Answering 10 Questions About the 2025 NCAA Tournament From a Casual College Basketball Watcher

Answering 10 Questions About the 2025 NCAA Tournament From a Casual College Basketball Watcher

Although I’ve been able to produce a ton of video content for Jimmer Range, I really haven’t done as much written college basketball stuff this season as I typically do. Trey Daubert dropped a few questions about the 2025 NCAA Tournament, offering an excellent opportunity to blow the dust off my keyboard and word vomit about the best time of the sporting year.

I appreciate that Trey is very upfront about being a casual college basketball watcher. Working in the content space, there are far too many people this time of year who jump on the bandwagon and pretend to know what they’re talking about. Not gatekeeping, I just want to see a little more intellectual honesty is all. Shoutout to Trey.

For anyone interested in the work I do with Jimmer Range, you can find much of it linked here.

Anyhow, here’s my thoughts on all of Trey’s 2025 NCAA Tournament questions.

10. How Much Should You Worry About Cooper Flagg’s Injury?

As of now, I’m not totally sure how big of a deal the Flagg injury really is. It may dissuade some from picking the Blue Devils to go all the way, but I’d say it’s still worthwhile to pick them to go on a run. Even with their freshman phenom potentially limited, Duke should be fine to get to at least the Sweet 16. I wouldn’t be too concerned about a Jeremy Roach revenge game. Baylor has a relatively high ceiling but a very low floor and has generally underperformed all season.

9. Auburn to the Final Four?

There’s quite a few people who are looking at Auburn with a critical eye after the Tigers dropped three of four to end the season. That’s not a great sign, but when you take in the whole body of work, this team is an absolute wagon. Johni Broome is more than deserving of all the accolades coming his way. The guard rotation is structured such that at least one of Miles Kelly, Tahaad Pettiford, or Denver Jones will go off on any given night. They may have coasted to the end of the season a bit, but this team rocks.

Looking at the bracket, I actually think the best chance for Auburn to lose before the Final Four is against Louisville or Creighton in the Round of 32. The rest of the region could easily descend into complete chaos, which would only increase the likelihood of Auburn going deep. The Tigers don’t appear as invincible right now as they did for the entire season prior, but Bruce Pearl still has an excellent squad.

8. Does Location Matter?

I’m sure someone out there has run the numbers on how much the location of March Madness games matters, but I’ve honestly never really paid any mind to it. I can only process so many variables when filling out my bracket!

If you’re looking for potential “home cooking” type matchups to sway you one way or the other, here’s a couple. Louisville gets to meet Creighton in Lexington, Kentucky – just over an hour away from Louisville’s campus. BYU is playing VCU at altitude in Denver, Colorado. Oregon-Liberty is going down in Seattle, Washington.

Again, I have literally never cared about location when it comes to the bracket. If you’re 50/50 on a game and are looking for an edge somewhere, go for it.

7. Trendy Upsets to Avoid?

It’s worth noting that trendy upset picks are almost always trendy for a reason. There’s typically some sort of matchup advantage, coaching advantage, or something else that people pick up on. Heat Check CBB did a good breakdown of these types of games recently and found that the public actually does a decent job at finding upset candidates.

However, the McNeese over Gonzaga thing last year made absolutely zero sense to me, and still doesn’t. McNeese got absolutely pumped by a far superior team. I’m guessing this is the type of trendy upset pick Trey would like to stay away from.

UCSD and Drake are not 2024 McNeese-type teams. They are each a trendy upset pick for very good reasons, and I won’t go into all of them here. I’m personally staying away from UCSD, as much as I love the Tritons and their massive turnover margin advantage, because I just don’t see what the plan is for matching up with Michigan’s Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. Still, UCSD is very worthy of consideration, as is Drake.

I love High Point’s team, but I will still be picking Purdue to beat them. Liberty and Yale stand out to me as two fun upset candidates that I might be down with.

If you want a high seed that I’m fading, Michigan State is not a team I’m super high on, as crazy as that might sound given that it’s Tom Izzo and such.

6. Is Oregon a Safe Sweet 16 Pick?

Trey brings up a really interesting question, because I think Arizona got a significantly better R64 matchup than Oregon did. While Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona teams have indeed tended to be March Madness letdowns, the Ducks could have a tough time in their opener. Liberty is a really good team that plays at a slow pace and shoots the lights out. I am conflicted because of Dana Altman’s track record, plus the it-factor of Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad. I think Arizona makes pretty easy work of Akron in that game, while the Ducks could have a tough time with Liberty. Oregon has a pretty intriguing ceiling, but I wouldn’t call them a lock for the Sweet 16.

5. Is Georgia Flying Under the Radar?

I think this is a really good question to ask. It’s objectively true that Georgia is being overlooked in the grand scheme of things. However, Georgia beating Gonzaga and Houston (two top-10 KenPom teams) consecutively would legitimately shock me.

To your point about Tennessee, that’s probably the safest team in the Midwest Region to pick for the Final Four. Not only do the Vols have a pretty favorable path, but the Houston-Gonzaga dynamic makes it fairly risky to bank on either of those teams. What’s funny is that I’m not super high on Tennessee, but they got a good enough draw that it’s hard for me to envision them getting bounced as early as I might have picked otherwise. A guarantee that at least one of Houston or Gonzaga gets knocked out early certainly makes things easier for the Volunteers.

