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The CBA Monster Is Coming For The Oklahoma City Thunder
The CBA Monster Is Coming For The Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder have built this team the right way. General Manager Sam Presti is one of the best in the business. He made a huge trade to land Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and picks from the Clippers, which helped set up their win in the NBA Finals. But did Presti build this team too well? Because the CBA monster is headed their way.
The New Rome
I just recently talked about how Adam Silver and his new CBA are destroying the NBA. The Boston Celtics might be the first championship victim of it with the rumors surrounding Jrue Holiday, and soon the Oklahoma City Thunder will be in its sights. OKC has done this by the book. They drafted well, made trades, and attracted free agents. It’s the textbook way to rebuild a franchise.
Part of their gain came at the expense of the New York Knicks. The Knicks are the true first casualty of the new CBA. They were unable to re-sign Isaiah Hartenstein because of the limitations it would’ve put on them. OKC swoops in and gets a solid rebounder. Imagine this Knicks squad but with Hartenstein? Great chance we see them rather than Indiana in the Finals.
Ticking Time Bomb
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning the MVP, he is now eligible to sign a supermax contract that would pay out nearly $80 million annually starting in 2027. He could also sign another deal this offseason that would give him around a $54 million salary. Whichever way it goes, that is roughly 35% of OKC’s salary cap.
With these numbers, along with current percentage trends of increasing the NBA salary cap and new TV deals, we have a good picture of what the salary cap could look like a few years from now. We’re looking somewhere in the $200 million range. But before we talk about the long-term implications of the salary cap, we first need to figure out what value the other players on the roster are. These numbers were figured up by looking into current market trends in the NBA, increased salary cap, and comparing each player to similar skillsets across the league.
- Chet Holmgren – $35-42M/year
- Jalen Williams – $30-42M/year
- Cason Wallace – $18-25M/year
- Ousmane Dieng – $4-7M/year
- Jaylin Williams – $4-6M/year
- Isaiah Joe -$10-15M/year
- Lu Dort -$16-20M/year
The Window
Based on these calculations, by the time we get to the 2027-28 season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will hover around the second apron, if not surpass it. Now this number does include the final year of Alex Caruso’s deal, and assuming OKC actually uses their picks. They could always trade and consolidate. However, the new CBA makes that difficult.
And that is the crux of the issue for OKC. A key part of building a dynasty is flexibility. Even under previous CBAs, it was hard to keep a large core together. Egos inflate, guys want more money, and a host of other things get in the way. But now, if you draft really well, you’ll only be able to keep a large core together if they all agree to take huge pay cuts. It sounds easy, but that could not be further from the truth. Though these guys will be making millions of dollars already, more times than not, they are going to want every penny they can get. Money gets in the way of the big picture.
Dynasty or One Hit Wonder?
At the end of the day, the Oklahoma City Thunder accomplished their mission. Winning a title is no easy feat, and it only gets harder from here. OKC is now the 7th different team to win a championship in the last seven years. The Toronto Raptors started this trend by beating an injured Golden State team, and no team has repeated since. Most of these teams have run into the same issues. Guys get too expensive; they have to move off a few key guys, then one thing goes wrong, and they become uncompetitive.
The Nuggets have struggled to find good rotational pieces. The Warriors are aging and have also been inconsistent with rotational players. The Celtics were injured and are already rumored to be shopping Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to save money. It’s the same story for every previous champion. Granted, the Thunder are in a unique position, but nothing is guaranteed.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will have some tough choices in the next few years. To all Thunder fans, enjoy this one. Pray that your organization signs everyone as quickly as possible and that everyone remains selfless. History says otherwise, so we shall soon see.
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