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As he enters the final year of arbitration, the Toronto Blue Jays are “in talks” with slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for a long-term extension, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported Thursday evening.
“The Jays are in talks with Guerrero about a long-term extension that would buy him out of his final year of arbitration and free agency,” Rosenthal wrote. “Signing Guerrero would be a major step toward re-establishing the franchise’s credibility. But in the wake of Juan Soto’s record 15-year, $765 million free-agent contract, the price will be steep. Guerrero is projected to earn almost $30 million in his final year of arbitration and would hit the market entering his age-27 season. That’s only one year older than Soto was as a free agent.”
Guerrero, entering his age-26 season, had a resurgent 2024 with the Toronto Blue Jays, slashing .323/.396/.544 with a 166 OPS+. He blasted 30 home runs and 103 RBIs in 159 games, though he hit a career-high 44 doubles. His .323 batting average was also a career-high, while his OPS+ was one percent away from tying his career-best set in 2021.
The 6-foot-2 slugger was expected to be one of the most prized free agent bats in not a very strong class in the 2026 offseason, in addition to Kyle Tucker, who was traded to the Chicago Cubs last week.
The largest free agent contract ever for a first baseman was $248 million, given to Miguel Cabrera from his age-33-40 seasons. Guerrero is expected to spend either the rest of his career at 1B or DH, but that deal was also signed in 2014. I expected Guerrero’s to start around $350 million–a very raw projection.
The Blue Jays have wanted to spend money for the past several years, but have struck out on free agents Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, most notably. They have also been in the hunt for ace Corbin Burnes and Rosi Sasaki, so it’s not like they’re trying to penny-pinch.
The franchise made the postseason in three of their previous four seasons before going 74-88 last season. The organization could command a haul, even though he’s on an expiring contract. Though re-signing him and figuring it out from there would be a step in the right direction and could create a domino effect for other free agents, depending on their ensuing order of operations.
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