4. Which Teams are on Upset Alert?

Something I’ve thought for a few months now – which was reinforced by Will Warren’s recent breakdown – is that the 2025 NCAA Tournament is trending towards being extremely chalky. This would make for little excitement in the early rounds, but some absolutely fantastic matchups later on. We’ll have to see, but Trey did highlight a few teams that could seriously be on upset watch. I’ll go through them here.

• Clemson: Lost a key depth piece in Dillon Hunter for the season, but I’ve been saying this team is better than the Clemson team that went to the Elite Eight last season. That doesn’t mean this group will do the same, but they could. Duke has sort of overshadowed how good this team is.
• Illinois: Objectively a very talented group, but things just haven’t come together as expected this year. As long as they aren’t complete garbage from three, they’re extremely dangerous. (They have generally been complete garbage from three.)
• Michigan: Massive issue with turnovers, which could absolutely kill them against a UCSD team that has an elite turnover margin, but few teams can match up with the Wolverine bigs. Slightly volatile guard play.
• Iowa State: Can’t quit the Cyclones despite their really bad injury luck. Starting guard Keshon Gilbert is out for the year, which is brutal. If fully healthy, these guys would be a legit national title contenders. Lipscomb is experienced with a really good offense and a legit star, so that could spell trouble. I still like the Cyclones to win a game or two off of Curtis Jones and Tamin Lipsey, plus I’m a believer in head coach TJ Otzelberger. Please don’t let me down.
• Memphis: PJ Haggerty is one of the best guards in the country, but the Tigers are fairly volatile and play down to their competition a little too frequently. Looked awesome in the Maui Invitational, so there’s definitely a high ceiling. Two tough games lined up vs. Colorado State and then Maryland.
• Arizona: March is gonna March, but I feel pretty good that they beat Akron.

Trey didn’t bring up Texas A&M, but their play style is so bizarre that they strike me as a boom-or-bust team. I think the Aggies either make some noise or flame out relatively early.

3. Who Makes it Through the Coaching Gauntlet in the West Region?

We got a wild coaching pod in the West Region with Rick Pitino, Bill Self, and John Calipari all meeting up in Providence, Rhode Island. (Deserved shoutout to Omaha head coach Chris Crutchfield, he’s just not quite on that level yet.) Kansas and Arkansas are two very talented teams that have underperformed all season long. Each objectively has the talent to pull off a Sweet 16 run, but St. John’s is a significantly steadier team that I trust far more.

Defensively, the Johnnies are absolutely nasty. The overall shotmaking isn’t always where it needs to be, but RJ Luis, Kadary Richmond, and Zuby Ejiofor are all the type of guy who can go get a bucket when needed. Arkansas could beat Kansas, but I don’t think the Razorbacks have what it takes to win two games. I could see Kansas winning two games, but St. John’s reaching the Sweet 16 seems like the most likely outcome here. It’s not crazy to put Ricky P in the Final Four, but the potential for an offensive disasterclass does scare me a little.

2. Who Are Rising Stars in College Basketball Media?

I love the non-traditional sector of the college basketball media landscape (and not just because I’m part of it). Haven’t done too much scouting this year, but I want to shout out all the guys who do bracketology. That’s an extremely challenging and time-consuming practice that I have no desire to ever pursue. I have immense respect for the guys who do it. It also isn’t an exact science, so I especially appreciate guys that are transparent with their process: JBR Bracketology, T3 Bracketology, and Nick Bateman just to name a few.

Saw a Maryland game with Ryan Hammer this year (we won’t talk about how it went), and he’s the GOAT. I’m planning to do a massive collaboration series ahead of next season, so that will be a great spot to scout out some rising stars. As it stands, there’s so many awesome people I’ve been able to interact with that I don’t have time to mention them all.

He’s been moving in silence lately, but Alex Cervantes is still the man. Absolutely love that dude.

1. How’s Maryland Looking?

All things considered, I feel pretty good about Maryland Basketball this year. My preseason goal for them was just to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament (which sounds really pathetic, but I had good reasons for it), and the Terps passed with flying colors. The beautifully named “Crab Five” is one of the best starting fives in the country. Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been as good as advertised. Rodney Rice is one of my favorite players to watch in the country. Selton Miguel doesn’t get talked about enough for his valuable contributions. Derik Queen is going to be taken very high in the 2025 NBA Draft. JuJu Reese was loyal and has put together an excellent campaign.

All of Maryland’s losses this year have been close, but vibes are high nonetheless. Elite starting group. No. 2 seed in the Big Ten after being picked to finish 10th. Just outside the top 10 on KenPom. The Terps got a pretty good draw despite being sent out West. Kevin Willard’s squad is a sleeper to go on a deep run. Go Terps!

***

SIGN UP for Vendetta Fantasy Contests!

Homefield is the best collegiate apparel brand in the business! Their high-quality designs perfectly and thoughtfully capture the nostalgia of college sports with vintage logos and unique elements you won’t find anywhere else. Homefield has shirts, sweatshirts, hats, and more for 150+ colleges, and they are constantly adding new schools to the lineup!

Click here to check out Homefield and use code JIMMER for 15% off!

SUBSCRIBE to the Vendetta YouTube Channel!

SHOP for Vendetta Merch!