NHL Power Rankings: December 2024

NHL Power Rankings: December 2024

We’re officially on the past side of Thanksgiving, marking a critical milestone for the playoff race as we shape another NHL power rankings. Every team on the outside faces an uphill battle to make it, and if you’re more than just a few points out, the odds are stacked against you. Even teams that struggled early, like last year’s Edmonton Oilers, typically at least show some signs of snapping out of their skid (but not always, lest we forget about the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues).

Speaking of the 2018-19 Blues, two teams, including the Blues themselves (and the team they beat in the 2019 Final), pulled their tactic of a November coaching change. It doesn’t feel like the big picture changed much for any team over November, but a few have the ball rolling in a different direction than they did in the first few weeks. There will be more clarity in 2025, but here’s how Trey Daubert and I see things now.

32. Anaheim Ducks (10-11-3, November: T-27)

Andrew: 30, Trey: 31

It’s genuinely impressive that the Anaheim Ducks are at the bottom of this list despite having one of the league’s best goalie tandems now that John Gibson has returned. Frank Vatrano‘s 37-goal bender last year appears to be a one-off, leaving the Ducks even lighter on offense than before. Defense is the main concern, with Anaheim dead last in shots against and 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60.

T-29. Chicago Blackhawks (8-16-2, November: T-27)

Andrew: 32; Trey: 28

The dreaded sophomore slump appears to be striking Connor Bedard. The 19-year-old is stuck at only five goals (one behind Craig Smith) and moved to the wing because his overall game wasn’t where it needed to be (maybe because his face-off rate is just 30%). Other Blackhawks matter, too — Ryan Donato is producing nicely, and their goaltending has been surprisingly stout. The good news is the league’s focus is now back on them. The bad news is the reason why.

Chicago Blackhawks General Manager Kyle Davidson announced today that the team has relieved Luke Richardson of his duties as head coach.

📝: https://t.co/LfOt4tMefC pic.twitter.com/BvQNDM9acH

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) December 5, 2024

T-29. Montréal Canadiens (9-13-3, November: T-30)

Andrew: 31; Trey: 29

It was great to see Patrik Laine return to the lineup and the scoresheet this week. Less ideal is that by scoring, he’s just one goal behind Juraj Slafkovský, Christian Dvorak, and Joel Armia. Continued success for Cole Caufield does bode very well for the Canadiens’ long-term outlook. The Habs will need some young players to leap from good to game-breaking and it appears Caufield is doing that.

T-29. San Jose Sharks (10-13-5, November: 32)

Andrew: 28; Trey: 32

Since starting 0-7-2, the San Jose Sharks have been feeling good, with a legitimately great 10-3-3 record since. They’re pretty fortunate to be on that run with a 43.65% expected goals share since Oct. 27, although their PDO isn’t absurdly lucky. As long as the kids are producing, with William Eklund and Macklin Celebrini scoring at a 70-point pace, the Sharks will be fine regardless of the wins and losses.

28. Pittsburgh Penguins (11-12-4, November: 28)

Andrew: 23; Trey: 30

Despite some minor trades, returning Lars Eller to a familiar place and buying low on Philip Tomasino, the Pittsburgh Penguins feel stuck. Tristan Jarry has been better since an AHL conditioning stint but still has work to do and Alex Nedeljkovic isn’t up to par either. Other than Rickard Rakell, no one else up front outside of the two big guns has stepped up. This may be the least talented team of the Sidney Crosby–Evgeni Malkin era since their rookie 2005-06 squad that had 58 points. This year’s team shouldn’t bottom out that badly, but they’d probably be better off if they did.

T-26. Seattle Kraken (12-13-1, November: 20)

Andrew: 25; Trey: 26

Speaking of teams that feel stuck, it’s not a good sign for a general manager when a coaching change and two marquee free-agent signings don’t galvanize a team. It especially hurts when one of them (Chandler Stephenson) has the team’s worst xGF% (40.02) and the team has been outscored 20-11 with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Still, it will take a lot of work for him to beat out Philipp Grubauer (.862 save percentage, -6.7 goals saved above expected) for the worst contract on the team. At this rate, Ron Francis may not get the chance to have someone else join them.

