2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators

2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators

The Battle of Ontario was one of the defining rivalries in the NHL at the beginning of the 21st century. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators faced each other in four Stanley Cup Playoffs series between 2000 and 2004. Three meetings went at least six games, producing many memorable moments and plenty of bad blood.

The teams have had their peaks and valleys in the last two decades. The Senators made the Stanley Cup Final in 2007 and came one win away from returning in 2017. But Saturday will be their first playoff game since then, ending a miserable 2,886-day drought. Toronto was a laughing stock for the first decade-plus of the salary cap era. They have won just one playoff round since their last series against the Senators. However, they’ve been one of the league’s most consistent regular-season teams for the previous nine seasons. Plus, they won their first Atlantic Division title to lock in this matchup.

Toronto is the favored team on paper, but there’s much more that goes into this series than that. Ottawa’s young core will be making its maiden playoff voyage. The Leafs can look back into their history to know how dangerous that type of team can be after Toronto gave the President’s Trophy-winning Washington Capitals all they could handle in Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner‘s rookie seasons. Now, Matthews is a 400-goal scorer. Nylander is second in the Rocket Richard. Marner has 100 points and will push $100 million on his next contract. Life comes at you fast.

There is some playoff experience on Ottawa’s side. Not to mention that Brady Tkachuk knows more about the Stanley Cup Playoffs than anyone who has never played in it, thanks to his father, Keith, and brother Matthew (who could be awaiting the winner of this series in the second round). But a series with so much emotion as this clash of provincial rivals always has some extra kick. Toronto is the favorite in this series. But their recent playoff runs and those early 2000s series when Ottawa usually looked to have the upper hand should remind everyone that this series will be… well, I can’t say it any better.

Anthony Stolarz on the Battle of Ontario returning to the playoffs:

"It’s going to be a bloodbath. It’s going to be a little bit of a war. We’ll be ready"

— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) April 16, 2025

History Lesson

This will be the fourth time these teams have played each other in the first round (2000, 2001, 2004). They also mixed in a second-round showdown in 2003. The cores have changed from Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, and Zdeno Chara against Mats Sundin, Tomas Kaberle, and Nik Antropov to Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Thomas Chabot against Matthews, Nylander, and Marner, plus many more on both sides.

One thing that might surprise neutral fans is that the same team won all four pre-salary-cap-era meetings. Even more surprising to newer hockey fans is that the Maple Leafs continuously emerged victorious. Wait until they find out Toronto won not one but two Game 7s to knock off Ottawa. The last was a particularly humiliating loss as Senators goaltender Patrick Lalime allowed two brutal goals to Joe Nieuwendyk in the first period with Toronto already ahead 1-0, ending the series right there.

However, their recent history goes deeper than those VHS playoff tapes. Matthews scored four goals against the Senators in his NHL debut, but blew the defensive coverage on the overtime-winning goal. Ottawa handed the Leafs a humiliating loss in their 2021 North Division-winning season by erasing a 5-1 deficit. And there was a line brawl not quite on Tie Domi versus Chris Neil level, but fierce enough to make them smile on a certain empty-net goal last season.

The Last Time Here

Which Game 7 did the Maple Leafs lose to Boston the year before this? The one where they rallied back from 3-1 down in the series but blew a third-period lead in Game 7? Sorry, you must be more specific.

There it is.

In fairness to the Maple Leafs, Matthews and Nylander combined to miss five games. Additionally, their preferred starting goalie for Game 7, Joseph Woll, was unavailable due to injury. But the Maple Leafs have lost all benefit of the doubt over the last several years. Last season didn’t help matters, to say the least.

Would you rather have that or deal with 10 of the top 12 and all four goaltenders from your last playoff appearance no longer be in the league? The Senators have dealt with that over the prior eight years, which has featured a logo change, owner death, and countless mockable moments. The Matt Duchene trade threatened to set them back years. But they made it by losing that unexpected top-four pick by recouping an unexpected one in the Erik Karlsson trade. Still, it took lots of failures to reach this milestone. It’s a successful season for the Senators, no matter what happens.

Their last opening-round series also came against Boston, but one key difference between them and the Maple Leafs: they won. Former Leaf Clark MacArthur delivered the overtime dagger in Game 6 at TD Garden. Boston had made the playoffs every season since then until this year.

The Case for Toronto

They’re the better team. While that hasn’t always mattered in the past for the Maple Leafs, being better on paper is inherently a good thing, as long as you don’t let it go to your head. Given their many early exits, that shouldn’t be a problem for the Leafs. Of course, there may be a heightened sense of urgency as Marner and John Tavares are set to be unrestricted free agents in the summer.

