UFC Baku Preview And Predictions

UFC Baku Preview And Predictions

The UFC is heading to Baku, Azerbaijan, for the first time in the promotion’s history. The crowd in Baku will be treated to a quality card as well. The main event features a fan-friendly clash between two top-ranked light heavyweights. Plus, the co-main has serious implications for the lightweight rankings. The remainder of the card is filled out with fighters from Azerbaijan and the surrounding countries.

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC Baku main card. You can find our yearly prediction records below.

James: 53-47-1

Anthony: 58-42-1

Jerry: 35-34-1

Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Brad- Featherweight Bout

James: The UFC Baku main card opens with a featherweight bout between Muhammad Naimov and Bogdan Grad. Naimov has had a solid 4-1 run since joining the UFC. If he can continue to win, he has put himself in a position to get quality opportunities soon. Meanwhile, Grad is 1-0 since earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. The winner of this fight will keep themselves in a position to be called a potential prospect.  

Naimov is a well-rounded fighter with a lot of respectable skills. As a grappler, he has well-timed takedowns. If he lands those takedowns, he aggressively throws strikes from the top position. In the striking exchanges, he has a functional kicking jab and a solid jab. In the pocket, he is willing to throw big hooks. Despite not being an elite grappler or striker, he is comfortable in both realms and can compete in both phases of a fight. 

Grad is an aggressive fighter who wants to create brawls. This has helped him find success because he is physically strong, hits hard, and has good cardio. This allows him to fight at a high pace and wear down opponents. Plus, he has a good variety of attacks, which can prevent his offensive approach from getting predictable. The issue is that he does not have great defensive skills and can be hit with a lot of big strikes. This is a potentially tragic issue. 

This UFC Baku preview favors Naimov, but Grad has the potential to create an upset. His willingness to take big risks will put him in a position to get a knockout. At the same time, he will put himself in a position to eat a big strike. Additionally, Grad’s aggressiveness will give Naimov opportunities to land takedowns. That gives Naimov more paths to victory. I will take Naimov by second-round knockout. 

Anthony: Naimov via decision

Jerry: Naimov via decision

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta- Lightweight Bout 

James: The UFC Baku main card includes a lightweight bout between Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta. Sadykhov is the first Azerbaijan-born fighter to compete on the card. His card placement is more than his nationality. In his UFC run, he has gone 3-0-1 with several impressive perfomances. Motta is on a two-fight win streak that pushed his UFC record to 3-2. A win over Sadykhov would help him reach a new personal high in the UFC. 

Sadykhov is a southpaw striker with a functional set of skills. In striking exchanges, he throws big shots to the head and body. On top of that, he has a nice body kick that helps him chip away at opponents. I would not classify Sadykhov as an elite grappler, but he is a respectable wrestler and can mix takedowns into his game. 

Motta has a heavy boxing style. His goal is to establish his jab and throw massive hooks. At any chance he gets, he throws tight hooks and looks for a knockout. The issue is that his chin has not always been able to back up his aggressive style. This has led to some knockout losses.

This UFC Baku bout favors Sadkykhov. The main reason is that he is a much more defensively responsible fighter. Meanwhile, I also trust him to be the fighter to land the first damaging shot. I will take Sadykhov by first-round knockout. 

Jerry: Sadykhov via KO/TKO

Anthony: Sadykhov via KO/TKO

UFC Baku Best Bets

Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai- Lightweight Bout

James: At UFC Baku, lightweights Tofiq Musayev and Myktybek Orolbai will share the octagon. Musayev will be making his UFC debut. The promotion likely gave him an opportunity because he is from Azerbaijan. Thankfully, he has a wealth of experience outside of the UFC that suggests he can compete in the promotion. He is 7-1 in Rizin and 1-1 in Bellator MMA. That includes wins over notable fighters like Sidney Outlaw and Patricky Pitbull. Orolbai has impressed in his 2-1 UFC run. In his short tenure, he has shown that he is entertaining and skilled. That is a strong combination considering he is still 27 years old. 

Musayev is an athletic fighter who leverages his speed to have success. In striking exchanges, he uses his quick footwork to skirt around the octagon and dictate exchanges. The best weapons in his arsenal are his jab, straight, and kicks to the body. If he engages in pocket exchanges, he looks to land massive hooks. Although, he also leaves himself open to being hit with massive strikes. 

Orolbai has shown quality boxing and wrestling. His striking is not complex, but it is functional. The main goal in his game is to establish his jab and eventually follow it up with the straight. Similarly, his takedowns are simple but effective. That allows him to get to the top position and work toward a finish. 

This UFC Baku bout previews to be an entertaining fight. In striking exchanges, both fighters should be able to land big shots. In my opinion, the difference will be Orolbai’s durability and physicality. I expect him to survive early strikes from Musayev. Eventually, Orolbai should be able to time Musayev’s entries and initiate grappling exchanges. That should allow him to find a finish. I will take Orolbai by second-round submission.

Jerry: Orolbai via decision

Anthony: Orolbai via decision

No. 5 Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev- Heavyweight Bout 

James: UFC Baku features a heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev. This matchup came out of left field. Blaydes is one of the staples of the heavyweight division. He is 13-5 since joining the promotion in 2016. The only losses on his record have come against the division’s best fighters. Meanwhile, Kuniev is making his UFC debut. The Dana White’s Contender Series signee has an immediate opportunity to prove he is one of the best fighters in the weight class. At the same time, Blaydes could expose that Kuniev is not ready to fight elite competition. 

Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers in the heavyweight division. At his peak, he lands takedowns and obliterates opponents with slicing elbows. Although, he has also shown striking progression. The most notable improvements have come in his offensive boxing. Still, his defense is not elite, and he can be finished.

Kuniev is an interesting fighter to discuss because it is hard to make confident claims about his recent fights. In his Dana White’s Contender Series bout, he impressed and deserved a contract. In his fight that predates that, he beat Renan Ferreira in the PFL. He won that bout, but it was overturned to a no-contest because he failed a PED test. It is difficult to tell exactly how he will look in the future, assuming he is fighting clean. 

What we do know of Kuniev is that he has respectable wrestling, a functional clinch game, and decent striking. His skills suggest that he should be able to compete against ranked opposition. The question is whether he can compete against elite opponents.  

This UFC Baku bout is difficult to preview. In theory, Kuniev should be a strong enough defensive grappler to defend takedowns. That makes this a striking and clinch matchup that either fighter can win. Typically, I tend to pick against Blaydes in those types of fights because of his worrisome durability. The issue is that there is a chance that Kuniev is a fraud who should not be in the octagon with a fighter of Blaydes’ caliber. Ultimately, this prediction because a slight shot in the dark. I will lean toward Kuniev. The main reason is that the UFC’s eagerness to give him this opportunity gives me hope that he has the skill to compete. I will take Kuniev by decision. 

Jerry: Blaydes via KO/TKO

Anthony: Blaydes via KO/TKO

Justin Gaethje May Retire If Not Given Title Fight

No. 11 Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes- Lightweight Bout 

James: The UFC Baku co-main event features a lightweight bout between Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes. Fiziev, an Azerbaijan native, is on a tough run when you focus solely on his wins and losses. Currently, he is riding a three-fight losing streak. His poor run deserves some context. The first loss was a razor-thin decision loss to Justin Gaethje. That was followed up with an ACL tear that cost him his fight with Mateusz Gamrot. In his return, he lost to Gaethje again, but this time he took the fight on short notice. Now, Fiziev has a chance to put that unfortunate run behind him with a victory in this fight. Bahamondes is not an easy fight, however. The 27-year-old prospect has a 6-2 record and is on a three-fight win streak. 

Fiziev is a striker who uses his speed and combination striking to find success. This begins with his ability to mix punches and kicks into combinations. On top of that, he throws a wide variety of strikes and makes good reads. If he is throwing single strikes, he can still tag opponents with jabs and kicks. Those kicks go to all three levels and deal a ton of damage. 

Bahamondes is massive for the lightweight division. At six-foot-three, he has a 75-inch reach. That gives him a unique ability to attack opponents from a distance. In every fight, he commits to landing jabs and teeps. Those are the most important strikes in his arsenal. After he establishes those weapons, he begins to open up with bigger attacks. This includes big kicks and straight punches. If opponents get reckless, he can land counter straights. Despite not being an elite grappler, he can use his length to threaten submissions. 

The UFC Baku co-main event is an interesting fight to preview.. The biggest question in this fight is Fiziev’s speed. In his return from injury, he looked significantly slower. That said, he also took the fight on short notice. If his speed returns to the level it was before injury, he should have success. This is because of his ability to close the distance and throw massive shots in interior exchanges. If he is slower, he could struggle to close the distance, get stuck at range, and eat shots. In the prediction, I expect Fiziev to return to form, look quick, and land big strikes on the interior. I will take Fiziev by decision. 

Jerry: Bahamondes via decision

Anthony: Bahamondes via decision

No. 4 Jamahal Hill vs. No. 7 Khalil Rountree- Light Heavyweight Bout 

James: The UFC Baku main event features a light heavyweight main event between Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree. Both of these fighters have hit road bumps against the division’s elite and are looking to retain their spot at the top of the light heavyweight division. Hill is a former champion who has struggled since returning from a ruptured Achilles tendon. Since his return from injury, he is 0-02 with losses to Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira. Rountree is coming off a loss to Pereira that broke a five-fight win streak. This bout is crucial for both fighters as it will keep their names in the division’s top five. 

Hill is a dangerous striker with a lot of weapons. The most advertised skill in his arsenal is his boxing. This is because he throws in combinations, establishes the jab, switches stance, and has a ton of power. He has an underrated kicking game that supports his boxing. He can throw kicks from both stances and can attack all three levels. Plus, he searches out clinch exchanges where he lands big knees. 

Rountree is a dangerous striker who looks to land big strikes. This is often accomplished with his athleticism. The best version of this comes in the form of straight shots down the middle. On top of that, he will throw massive hooks. If one of those shots lands, he has the potential to finish the fight. It also has to be noted that he is a great finisher when he has opponents hurt. 

The UFC Baku main event previews to be a violent matchup. Both fighters have potent finishing skills and can land a shot to put the other away. Ultimately, I favor Hill. Rountree does not throw tight hooks in the pocket. That is the strike that Hill has had the most trouble with in his recent losses. Meanwhile, Hill is longer and has superior cardio. I expect Hill to avoid Rountree’s looping hooks while poking at him with straight punches and kicks. That should turn into a massive success in the later rounds. I will take Hill by round four knockout.

Jerry: Hill via KO/TKO

Anthony: Hill via decision

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