Boston Celtics must trade Jaylen Brown for Damian Lillard
The Boston Celtics should trade Jaylen Brown & Malcolm Brogdon to the Portland Trailblazers for Damian Lillard this off-season.
Damian Lillard vs. Jaylen Brown:
Lillard is still historically great
Damian Lillard is going to be 33-years-old next season but is coming off a campaign where he averaged 32.2 points and 7.3 assists a game. For context, only six players in NBA history have ever averaged 32 points and seven assists per game in a single season. That list includes:
- Nate “Tiny” Archibald (’72 – ’73)
- Michael Jordan (’88 – ’89)
- Allen Iverson (’05 – ’06)
- James Harden (’18 – ’19 & ’19 – ’20)
- Luka Doncic (’22 – ’23)
Out of all those greats, Lillard recorded the most efficient 32.2 PPG and 7.3 APG season in NBA history with a true shooting percentage of 64.5 percent.
Lillard propelled the Blazers’ offense to an offensive rating (ORTG) of 120.3 when he was on the floor last season. For reference, that rating would rank as the best offense in all of the NBA last season.
For my money, Lillard is somewhere between one of the 5-10 best offensive players in basketball. He’s one of the best shooters in NBA history and can still be the best offensive player on a championship-winning team even as he’s getting up there in age.
Brown has to grow into a complete superstar
Jaylen Brown is a better two-way player, but that’s the only edge I’d give Brown. And Brown showed some real defensive regression in the effort and engagement department last season. Lillard surpasses him in all ways offensively except for athleticism. He’s a flat-out better scorer from every single level and still one of the best playmakers in the league.
Analytically, advanced statistics don’t love Jaylen Brown. The Celtics were 6.2 points worse per 100 possessions when Brown was on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass; Boston had an ORTG of 117.1 (3.4 points worse than the team average) and a DRTG of 112.5 (2.8 points worse than the team average) with Brown on the floor.
The Celtics’ three-best two-man lineups last season didn’t include Jaylen Brown. Their two best three-man lineups last season didn’t include Jaylen Brown. The Celtics’ best four-man lineup didn’t include Jaylen Brown. See a pattern?
I’m not saying that Jaylen Brown is a bad NBA player. Brown is an All-Star caliber talent with a special skill set. He’s a great finisher at the rack and a fluid shot-creator off the dribble when he gets in rhythm.
But I don’t think Brown is a complete offensive player that can single-handedly propel a team to being great. I also don’t know if he’s a great complementary superstar or a winning basketball player right now.
Lillard is an overwhelming upgrade offensively from Jaylen Brown, and he’s a winning player. Not only is Lillard an upgrade from Brown, but I also think he’s a better fit alongside Jayson Tatum.
Fits alongside Jayson Tatum:
Tatum and Brown’s fit together is redundant
Skill-set-wise, Brown and Tatum have legitimate fit redundancies.
Brown is a better player with the ball in his hands. He’s a score-first shot-creator who can get downhill and doesn’t provide much value off-ball to Tatum.
When Brown and Tatum are both on the floor together, you can see the struggles of the fit. Tatum and Brown both tend to stagnate when the other has the ball. They don’t complement each other well and don’t play off each other exceptionally well.
Statistically, Brown shot just 34 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts last season and was just a 35th-percentile cutter, averaging just 1.22 points per possession on cuts.
While Tatum and Brown’s fit is a bit redundant, Tatum and Lillard would not only complement each other, but they would maximize each other and their skill sets.
Lillard and Tatum will maximize each other
Damian Lillard is an elite 3-level scorer who can consistently get downhill, which will open the floor up and unlock Jayson Tatum even more as an off-ball scorer.
Lillard is a special catch-and-shooter who shot his catch-and-shoot attempts at a 37 percent clip last season, providing even better spacing in this Celtic offense. Additionally, the Celtics have struggled to be a dynamic half-court offense and have lacked a dependable creator to go to in late-game situations.Â
Damian Lillard solves that issue, as he’s one of the most dynamic offensive players in all of basketball.
Lillard can kill you out in isolation, where he ranked as the third most efficient isolation scorer (minimum 4 isolation possessions per game) in all of the NBA last season, averaging 1.17 points per isolation possession.
Lillard is also one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in all of the NBA, where he ranked as the 6th most efficient pick-and-roll scorer (Minimum 4 possessions per game) last season, averaging 1.13 points per pick-and-roll possession as a ball-handler.
New CBA:
One of the biggest reasons Jaylen Brown trade rumors have sparked up is because of the new collective bargaining agreement. Under the new CBA, teams will only be able to afford two Supermax players and have limited cap to fill out the rest of their roster.
For an in-depth look at the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, please click the link.
With the new CBA, there is an argument to be made whether the Celtics or any NBA team can be competitive with two Supermax players because of how it will deplete the rest of a team’s rotation.
Inevitably, the Celtics are going to have to pay two superstars. You’re not going to let Jaylen Brown walk for nothing. But, if you are like me, and have questions about whether Tatum and Brown can fit and win a title together, then why would you invest in the duo long-term?
If a trade for Lillard is on the table, the Celtics must pull the trigger.
Why the trade works for both Boston and Portland:
This trade fits everyone’s timelines. The Celtics need a rejuvenating face-lift with a better offensive superstar. The Blazers need to lean into their timetable and go in on somewhat of a rebuild. Damian Lillard desperately needs to contend for a championship and play meaningful basketball while he’s still got great basketball left in the tank. Jaylen Brown needs to go somewhere where he can grow into a primary option.
The Boston Celtics title window drastically opens when you pair two of the 10 best offensive superstars in the NBA today and build an offensive juggernaut.
On the flip of that, the Portland Trailblazers aren’t going to be contending for a title anytime soon. That’s why making a deal for the still-improving 26-year-old two-time All-Star makes sense. You take Brown and kick-start the rebuild alongside Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, and whoever lands in Portland with the No. 3 pick.
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