One of the hardest players for me to evaluate during the 2020 NFL Draft is LSU wide receiver, Justin Jefferson. Don’t get me wrong, Jefferson is a really good player. We’re talking about a receiver who is coming off a season with 111 catches, 1,540 yards, and 18 touchdowns. There is a lot to like with Jefferson. There is also a lot of question marks and red flags when discussing his NFL outlook. Let’s go over the Justin Jefferson 2020 NFL Draft Profile.
One thing we have to try to do is figure out where the production came from. Especially when you consider the fact that 2018 – (54 catches, 875 yards, and six touchdowns) looked a lot worse than 2019. So what’s the deal? Was it Joe Burrow’s ascension, Joe Brady’s play calling, or Jefferson’s overall improvement?
It might be fair to point out that maybe Jefferson is just better suited for the slot. LSU’s primary formation under Joe Brady was a three by one set with Ja’Marr Chase by himself and Justin Jefferson in the slot in the bunch. Jefferson was able to carve up defenses in the slot. Is it a good thing that Jefferson found his niche or worse that he was less effective playing on the outside. Jefferson played 81 percent of his snaps in the slot in 2019 compared to 29 percent in 2018. Do with that information as you will.
From a measurable standpoint, Justin Jefferson checks in at 6-foot-1, 202, and plus speed. The gap in production may be a concern but the tools are there. 4.43 speed and 37.5 inch vertical show that sort of attributes Jefferson brings to the table. I thought he ran really good routes at the combine and just looked like a great athlete moving around in general.
There are a lot of ways to interpret the LSU season last year. Mine would be that the coaching and supporting talent is what made Joe Burrow look so good last year. Time will tell if I’m right. One piece of evidence that would go towards supporting that is Jefferson’s contested catch ability. I know, we raise our eye brows with contested catch guys but nobody was better in that aspect than Jefferson in this draft class.
The way Jefferson is able to attack and high point the football are outstanding. That’s probably going to translate to the next level. In balls that were considered “contested catch” situations, Jefferson caught 12 of 13 balls thrown in his direction. That’s BANANA LAND! We’re talking about doing that in the SEC too. Nobody is better at contested catches and Jefferson does an amazing job just plucking balls out of the air.
Justin Jefferson is a way better athlete than most give him credit for. The combine performance showed that. Many suggested the move to the slot helped because he couldn’t beat press coverage. I’m not sure I buy that. Burrow just wasn’t productive last year. Additionally, Jefferson had 24 broken tackles after the catch. I don’t get any sense that physicality is an issue.
Jefferson wasn’t a high recruit with his only other offer coming from Tulane. It might be hard to overlook that but at the end of the day, this is a great athlete so the recruiting concerns shouldn’t be an issue. Add in the fact that Jefferson clearly proved he belonged. It’s not easy to start for a school like LSU.
At the end of the day, I think Justin Jefferson probably belongs in the first round but he’s far from a guarantee to play like one. Will that contested catch ability remain? What if he was a product of Joe Brady? What if he can only be a real threat in the slot? He might not be totally bust proof but Jefferson should still be that third wide receiver off the board behind Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. Jefferson is a significantly better option than players like Brandon Aiyuk or Denzel Mims who don’t even belong in the discussion.
