Is the Philadelphia 76ers’ sluggish start too late to salvage?

Is the Philadelphia 76ers’ sluggish start too late to salvage?

The Philadephia 76ers are off to their worst 14-game start in nearly a decade, starting 2-12. There have only been three other times in franchise history that the organization began the season worse: In 2014-15 and 2015-16, when they were actively tanking during the Sam Hinkie years, and 1972-73.

In each of those three seasons, they started 0-14. In only one other season (1992-93) did it begin 2-14, ultimately finishing 18-64. I doubt the 76ers finish that poorly, given the star power that Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey all possess when they’re on the court.

Durability and reliability are the biggest issue, however, especially with Embiid and George, who have deep track records of (lower-body) injuries. They also don’t have any noticeable culture, which is an even bigger issue. Thus, even though the season is only a month old, is it too late for the 76ers to salvage in a significantly below-average East?

Can the Philadelphia 76ers make the play-in, at the very least?

There are only four teams in the East with a .500 or better record. Yes, you read that right … only FOUR! The Cleveland Cavaliers are an NBA-best 16-1, followed by the Boston Celtics (12-3), New York Knicks (9-6) and Orlando Magic (10-7), who have won seven of their past eight games despite star forward Paolo Banchero missing all but five games due to injury.

As it stands right now, the 76ers are just 3.5 games out of the final play-in spot in the East, owned by the reigning Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers. They are tied with the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets and Milwaukee Bucks at 6-9. That’s a whole lot of, as today’s kids describe it, “mid.”

It’s still going to be an uphill battle for Philadelphia. History is not on their side when it comes to making the playoffs. Since the merger (1976-77), only five teams have made the postseason after starting 2-12 or worse in their team’s first 14 games–and only twice since the turn of the century.

The most recent example is the 2021-22 New Orleans Pelicans, who finished the season 36-46 as the No. 9 seed in the Western Conference before beating the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers in the play-in game.

Given how bad the East is, in theory, it’s not unrealistic that Philadelphia can still make the play-in, which is currently their best shot. No non-top-4 seed has won more than seven games, with seeds 5-10 possessing a combined 38-53 (.418) record–equivalent to a 34-win team over an 82-game season. That’s awful.

Though it obviously hasn’t been much better for the team in The City of Brotherly Love through the first 14 games. There’s no culture. There’s little accountability. There’s zero lineup or role continuity.

Rookie Jared McCain has been a huge boost, as has offseason signee Guerschon Yabusele, but few of the other offseason additions–in addition to Embiid and George, when they’ve been on the floor–have consistently provided enough impact to win games. That’s why they’re 2-12.

George recently re-aggravated his knee that was previously injured while the organization is being extra cautious with Embiid. Maxey recently returned on a minutes restriction, but their best opportunity to make the playoffs is if their other two stars are consistently healthy. Injuries aren’t always predictable, but have we seen anything to suggest that might happen before it’s too late? I’d argue no.

It’s difficult to build any sort of rhythm if players are in and out of the lineup. They’ve already had eight different starting lineups in 14 games with 14 players having played at least 70 minutes. If that trend continues, the season may be too late to salvage, even if the Eastern Conference doesn’t positively regress as the season goes on.

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