UFC 309 Preview And Predictions

UFC 309 Preview And Predictions

The UFC is taking its annual trip to Madison Square Garden and the promotion is bringing a great card to Big Apple. The UFC 309 main event features a legacy-defining matchup between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. If that isn’t enough, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler will promise violence.

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC 309 main card. You can find our prediction records below.

James: 123-85

Garrett: 121-87

Anthony: 126-82

Jerry: 107-84

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop- 165-Pound Catchweight Bout 

James: The UFC 309 main card kicks off with a 165-pound catchweight bout between lightweights Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop. Both of these fighters are relatively fresh faces to the promotion. Ruffy earned a UFC contract with a knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. In his only UFC bout, he picked up a round-one knockout against Jamie Mullarkey. Llontop also made his way to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series. The difference is that he has struggled in the promotion. He is currently 0-2 in the UFC and badly needs a win. 

Ruffy is a sniper who is a serious threat in distance striking exchanges. This is because of his quick straight punches. Ruffy is great at landing his straights while moving forward, but he is also a great counterstriker. If an opponent pressures him, he can manage range and land while moving backward. Most importantly, this is done with power, allowing him to finish fights. 

Llontop has skills despite the poor start to his UFC career. In striking exchanges, he is aggressive and swings heavy shots. This is present along with a solid jab. Llontop also has solid elbows and knees which presents him with weapons in tight exchanges. 

The UFC 309 main card opener favors Ruffy. In striking exchanges, he should land counters while Llontop gets aggressive. Plus, Ruffy will have the grappling edge. That is more because of Llontop’s deficiencies, but Ruffy should be able to land takedowns if needed. Those are two serious advantages for Ruffy. I will take Ruffy by first-round knockout. 

Garrett: Ruffy via TKO

Anthony: Ruffy via KO/TKO

Jerry: Ruffy via KO/TKO

No. 9 Viviane Araujo vs. No. 11 Karine Silva- Women’s Flyweight Bout 

James: At UFC 309, Viviane Araujo will fight Karine Silva. This is a classic veteran versus prospect matchup. Araujo, 37, is 6-5 in the UFC. In her last four fights, she is 1-3. Silva, 30, is 4-0 in the UFC with three finish victories. That said, Araujo will be a sizeable step up in competition. 

Araujo is a physical fighter. This can be seen in her powerful boxing. This power allows her to trade in the pocket and land the bigger punches. Plus, she has a respectable grappling game and can use those skills to win rounds. The biggest flaw is that she does not have great cardio. 

Silva is a dangerous fighter with physicality as well. The difference is that she leverages her size to help her land submissions. Silva has a deep toolbox of submissions. In the early rounds, she is a danger to submit opponents. In her most recent outing, she showed that she can use her wrestling to win rounds as well. That is crucial because it can help her work around her cardio flaws. 

This UFC 309 is an interesting fight to preview because these fighters have a lot of similarities. That said, I would rather side with the younger fighter. At this point, I trust Silva to get to the top position and win rounds when they are both tired in the late rounds. That will be the difference maker if neither fighter can land an early finish. I will take Silva by decision. 

Garrett: Silva via TKO

Anthony: Silva via decision

Jerry: Silva via decision

8-Sided Freaks Ep. 43: UFC 309 Preview

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig- Middleweight Bout 

James: At UFC 309, Bo Nickal will fight Paul Craig. Nickal is an all-time great collegiate wrestler who has transitioned to MMA. As a shock to no one, he has found immediate success and has become a must-watch prospect. At this point, he is 6-0 with three UFC wins. This bout against Paul Craig will be a massive step up in competition. Currently, Craig is on the decline. At 36, he is 1-2 since dropping down to middleweight. Still, he is 9-8-1 in his UFC career. 

Nickal has done a good job of transitioning from wrestling to MMA. This has largely been because of his dive into BJJ. Despite his wrestling background, Nickal was not shy about adding submissions to his game. This has greatly helped him finish fights. Although, Nickal does have some improvements to make. The most obvious are his cage wrestling and striking. It’s not to say he is terrible in those areas, but his inexperience is notable. 

Craig is essentially a one-trick pony. In every fight, his most likely path to victory is to land a submission from the bottom. This usually comes in the form of a triangle choke, but he can also threaten an arm bar. The remainder of his game comes with serious issues. 

This UFC 309 preview favors Nickal. Craig is not equipped with the abilities needed to expose Nickal’s flaws. On the feet, Nickal will have the power to knock Craig out while also being much more athletic. Plus, Craig does not defend takedowns because he opts to attempt submission from the bottom position. I highly doubt Craig will be able to land a submission in this fight. This allows Nickal to win striking exchanges or get to the top position and survive grappling exchanges.  I will take Nickal by first-round knockout. 

