early prelims where Sam Hughes fights Jaqueline Amorim. Amorim is the favorite at -275 while Hughes is lined at +220. I am not picking a side though. Instead, I will take the fight does not go the distance at -130.
This is pretty simple. Amorim has great BJJ. In her career, Amorim is 6-0 with five submission wins. In this fight, Amorim has the ability to find a quick submission against Hughes. If she can not find a finish she will slow down in the later rounds. That will open the door for Hughes as she weaponizes her pace in the late rounds to hunt a finish of her own.
In short, Amorim will either find a submission or she will tire and allow Hughes to finish her in the later rounds. I will gladly play the fight to end inside the distance.
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