T-26. Columbus Blue Jackets (11-10-3, November: T-27)

Andrew: 24; Trey: 27

The Columbus Blue Jackets continue to defy overall expectations and develop an identity. Columbus is a top-10 team in goal scoring, shot creation, and expected goal generation. Zach Werenski in particular is leveling up and earned a well-deserved spot on Team USA’s Four Nations Faceoff roster. Their 5-on-5 defensive play hasn’t been terrible but their penalty kill is a major weakness. But the most important moment of their season happened on Tuesday.

Not a dry eye to be found.

25. Detroit Red Wings (10-11-4, November: 25)

Andrew: 29; Trey: 21

We might be nearing the uncomfortable conversation stage with Steve Yzerman. The Detroit Red Wings’ progress in the last few years came slower than anticipated, but at least it was happening. Through two months, it sure looks like the team isn’t just stagnating but taking a step back. Even their lone selling point (power play success) took a hit as Detroit dropped from first to 15th in expected goal creation on the main advantage. Getting to last year’s 91-point total will be an uphill battle and losing it could have serious consequences.

24. Ottawa Senators (10-12-2, November: 17)

Andrew: 26; Trey: 23

No team loses hope faster in a season than the Ottawa Senators. The Buffalo Sabres may have a longer playoff drought, but at least they’ve given their fans some fun Novembers during their malaise. Since 2017-18, the Senators have never been better than 23rd in the league at the end of November bottom five every season but one. There are reasons to believe, mainly that the team is in the top 10 in shots for and against. But Ottawa has done the opposite of earning the benefit of the doubt.

T-22. Nashville Predators (7-13-6, November: 19)

Andrew: 27; Trey: 20

Speaking of not earning the benefit of the doubt it’s much harder to write off one disappointing month for the Nashville Predators than two. They’ve already seen Tomasino and Dante Fabbro leave and be more productive with their new teams and Barry Trotz is moving into ultimatum territory. Unless there’s an immediate bump in offense, it feels like something big is coming here. Whether that’s a benching, trade, coaching change, or something else remains to be seen.

T-22. New York Islanders (9-10-7, November: 21)

Andrew: 22; Trey: 25

Even though they’ve been solid defensively overall, the New York Islanders’ struggles to hold late leads has them in the Metropolitan Division basement. Their league-leading seven overtime/shootout losses are concerning. The same goes for Noah Dobson’s scoring regression, although at least he’s still driving play.

21. Calgary Flames (13-9-4, November: T-25)

Andrew: 20; Trey: 22

It looked like the Calgary Flames were in a position to free fall at the end of October after a strong start. But the Flames continue to hang around thanks to Dustin Wolf throwing his hat in the center of the Calder Trophy ring. The Flames are all over the place stats-wise, but like Columbus, they deserve all of the positivity after Tuesday’s emotional night.

20. Philadelphia Flyers (12-10-3, November: T-30)

Andrew: 16; Trey: 24

Call them the opposite of the Islanders because while the Philadelphia Flyers are last in the NHL with five regulation wins, they’re also one of the league’s hottest teams with a 7-2-1 record in their previous 10 games. Matvei Michkov is still in the spotlight with three overtime winners as a teenager. However, two other Russians (goaltenders Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov) are even more responsible for the team’s strong November.

19. Utah Hockey Club (10-11-4, November: 18)

Andrew: 21; Trey: 18

Utah Hockey Club has a solid core four emerging up front, with all of Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, and Nick Schmaltz at the 20-point mark. But outside of them and Mikhail Sergachev not much else pops. Karel Vejmelka‘s bounce back (.917 SV%) has been canceled out by Connor Ingram‘s regression (.871 SV%).

