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The NHL’s elimination of the legal tampering period leading up to free agency in 2020 was intended to limit the activity taking place before July 1. If a top player wanted to do a meeting tour with teams before making their decision, like Steven Stamkos did in 2016, they couldn’t start those proceedings until free agency officially opened.
Alas, while tampering can have serious penalties, it’s also rarely enforced. So, it wasn’t surprising to see a bevy of news in the last few days. In fairness, a lot of that has either been restricted free agents, extensions for would-be 2026 free agents, or players re-upping with their old teams. Which is technically what Mitch Marner did… but only so the Vegas Golden Knights could have the star forward under contract for eight years, a deal he was only eligible to sign with his original team.
This year’s free agent class looks relatively light as a result. However, that can make the intrigue even greater, as limited supply with high demand often leads to big mistakes. There are always some diamonds in the rough to find, though. Unlike the players themselves, we’ll wait until everything officially kicks off at noon Eastern Time to begin breaking down the top stories of the day.
Circling back from earlier in the day, we know that A) K’Andre Miller is a Hurricane; B) what it cost to acquire him; C) what it cost to sign him.
The last time the Hurricanes traded a first-round pick for a mercurial Rangers defenseman on a big contract, it worked out pretty well (Brady Skjei at the 2020 deadline). By percentage of the cap at signing, Miller’s 8-year, $60 million contract is only about one percent more of the cap than Skjei’s contract. However, the Hurricanes did give up a fair bit more than that here. Then again, given some of the contracts handed out to defensemen older and less talented than Miller, maybe the Hurricanes were smart to stay away from free agency.
With Marner and Boeser coming off the board, there aren’t many difference-makers on the market. Mikael Granlund is about as close as they come, a veteran with serious defensive concerns but the ability to rack up points. And he’ll be doing that for another Californian team.
The Ducks will probably be fine with this deal if Granlund keeps scoring and rely on their young talent to drive the bus and make up for his warts. Of course, Granlund is 33 years old, so there’s a real chance that he stops scoring at some point during the contract. But the Ducks still have $29 million in cap space after signing this deal, so I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to handle it.
The New York Islanders haven’t been a super-skilled team for a while now, and while it worked for them at the turn of the decade, the last few years have been uninspiring. Last summer, they signed Anthony Duclair on what seemed like a good deal but was marred by injury and underperformance in year one. So, new GM Mathieu Darche is taking a similar swing.
As the chart shows, it’s easy to forget that Jonathan Drouin‘s career was on life support two years ago. A productive stint with the Colorado Avalanche has him back on track, but who knows how productive he’ll be on a less-talented team, especially since he won’t have his old junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon to lead the way. Drouin spent about 57% of his 5-on-5 time with Colorado playing alongside MacKinnon. With him: a 57% expected goals share and a 64-43 goal differential. Without him: 47% xGF, 40-35 goal differential, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Kings don’t have Gavrikov anymore, and it appears they’re going the Moneyball route of trying to re-create him in the aggregate. Then again, Billy Beane probably wouldn’t have touched Cody Ceci with a 10-foot pole at this price.
It’s mind-boggling how teams continue trying to use him. Ceci has struggled mightily in the playoffs the last two years for the Oilers and Dallas Stars, and yet another playoff team is willing to hand him a fairly sizable contract. Fortunately, their other defensive signing, Brian Dumoulin, looks more promising. But if Ceci is getting big minutes in April, it’s likely the Kings won’t play into May once again.
The Utah Mammoth are making a name for themselves on their first July 1 with their new moniker. Utah has signed four players today, headlined by a pair of three-year contracts for Brandon Tanev ($2.5 million average annual value) and Nate Schmidt ($3.5 million AAV). The Schmidt deal seems like a particularly solid one after he had a great bounce-back season in Sunrise, while the Tanev contract comes with a bit more risk. He’s been an effective bottom-sixer in the past, but is also starting to get up there age-wise at 33 years old.
Last year’s Chandler Stephenson contract looked like a risky bet at the time of signing, and his first of seven years with the Seattle Kraken justified those fears. But the mistakes of previous GM Ron Francis aren’t holding new GM Jason Botterill back.
As the chart shows, this would’ve looked like a great contract two years ago for Ryan Lindgren, especially with the rising cap. But his play over the last two seasons has dropped dramatically. Perhaps pairing him with Brandon Montour could help, and Lindgren is just 27 years old, so it’s not like this is an age-related decline. But Seattle still played Lindgren like a quality player even though he hasn’t been for a fair bit.
It’s always eyebrow-raising when the third biggest contract of free agency (an hour in) goes to a forward who’s failed to score 20 points each of the last three seasons.