Garrett: Nickal via however he wants

Anthony: Nickal via KO/TKO

Jerry: Nickal via submission

No. 2 Charles Oliveira vs. No. 7 Michael Chandler- Lightweight Rematch

James: The UFC 309 co-main event is a rematch between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. In the pair’s fight matchup, Chandler nearly landed a first-round finish, but Oliveira flipped the script and got the knockout in the second round. In the time since the pair have had very different careers. Oliveira has gone 3-2 while competing in title fights and title eliminators. Chandler has gone 1-2 while attempting to entertain fans and get a fight against Conor McGregor. Regardless, when Oliveira and Chandler get locked in an octagon against one another it creates an amazing fight. 

Oliveira is one of the most prolific finishers in UFC history. This is a result of top-tier submission skills and knockout power. In striking exchanges, Oliveira does not have world-class skills; however, he is fearless and hits hard. That results in being hit cleanly. The saving grace for him has been his ability to recover and find a way to land strikes. In grappling, Oliveira has elite submission from all positions and impressive sweeps to ensure he gets to the top position. The one flaw is that he can chase submission from his back for too long. It should also be noted that Oliveira has an elite clinch game. This helps connect his stand-up skills with his submission. In the clinch, fighters worry about takedowns which allows Oliveira to smoke them with knees or strike on the exit. 

Chandler is an absolute powerhouse in the early stages of a fight. In every fight, he moves forward while winging big shots to the head and body. The goal is for his body shots to set up openings upstairs. Chandler’s explosiveness makes this an applicable game plan for him. This has worked on several occasions, but he has also gotten fatigued with this approach. Similarly, he can land takedowns, but he often gets tired when he aggressively grapples. 

The UFC 309 co-main event preview favors Oliveira. It is hard to be overconfident, however. Chandler’s power mixed with Oliveira’s defensive flaws creates a path to victory for the underdog. Still, Oliveira certainly has the finishing ability to finish Chandler. On top of that, Oliveira could lean on clinch work and grappling to escape the dangerous first rounds. It would not be a surprise to see Oliveira land clinch knees in an attempt to tax Chandler’s gas tank. Regardless, I expect Oliveira to survive Chandler’s big swings and eventually find grappling success. I will take Oliveira by second-round submission.

Garrett: Chandler via decision

Anthony: Oliveira via submission

Jerry: Oliveira via submission

UFC 309 Best Bets

(C) Jon Jones vs. No. 8 Stipe Miocic- UFC Heavyweight Title Bout 

James: The UFC 309 main event is a legacy fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. Jones is the consensus GOAT. That is largely because of his decade-long reign at light heavyweight. In the latter portion of his career, he is working to add to his legacy at heavyweight. That got off to a great start when he defeated Ciryl Gane to win the heavyweight belt. At UFC 309, he has an opportunity to add a monumental win to his resume. Miocic is widely considered the best heavyweight to ever fight in the UFC. The former champion had the title and defended it three times. That set the mark for the most in the division’s history. The problem with this bout is that Jones and Miocic have both been absurdly inactive. That said, if both enter the bout in respectable condition, it will result in a great bout.

Jones is obviously an outstanding fighter. You do not just accidentally become the GOAT. It takes an absurd amount of skill. Jones’ is one of the most well-balanced fighters of all time. This begins with his grappling. In his career, Jones has been the better grappler in every single bout. The standout aspect of his game is his top game. He has world-class ground and pound alongside a serious submission game. It also helps that Jones’ takedowns are good enough to ensure he can get the fight to the ground. On the feet, he has a lot of skill at distance. This begins with his reach. On the outside, he throws an array of kicks and is defensively responsible. In most fights, he is rarely hit cleanly. Lastly, his elbows provide him with dangerous weapons on the interior and help him win clinch exchanges. 

Miocic premier skill is his boxing. At heavyweight, he is one of the cleanest strikers in the division. This is accomplished with his boxing. Miocic is great at trading in the pocket, throwing in combinations, and digging into the body. Plus, he can punish opponents with counters if they get over-aggressive. Historically, he is a solid defensive grappler. The best aspect of his grappling is his initial layer of takedown defense. Plus, he can land his own takedowns. The one issue in his grappling is that he can be held down if he is taken down. 

The UFC 309 main event is a tough fight to preview. It is difficult to predict this fight considering both fighter’s inactivity. Miocic is now 42 years old and last fought in 2021. Meanwhile, Jones has two minutes of fight time at heavyweight. We simply don’t have more recent fight tape on either fighter. 

Based on these fighter’s most recent fights, I side with Jones. The biggest reason for that is his movement. In Miocic’s most recent fights, he did not seem as athletic. That will be an issue against Jones. In striking exchanges, Jones’ movement should allow him to dictate the range. This will allow him to stay on the outside and utilize kicks or crash the distance and get into the clinch. If Jones is dictating the range, Miocic’s boxing opportunities will decrease. That makes it far harder for him to win rounds. Additionally, if Jones lands takedowns, he should have success in the top position. Jones has advantages on the outside, in the clinch, and top position, alongside the ability to determine where the fight takes place. I expect Jones to get to those positions and win rounds. Lastly, Jones’ age advantage makes him the less likely of the pair to suddenly see a massive skill decrease. I will take Jones by decision. 

Garrett: Jones via decision

Anthony: Jones via KO/TKO

Jerry: Jones via decision

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