T-17. St. Louis Blues (12-12-2, November: 23)

Andrew: 17; Trey: 19

Even though Doug Armstrong has an end date in sight, he’s not coasting into retirement. First, it was offer sheets in the summer, then it was firing Drew Bannister after 76 games when Jim Montgomery became available. He’s turned the Blues from dismal to decent at 5-on-5 and the team has rewarded him with a 3-0-1 start. The new coach bump won’t last forever, but this could be the jolt the Blues needed (as well as the return of Robert Thomas).

T-17. Buffalo Sabres (11-12-2, November: 24)

Andrew: 18; Trey: 18

When it looked like the Buffalo Sabres might be figuring things out with a 7-2-0 stretch in the middle of the month, a four-game losing streak has them back behind the eight-ball. Combine that with a Tage Thompson snub for Team USA’s Four Nations Faceoff roster and Buffalo’s good vibes feel short-lived.

16. Boston Bruins (14-11-3, November: 16)

Andrew: 19; Trey: 16

The Boston Bruins are also getting a new coach boost, starting the Joe Sacco era 6-2-0 with a 53.16 xGF% (they were at 50.78% with Montgomery). Jeremy Swayman also appears to be getting comfortable, registering an SV% above .900 in four of his last five, eclipsing .930 three times in that stretch. That should be enough to get the Bruins back on track, although their center core still looms as a weakness.

15. New York Rangers (13-10-1, November: 3)

Andrew: 15; Trey: 12

The New York Rangers have had flaws in years past, but it’s usually taken an elite team in a tense playoff series to expose them. Things have taken a turn for the worst much earlier this year with losses in six of their last seven and trade rumors abound. Not mixing up the defense in the offseason doesn’t appear to be aging well as the Rangers are near the bottom of the league in shots and 5-on-5 xG allowed. Their penalty kill yields too many chances, although the NHL’s second-best shorthanded save percentage keeps that area afloat.

14. Los Angeles Kings (15-8-3, November: 15)

Andrew: 10; Trey: 15

After three straight first-round exits and a disappointing offseason, the Los Angeles Kings became one of the more popular picks to fall from the playoff picture. But the team didn’t get the memo, going off their top xG generation and prevention rates at 5-on-5. Remember, they’re doing this without Drew Doughty, too.

13. Minnesota Wild (17-4-4, November: 10)

Andrew: 9; Trey: 14

The Minnesota Wild didn’t fall much in our individual rankings, so it’s unlucky that they dropped by three spots in the overall field. It’s hard to beat having the league leader in scoring (Kirill Kaprizov, albeit in a three-way tie) and SV% (Filip Gustavsson, who’s showing last year’s drop-off was an aberration). Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi‘s emergence should give them enough scoring to sustain their early-season success.

12. Colorado Avalanche (14-12-0, November: 13)

Andrew: 12; Trey: 10

My ranking of the Colorado Avalanche was largely under the assumption that Alexandar Georgiev was figuring things out. After all, he followed up an unplayable October (.822 SV%) with a respectable November (.901 SV%). Then, he allowed four goals on eight shots Tuesday against Buffalo. Somehow, the Avs won that game, and they deserve credit for weathering the early storm of absences they faced. But it won’t matter if they don’t start getting saves.

11. Winnipeg Jets (18-8-0, November: 7)

Andrew: 8; Trey: 13

The Winnipeg Jets were poised for a major boost halfway through November, but then they appeared to go into an early food coma (or late, since Thanksgiving in Canada is in October). Losses in seven of 10 since Nov. 14 combined with unspectacular 5-on-5 metrics raise concerns that Winnipeg may be a bit of a paper tiger. They’ve built up the type of cushion that gives them time to figure things out.

T-9. Tampa Bay Lightning (12-9-2, November: T-11)

Andrew: 14; Trey: 6

Despite a lot of roster turnover, the Tampa Bay Lightning remain one of the league’s top-scoring teams, particularly on the power play. Brayden Point won’t shoot 36.4% forever, nor will Anthony Cirelli maintain his 20.8% rate. Unfortunately, Colorado’s goalie struggles appear to be hindering former Av Jonas Johnasson by proxy, which could create a difficult balance for Jon Cooper to manage.

