Is Jon Sumrall the next-best college football head coach on the rise?

Is Jon Sumrall the next-best college football head coach on the rise?

We are nearing the end of the 2024 college football regular season, with multiple teams still vying for a 12-team playoff bid. One of those teams is Tulane, who clinched a spot in the American Athletic Conference Title last weekend after shutting out Navy 35-0.

One name you might hear about over the next several weeks is first-year Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall, whose meteoric rise deserves attention. Is he college football’s next-best head coach on the rise? Is he the next diamond in the rough that few people know about? Let’s talk about it.

Sumrall, 42, had one other head coaching gig before 2024: Troy. He was also an assistant at Kentucky, his alma mater, San Diego, Tulane, Troy and Ole Miss before his first head coaching gig, mostly coaching linebackers while being a co-DC at multiple different spots.

He eventually returned to Troy after the 2021 season, the team’s third-straight five-win season under then-head man Chip Lindsey. The program was in a brief state of mediocrity. While they were No. 17 in returning production heading into 2022, Sumrall won 12 games his first season, winning their program’s seventh Sun Belt championship–first since 2017.

The 2022 Sun Belt Coach of the Year then doubled up his effort by going 11-2 in 2023, repeating as SBC champions despite returning far less production. They ranked just outside the top-25 in SP+ on defense while placing just outside the top-40 on offense, outscoring conference opponents by an average of 21.4 points per game.

He took the Tulane gig in December, previously led by now-Houston head coach Willie Fritz. It was one of the best G5 programs in each of the previous two seasons, going a combined 23-5 with one AAC Title (’22). So Tulane’s success isn’t completely out of nowhere.

Though they lost their program’s all-time leading passer in Michael Pratt, resulting in question marks about how good the program would actually be in 2024. Yet, believe it or not, Tulane’s the fifth-highest scoring team in the entire country with an elite defense and special teams. That’s not nothing.

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The Greenwave’s only two losses this year were to then-No. 17-ranked Kansas State and then-No. 15-ranked Oklahoma by seven and 15 points, respectively. Their eight wins against D-1 opponents have come by an average of 27.9 points, including by 37.3 points each of the last three weeks against Charlotte, Temple and once-ranked Navy. Are they elite wins? Not by any means. But, again, that’s not nothing.

Sumrall could be on the precipice of winning his third conference title in three seasons. Regardless if it’s this coaching cycle or the next, or even the one after that, there’s a chance his phone starts to ring a lot more than it currently has. He’s had remarkable defenses in three stops and is 32-6 in three seasons as a head coach.

Who knows if this success will continue, but they’re on schedule to have another solid recruiting class in 2025. Few people have heard about his success, but I’m here to warn you and tell you that his name should be one to monitor. What he’s doing is worthy of attention. None of this appears to be a fluke–he may actually be a born winner that someone will take a chance on down the line.

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