Max Fried Is The Free Agent Starter You Want

Max Fried Is The Free Agent Starter You Want

Blake Snell is the first major free agent off the board this Winter after signing with the Dodgers. Sorry, not sorry, but I think you’re an insane person if you’re upset about Snell landing with the Dodgers. That contract is gross and I would have never been able to attach my name to that deal. The smart people already know that Max Fried is the real starting pitcher that teams should covet this offseason.

Before I begin, I encourage you to evaluate the evaluator. I am very much of the opinion that responsible big market clubs allow themselves to spend on a major free agent pitching contract every three seasons. You have to be very careful about investing in the wrong pitcher. The last time I wrote a post like this, it was for Zack Wheeler. I’m doing it again with Fried and haven’t advocated for someone since (outside of Yamamoto last year).

Fried, 30, represents easily the safest option of all the high end starters on the market and I’m not sure it’s arguable. I’ve already advocated for the Red Sox to sign him for several reasons.

Let’s just go over a few bullet points here that really matter:

A: The guy is consistent and I feel like I know what I’m getting when he takes the mound. Don’t overlook that fact because a lot of pitchers go on rollercoaster swings that you can’t forecast. Fried has been at the big league level for eight seasons. He’s had ONE season with an ERA over four and that was back in 2019. That 2019 season, his ERA+ was 114. By far his lowest mark ever and it was still significantly better than league average.

Better yet, half of his seasons at the MLB level, Fried has posted an ERA under three. That’s incredible. Yes, Fried has been hurt in the past on occasion but we’re still talking about a guy who crossed the 160 inning mark four different seasons. Fried has proven he can eat innings and performs every time he takes the mound. It doesn’t get better than that when we’re talking about available starting pitching.

B: He fields his position quite well. He’s won the Gold Glove three different times. He’s far from a liability in that area.

C: Fried is the king at creating weak contact and groundballs. Something that should be valued far more in the industry. Sure, you can chase the strikeout kings but those guys fade when the stuff fades. Fried is more of an artist and he numbers here don’t lie. Last season, Fried ranked in the 95th percentile in exit velocity and 96th percentile in groundball rate. He also ranks extremely high in hard hit% and barrell%.

Translation… hitters rarely have a quality at-bat against the guy. The hitter often times tells you everything you need to know about the pitcher and the evidence here can’t be ignored. If anything, teams should be foaming at the mouth to acquire him.

D: There are just a lot of checked boxes here. Former 7th overall pick in 2012. Lefty starter. 6-foot-4. Extremely consistent. Check. Check. Check. Check.

E: The stuff is gross. Fried features a four seamer, curveball, sinker, changeup, sweeper, slider, and cutter in his arsenal. That’s not a fake list either. The curveball is probably his best pitch and it’s absolutely gross in a good way. Batters hit just .154 against that pitch last season with a 37% whiff rate. When you have an out pitch like this, you’re going to be successful. It’s not an accident why a guy like this has had success in the past. You can’t put a price tag on a pitcher having an out pitch like this.

Past performance predicts future achievment. When you have an out pitch like this, I’ll bet on his odds to continue that success.

The team that signs Max Fried will win the offseason. Mark my words. This is the starter you want. If the rest of the industry doesn’t want to value him the way they should because the strikeout rate isn’t high enough, make sure to laugh at them along the way for being uneducated. Heed the warning.

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