T-9. Vancouver Canucks (13-7-4, November: 9)

Andrew: 13; Trey: 7

The rich are about to get richer as the already incredibly stingy Vancouver Canucks should welcome back Thatcher Demko soon, and J.T. Miller’s spot on Team USA for the Four Nations Faceoff means he probably won’t be out super long either. Combine that with a stellar November from Elias Pettersson and you’ve got a team whose record should start to reflect their status as a contender in the Western Conference.

8. Washington Capitals (17-6-2, November: T-11)

Andrew: 7; Trey: 11

After a quality offseason, I thought the Washington Capitals would remain a playoff team this year. But nobody saw a first-place spot in the Eastern Conference two months into the season coming. Even an Alex Ovechkin injury hasn’t derailed things. Adding Eller makes Washington deeper and more experienced down the middle, which never hurts.

7. Toronto Maple Leafs (16-7-2, November: 14)

Andrew: 5; Trey: 9

Just like with Washington, sometimes losing a star player for a little bit can have positives in the big picture. The Toronto Maple Leafs fixed their power play and got a John Tavares resurgence while Auston Matthews was on the shelf, and he’s right back to scoring nasty goals. Perhaps more importantly, Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz might be the league’s best goalie tandem, as both sport an SV% above .920.

6. Vegas Golden Knights (17-7-3, November: 5)

Andrew: 11; Trey: 2

The two biggest gaps in our rankings are each of our favorite teams, with a bit of bias probably present in my Flyers and Trey’s Vegas Golden Knights ranks. The Golden Knights have been a strong offensive team despite questions at the wing and injuries to key forwards. Granted, Brett Howden probably isn’t shooting 22.2% much longer (even though he’s now under contract for a while), but they’re more than just surviving right now.

5. Edmonton Oilers (13-10-2, November: 8)

Andrew: 4; Trey: 8

Why do the Edmonton Oilers get more leeway than the teams below them? Because they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Even though nearly every offseason pickup has underachieved and Stuart Skinner is copy-and-pasting last year’s first two months, there’s a floor for Edmonton’s status as long as those two are healthy. This must be how the College Football Playoff Committee feels, huh?

4. Florida Panthers (15-9-2, November: T-1)

Andrew: 6; Trey: 3

Adding another defenseman would help, but what the Florida Panthers need is for Sergei Bobrovsky to rediscover his A-game. There’s not much else to worry about in Sunrise, although it’s impossible to fully trust a 36-year-old goaltender, even one with Bobrovsky’s pedigree.

T-2. New Jersey Devils (17-9-2, November: 4)

Andrew: 3; Trey: 4

This is what we expected to see last year from the New Jersey Devils. After a one-year dip, the Devils are looking like one of the league’s dominant teams. All of their regular defensemen are driving play and their top forwards have also been as advertised. Don’t let last season fool you — New Jersey is not to be taken lightly.

T-2. Carolina Hurricanes (16-8-1, November: 6)

Andrew: 2; Trey: 5

Though they’re in a slightly rough patch right now, the Carolina Hurricanes are still a dominant play-driving force. You could argue they should be lower with Frederik Andersen out long-term and Pyotr Kochetkov also going down. But the Canes have dealt with goalie injuries before and it never seems to phase them. We’ll see if things change this time.

NHL Power Rankings: November 2024

1. Dallas Stars (16-9-0, November: T-1)

Andrew: 1; Trey: 1

Our rankings were assembled before the Dallas Stars announced Tyler Seguin is likely done for the regular season, which hurts given how well he was playing. But if he returns for the playoffs and the Stars can weaponize their newfound $9.5 million in cap space, maybe it works out in the long run. Either way, it would be nice if this is the wake-up call Jason Robertson needs to rediscover his 2022-23 form.

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