As always, all eyes will be on Toronto’s core four. They need a high production level for the Maple Leafs to make that long-awaited deep playoff run. Matthews has always been the ring leader of this group. But there may be extra attention toward him this year after a turbulent regular season. Matthews missed 16 games due to injury, traveling overseas to seek treatment. He will probably enter the Stanley Cup Playoffs less than 100% healthy, which is never great. He is coming in hot, though. Matthews has 16 points in his last 12 games and five goals in his previous 10. Matthews is effective in other areas, though his face-off percentage is more than five percentage points worse than his previous career low.

With his situation, though, the onus shifts a bit further towards the other three stars. Marner took his game to another level during the regular season. The hope is that he continues in the playoffs, which have been a struggle for him. Marner’s stellar performance for Team Canada during the Four Nations Face-Off, which included an overtime goal and a primary assist on Connor McDavid‘s OT tournament winner, proves that Marner can thrive in big games despite his smaller stature.

There’s less concern about Tavares, who has come along nicely this season after a slow start. Same for Nylander, who scored all three Maple Leafs goals in their final two playoff games last year, being able to step up in big spots. That’s also becoming the case with Matthew Knies, who has less playoff baggage than the rest of the team while taking a big step forward this season, nearly doubling his goal and point totals in his sophomore season. He’s now a bona fide top-six winger and has allowed the Leafs to adapt a five-forward power-play setup that has yielded positive results. Since the Four Nations Face-Off, Toronto is seventh in expected goal generation and fifth in goal scoring per 60 minutes on the man advantage.

With that personnel, it’s no surprise that the Maple Leafs lead the league in high-danger passes per 60 minutes. However, the entire forward group is dogged forecheckers, as the Leafs have been one of the league’s top teams in that area in Craig Berube‘s first year behind the bench. Only Aleksander Barkov has more shots on the forecheck than Matthews, with Marner, Knies, and Nick Robertson not far behind.

Bobby McMann helps round things out as the sixth and final Maple Leaf to record a 20-goal season. Only the Washington Capitals had more players hit that mark this season. Toronto’s top nine seems to be coming along as Max Domi has started to find his scoring touch. Additionally, deadline acquisition Scott Laughton has gotten more acclimated to his new surroundings. Max Pacioretty has been out since Feb. 8 and isn’t what he once was. But he could be another option at some point.

The biggest reasons to believe this year will be different lie outside of that group, though. Toronto’s top two right-handed defensemen last year were Ilya Lyubushkin and Timothy Liljegren. This year, it’s Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo. That’s like upgrading from a Civic to a Ferrari. Tanev has been a fantastic stalwart and is also great at exiting his zone, even with control. Carlo is more passive in that area, but that complements Morgan Rielly nicely. Rielly’s offensive impact wasn’t at its usual level, which showed in his worst scoring season since 2016-17.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe contribute to a stout Toronto backend. It does have a weak link at the No. 6 spot in Simon Benoit or Philippe Myers. The biggest difference between 2025 and 2024 specifically is in the net. Though Ilya Samsonov deserves credit for ending the team’s tiring series victory drought in 2023, his play last year was shoddy, ranking 22nd out of 27 goalies in goals saved above expected in the playoffs. Woll, meanwhile, was sixth despite only playing three games and starting two. But he was unable to play more because of a last-second injury in Game 6.

He’ll likely be the No. 2 option this year again. However, that’s only because of Anthony Stolarz‘s stellar first season in The Six. Stolarz led the NHL in save percentage last year with the Florida Panthers (.925 in 27 games). This year, he defended his crown with a .926 mark in 34 games, a tick ahead of Connor Hellebuyck. His playoff experience is limited to a relief appearance in Game 4 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final. But after several years, when a soft goal seemed inevitable at the worst time, Toronto is as well-equipped in the crease as they have been during this era.

The Case for Ottawa

They’re the hungrier team. Getting an opportunity and blowing it is one thing. But many players on this Senators team have hardly sniffed a playoff spot before this season. Ottawa was moderately close to a playoff spot in 2022-23. Yet they regressed last season, finishing below 80 points for the sixth time in seven seasons. They followed up one of the most heartbreaking playoff eliminations in recent memory by finishing in the bottom two three straight seasons. The one year they came dead last, they didn’t have their first-round pick. Ouch.

They made up for that by acquiring what turned out to be the No. 3 pick in the 2020 Draft after the San Jose Sharks fell off a cliff in the second year of Karlsson’s tenure there. Ottawa used that pick on Tim Stutzle, then snagged Jake Sanderson two selections later. However, the Senators’ rebuild began two years prior when they had to choose between sending their 2018 or 2019 first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche to fulfill the Duchene trade. They kept the former, No. 4 overall, who became Tkachuk, their heart and soul, and one of the most exciting players in this year’s tournament. All you have to do is look up highlights of his family and his clips from the Four Nations Face-Off to understand how built Brady is for this moment.

