2023-24 Western Conference First Round Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
For the third time in five years, the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks will meet up in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Clippers won the previous two meetings in six and seven games, respectively, though Luka Doncic will look to get the Mavericks out of the first round for the second time since Dallas won the title in 2010-11.
Who will have the edge? Let’s preview it!
What to know about the Dallas Mavericks:
Starters:
- Kyrie Irving
- Luka Doncic
- Derrick Jones Jr.
- P.J. Washington
- Daniel Gafford
Key Reserves:
It was a very bitter end to the 2022-23 season for the Dallas Mavericks. After trading for Kyrie Irving ahead of the trade deadline, Dallas struggled and ultimately lost nine of its final 12 and 12 of its final 16 games.
The Mavericks re-signed Irving in the offseason, hoping last year would be an aberration.
Well, so far, that’s been the case. The Mavericks’ defense was the biggest reason for its downfall, but that completely flipped on its head the final 40 percent of this season after acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the deadline.
Since the break, they finished No. 7 in defense with the fourth-best opponents turnover rate; since March 18, they were the NBA’s top defense and No. 14 in opponents’ turnover rate, respectively. Oh, and Luka Doncic is arguably playing the best basketball of his life with seamless chemistry alongside Irving.
What to know about the Los Angeles Clippers:
Starters:
Key Reserves:
At this point, I sound like a broken record, but perhaps the biggest development for Los Angeles this year was … availability! Their two-best players (Leonard, George) were available for at least 68 games!
Though that’s not the case right now. Leonard is currently sidelined with a knee injury, but could potentially return this series. Los Angeles endured a six-game losing streak after trading for James Harden in early November–rumors that floated around all offseason–but still finished with 50 wins for the first time since 2016-17. That included a 31-game stretch in the middle of the season when they went 26-5 with the NBA’s most efficient offense.
They eventually cooled off, but still capped off the season with the fourth-best offense and the 16th-best defense. Though when Leonard and Paul George both are on the court together, their defensive rating drops to 110.2 (90th percentile) in non-garbage-time situations, per Cleaning The Glass.
When will we see them together in this series, and will it already be too late? Time will tell…
Questions:
Can Dallas sustain its defense over a seven-game series, whether Leonard is available or not?
I don’t have to spell it out for you: The playoffs are different than the regular season. A ~30 game sample isn’t quite sufficient enough for me to fully believe in the Mavericks’ defense surge—though I have been impressed with plenty of what they have done.
They’ve guarded well; their back-line rotations have been clean; their screen navigation (hello, Derrick Jones Jr.) has been flawless; they will mix in blitzing and dropping with cohesiveness between the other three defenders off-ball.
Can that sustain itself against George, James Harden and, at some point, Leonard? How will Lue counter Kidd’s defense? Can, and how will Kidd adjust?
On some nights, Dallas’ best defense was their offense; they can get away with it for maybe one or two games in a seven-game series, but that’s not a sustainable formula long-term.
How will the Clippers adjust without Leonard?
Leonard is not expected to play Game 1 without a declared timetable for return. Who steps up?
Harden and George could see plenty of Jones Jr. and Exum—Dallas’ two-best POA defenders. We know Harden has had playoff shortcomings as a primary creator and doesn’t always lock in defensively; I expect George’s usage to be the highest, but how does he react when Kidd throws multiple bodies his way.
This could be a big stint for Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook, Terance Mann and Amir Coffey when the Mavs are forced into rotation. If they can knock down their open jumpers or generate paint touches that lead to good shots, I think they can keep pace with Dallas. Though they will also need to generate stops, which is far easier said than done against the two-headed dragon of Doncic and Irving.
Prediction: Mavericks in 7
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