Of course, the last team to commit this heavily to Tanner Jeannot was the Tampa Bay Lightning, who lived to regret trading a first, second, third, fourth, and fifth-round pick for him in 2023 to the Nashville Predators. Jeannot brings physicality to the table, but his 24-goal rookie season in 2021-22 feels like a firm outlier at this point. You’re going to see a lot of people comparing this to the Marchand contract. They’re not wrong to chide the Bruins for how they handled all of this.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will lead the charge again next season for the Edmonton Oilers (no, they’re not trading McDavid this offseason). However, the group around them will look much different. Perry’s gone, Viktor Arvidsson was traded to the Boston Bruins this morning, Jeff Skinner doesn’t seem like a fit at all, and now Connor Brown is gone, too.
Brown’s first season in Edmonton, coming off an ACL injury, got off to a very rough start. However, he gradually got closer to the 20-goal level he had previously reached with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators. He should be a nice depth winger for the New Jersey Devils, who also re-signed Jake Allen earlier today to hold steady in goal.
This was one of the worst-kept secrets leading up to free agency, and now it’s official.
Vladislav Gavrikov has looked like a legit high-quality defenseman at times and more of a middle-of-the-lineup player at times. The New York Rangers failed to change their blue line last summer and eventually dismantled it during the season. The question is, are the Rangers content with just one big name, or is further shuffling (like a K’Andre Miller trade) necessary? Gavrikov seems like an ideal stabilizer next to Adam Fox, who can hopefully recreate what Ryan Lindgren provided at his best.
Sure enough…
Over the last two seasons, the Philadelphia Flyers have had a team save percentage of 87.8%. Only the actively tanking San Jose Sharks are within one percent of them, and no team with a playoff appearance over the last two years has had a save percentage below 90% during that time. The Flyers didn’t need to get a good goaltender to upgrade their tandem; they just needed a goalie. And they got one.
See? Goalie. Dan Vladar has been the epitome of an average backup goaltender over the last few seasons. He brings stability behind Sam Ersson, but also isn’t going to prevent Ivan Fedotov or Aleksei Kolosov from playing if one of them figures things out. Like Dvorak, the Flyers overpaid, but it’s not a long-term commitment. The Flyers didn’t dramatically improve their ceiling today, but their floor is higher.
Corey Perry had already signed a contract with Ken Holland before when Holland was running the Edmonton Oilers in 2024 after his deal with the Chicago Blackhawks was terminated. After holding in Edmonton after Holland departed following one run to the Stanley Cup Final, Perry is heading south after the Oilers came up just short for a second straight season.
Eventually, Perry will decline too much to be effective, but he’s fighting the aging curve as well as anyone. His 19 goals this season were tied for his most since 2016-17, and his 10 playoff goals were tied for fourth-most with another stellar veteran in Brad Marchand. You do wonder if those two Finals runs will expedite his decline. But with the Los Angeles Kings unable to get past him and the Oilers, they’re just focused on taking the next step.
LA also further bolstered its depth by signing Joel Armia and re-signing Andrei Kuzmenko yesterday. All that is nice, but it feels like the Kings need a bigger jolt than any of those players can provide.
Also worth noting that LA senior adviser Marc Bergevin is very familiar with Armia, acquiring him when he was GM of the Canadiens.
With Elliotte Friedman reporting that Nikolaj Ehlers isn’t expected to sign today, Brock Boeser quickly moved to the top of the winger wish lists. However, Friedman is also reporting that Boeser isn’t leaving the only organization he’s known for the last decade.
It seemed like there was a fairly big disconnect between Boeser and management, especially when general manager Patrik Allvin insinuated no one was seriously interested in him at the trade deadline. Of course, maybe those lukewarm feelings carried over into free agency, and Boeser felt comfortable staying where he is. His hometown Minnesota Wild seemed like a potential fit, although they just acquired a scoring winger (albeit an aging one) in Vladimir Tarasenko. This isn’t a short-term re-up either; Boeser should be a Canuck for life, or at least close to it.
Leave it up to a team that said they didn’t plan to spend much to make the first big signing of free agency. The Philadelphia Flyers signed former Montréal Canadiens center Christian Dvorak to a one-year, $5.4 million contract, per Elliotte Friedman.
It’s an overpay salary-wise, but only for one season. Dvorak was regarded as an up-and-coming second-line center when the Canadiens acquired him from the Arizona Coyotes for a first and second-round pick in 2021 after Jesperi Kotkaniemi left via offer sheet. The Flyers look set down the middle with Dvorak and the recently acquired Trevor Zegras joining Sean Couturier and Noah Cates.
All Contract Information via PuckPedia
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