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Sports Media
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The Detroit Lions have been the best team in the NFC this season. They currently sit atop the conference at 9-1, leading in point differential at plus-159, nearly double the next-highest team (Eagles, +80). They also top the NFL in DVOA while posting the NFC’s highest success rate and second-best EPA/play.
In translation, they’re really good, and they’re dismantling teams–most recently the Jacksonville Jaguars, 52-6.
According to Action Network’s consensus rankings, they are currently the odds-on-favorite to win the Super Bowl. At sportsbooks such as BetMGM, they’re as short as +310; at ESPNBet, they’re at +375 and +360 at Fanduel and BetRivers.
Given their roaring success and how much money the sportsbooks have reportedly taken in for their Super Bowl odds, it would appear to be really bad for the ‘books if the Lions capture their first-ever Super Bowl next February.
“They’re by far our biggest Super Bowl liability and pretty much our only one at this point,” Christian Cipollini, a BETMGM trader said, according to Ben Fawkes of The Athletic. “Anything inside of 10-1 [odds] we don’t tend to build crazy liability that we’re worried about, but everybody has been on them. At this point, the Lions winning the Super Bowl would be a huge problem for us. If I could remove them from futures, I would.
“We hate the Lions … I haven’t seen something like this in my time at BetMGM. Every single week, they’re our worst team.”
Detroit are an NFL-best 8-2 against the spread this season, outscoring their closing line by an average of 10.5 points per game–nearly four points better ATS than any other NFL team (Denver, +6.8 plus-minus ATS). They are also 5-5 on over-under, though all five of those overs have come over the last seven weeks.
Cipollini pointed out that he believed around 95 percent of BET MGM’s wagers last week were tailored toward the Lions against Jacksonville. You even had respected handicappers, such as the Action’s Brandon Anderson, ladder the Lions up to -38.5, which was 20/1. Lo and behold, it cashed.
Oddsmakers currently have the Lions -7.5 against the Indianapolis Colts this week. According to FanDuel, 85 percent of the money (4th-highest) and 87 percent of the bets (highest) are heading in Detroit’s direction.
The Lions, who were 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in February and roughly 22-1 in September, are surging and don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Fortune hasn’t historically been on their side, but this is also looking to be one of, if not the best team in franchise history when it’s all said and done. Will the sportsbooks get their wish?
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