Those three players are the top three on Ottawa’s roster this and last season, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating Model. Drake Batherson took a step forward defensively this season by the same metrics. Offensively, he posted his second straight season above 65 points. And while no Sens mentioned above have any Stanley Cup Playoff experience, their top-six includes a sage veteran in Claude Giroux, who remains productive at 37 years old. David Perron provides a similar experience level and has come into his own offensively lately. Perron has 12 points in his last 23 games after scoring just three points before March in an injury-plagued season.

Deadline acquisition Dylan Cozens could be key in determining Ottawa’s playoff fate. Freed from the shackles of Buffalo, Cozens’ scoring numbers bounced back, going from 31 points in 61 games with this year’s Sabres to 16 in 21 with the Senators, mirroring last year’s breakout 68-point campaign. However, his play-driving metrics were in the gutter. From his Senators debut on March 10 onward, only Tyler Kleven, Matthew Highmore, and Adam Gaudette had a worse expected goals share than Cozens’ 41.79%. The Senators were also outscored at a similar rate with him on the ice.

Sanderson had a bit of a coming-out party at Four Nations, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs should provide another opportunity for him. He took a sizable jump in scoring production this year and graded out as the seventh-best defenseman in the Atlantic Division by Dom’s net rating model. One spot behind him was Chabot, another first-round pick who has been through all the muck in Canada’s capital. Jeff Skinner is getting a lot of attention for getting his first playoff action after playing 1,078 regular-season games. But Chabot’s 512-game career hasn’t included any playoff action, either. That may be the third-most games played of anyone who hasn’t played in the playoffs (Rasmus Ristolainen is well ahead of him at 776). Regardless, that won’t be the case much longer.

The underrated breakout pick for the Senators in this series is Artyom Zub, an underrated find from the Kontinental Hockey League in Russia as an undrafted free agent signed on May 1, 2020. He’s a quality shutdown defender who plays well in tough minutes. Nick Jensen is a lite version of him, and while I still contend the Senators got fleeced in the Jakob Chychrun trade last year, Jensen is at least a solid complement to Chabot. Interestingly, their pair lost the expected goals battle (49.61%) but outscored opponents during the regular season (45-37). Meanwhile, the Sanderson-Zub pair was the opposite (55.28% xGF, outscored 27-30).

Ottawa’s blue line does a nice job defending zone entries and exiting the zone with control. However, teams tend to generate chances off the rush when other teams get past them. The Senators try to strike on the counter-attack offensively, relying on transitioning from their defensive zone to the opponent’s quickly and efficiently. Toronto’s forecheck could make that difficult to pull off. Ottawa has an advantage in exiting their zone with control, which could be key.

Also key will be the performance of Linus Ullmark, the first Senators goalie to lead them to the Stanley Cup Playoffs since Craig Anderson. He was a solid 17th in goals saved above expected this season (13.8). However, his playoff track record isn’t spectacular and includes a mediocre performance in a loss to Toronto last year, the only game of the series that Jeremy Swayman didn’t start. This is his chance to change that narrative and justify the big trade and bigger extension from Ottawa last year.

The Pick

The good news is that whatever happens, this should be an entertaining series, hopefully harkening back to the old days. I’m excited to see several specific Senators players get their first taste of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (paging Tkachuk) and think at least a few of them will make a lot out of the opportunity.

Like previous seasons, this year’s Maple Leafs team is certainly gettable. The Leafs weren’t close to a play-driving juggernaut this year, with their 48.5% xGF the second-worst of any playoff team. Matthews wasn’t firing on all cylinders in last year’s playoffs, and we saw what happened there. However, there’s more of a quiet confidence around this year’s group. They hit some big individual milestones at the end of the regular season (a 100-point season for Marner and 400 career goals for Matthews). Now, their focus can shift singularly toward the main thing.

We often talk about a new coach bump coming when a team first makes a change, but in Toronto’s case, this should be when Berube starts to work his magic. It will be a tightly played series, although I don’t think it will take anything magical for the Leafs to advance. Maple Leafs in five.

Oddly Specific Prediction

I always borrow this idea from one of the best hockey writers, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown). The idea is self-explanatory: make as specific and semi-random a prediction as possible to include in a series preview. The idea is his; the prediction itself is mine.

2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars

No Senator has played a playoff game against the Maple Leafs, but a few have played playoff hockey in Scotiabank Arena thanks to the first two rounds of the 2020 playoffs happening there. Giroux and Laughton were still teammates, leading the Flyers to their first playoff series victory since 2012. Giroux struggled to score, tallying just one goal, which came in Game 5 of the second round (he did record seven assists). Later in that game, with the Flyers a goal away from elimination, Laughton won it with a deflection goal featuring a secondary assist from Giroux.

Only one can advance this time, but that doesn’t mean both can’t be productive. There will be at least one game in this series when the former Flyers teammates, as recently as March 2022, both light the lamp.

Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Moneypuck, All Three Zones, and The Athletic

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