How Long Will Ilia Topuria Rule The Lightweight Division?

How Long Will Ilia Topuria Rule The Lightweight Division?

The UFC lightweight division has a new king. Former champion Islam Makhachev vacated the title to move up to welterweight. That opened the door for former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria to fight former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira for the undisputed title. Topuria capitalized on the opportunity with a first-round knockout to cement himself as a two-division champion. Now, it’s time to evaluate how long Topuria can rule as the lightweight champion.

The Batch Of Potential Contenders

The UFC lightweight division lacks a clear No. 1 contender. The three names that were mentioned most frequently after UFC 317 were Paddy Pimblett, Justin Gaethje, and Arman Tsarukyan. It is difficult to determine who the front-runner is to secure the title fight. It felt like Gaethje was the most likely before UFC 317, but Pimblett’s interaction with Topuria may have helped him steal a title fight.

Tsarukyan is the toughest fight for Topuria out of the aforementioned trio. That is a result of his size and offensive wrestling skills. I am not projecting that Tsarukyan would use his grappling to win a decision, but he is more likely to win rounds in that manner than anyone else. Still, Topuria’s offensive boxing, power, and grappling defense would make him the heavy favorite.

Pimblett would be a fairly easy matchup for Topuria. Pimblett is the most overrated fighter in the UFC. At the end of the day, it is a fight. Pimblett would have a puncher’s chance, and his submissions are dangerous. If he cannot capitalize on an early mistake, Topuria would smoke him with boxing combinations and test the theory that “Scousers don’t get knocked out”.

Lastly, it is hard to like Gaethje’s odds in a Topuria matchup. He does not have any grappling upside, and Topuria is far more technical and powerful.

The other notable lightweight that could get a title fight down the line is Max Holloway. The catch is that Holloway would have to go on a special run to earn the rematch. The interesting note about Holloway is that he has the best chance to beat Topuria in a striking-based matchup. That is a credit to the level of Topuria, considering he became the first fighter to knock out Holloway.

The Islam Makhachev Debacle

The serious question mark in the lightweight division is Islam Makhachev. It may be unfair, but Topuria and Makhachev will be linked together for years to come. The fight was in high demand at the start of the calendar year. That will remain the case as long as the pair are both in the sport.

It is unlikely we will ever see Topuria against Makhachev. It is even less likely for that fight to take place in the lightweight division. The most plausible way this fight gets booked is that Topuria chases Makhachev up to welterweight.

The only way this fight could be booked at lightweight is if Makhachev’s welterweight run is a failure and he returns to the lower weight class. It would still be more likely that he retires at that point.

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The Verdict

It is hard to predict that Topuria will lose his title in the octagon. At 28 years old, he is the best fighter in he sport. The crazy part is that he is more likely to show improvements rather than decline.

As I’ve alluded to earlier, I will not be predicting any lightweight defeats Topuria. He combination of technical boxing, power, alongside strong grappling is remarkable.

The biggest factors in Topuria’s title reign will be activity and career trajectory. If he fights twice a year, he could quickly reach Makhachev’s record of four consecutive lightweight title defenses. At the same time, he may not decide to break that record. Topuria had an opportunity to defend the featherweight title for years, but he opted to leave the division. I have a hard time seeing him lose the lightweight title in the octagon. I find it more likely that he retires early or vacates the belt to chase the welterweight title.

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