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2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
The road to repeating is fully underway for the Florida Panthers. Mild underdogs (undercats?) in the first round against a white-hot Tampa Bay Lightning team, the Panthers reminded everyone of a simple truth. The champs are the champs until somebody beats them. An emphatic five-game series victory, the second in as many years against their intra-state rivals, Florida is back in front-runner status and now just eight wins away from joining the Lightning in the three-peat Finals club.
Their second-round series is a slightly less recent throwback to when everyone realized the Panthers were firmly for real. After upsetting the record-breaking 2022-23 Boston Bruins in the first round, Florida avoided any worries of a let-down by taking the first three games from the Toronto Maple Leafs before wrapping up the series in Game 5. While Toronto garnered much attention that year for ending a 19-year wait between series victories, Florida’s most recent second-round playoff win came 27 years before that series. Before 2023, it was the only time they’d won a game later than round one.
It’s almost certain that the Panthers will do so for a third straight season this year. Getting the other three victories to win their sixth straight playoff series and ninth of the last 10 will be harder. It’s a task this Panthers team is well-equipped for, as they’ve proven the last two years. The Maple Leafs are still looking for the outcome that finally legitimizes them in the same stratosphere that the Panthers currently occupy. After surviving a Battle of Ontario that they made harder than it needed to be, they’ve earned the right to pursue that.
History Lesson
As mentioned, these teams met in the second round two years ago, their first-ever playoff clash. Each entered on the heels of an emotional round one triumph. Florida rallied from 3-1 down to beat the Bruins team with the regular season wins and points records. A dramatic Game 7 late equalizer and overtime win capped the stunning upset. Toronto won all three road games in their first-round series in overtime. That included the clincher after losing a first-round series each of the prior seven seasons.
It was a tough series to gauge going in, but it quickly became clear which direction it was heading. Though there wasn’t a single game the Panthers dominated (in fact, Toronto won the 5-on-5 expected goals battle in four of the five games), Florida won the first two games on the road, including erasing a 2-0 deficit in Game 2. Maple Leafs starting goalie Ilya Samsonov was injured in Game 3, though backup Joseph Woll performed admirably in relief. It wasn’t enough to prevent a Sam Reinhart overtime winner from keeping the Panthers on a roll. Though Toronto pulled out a Game 4 victory and tied Game 5 late in the third, the Panthers took it to them one last time to reach their second Eastern Conference Final with an OT win.
The Last Time Here
It was the 2023 series for the Maple Leafs. Meanwhile, Florida has reached this stage in four consecutive seasons, advancing each of the prior two seasons. In 2024, they faced a familiar foe in the Boston Bruins, who had just taken down Toronto in Game 7 to advance. The series started with a trio of blowouts. Florida lost Game 1 6-1 at home, only to win the next two contests by a combined margin of 12-3. The final three games were all decided by a single goal. Florida repeated its 2023 performance by winning all three games on the road. That also included a dramatic clinching goal. This time, Gustav Forsling decided not to wait around and broke a 1-1 tie with 1:33 remaining in regulation.
The Case for Toronto
Maybe they’ve figured this playoff thing out after all. Of course, Games 4 and especially 5 against the Ottawa Senators showed that perhaps they haven’t. Toronto couldn’t capitalize on some great overtime chances in the former game. Then, they unraveled after falling behind early in the second period of the latter game. The Maple Leafs may not even get one chance to put away the Panthers, let alone three.
If you’re looking for reasons why this series will be different than the one the teams played two years ago, it’s all about the backend for Toronto. That starts with the goaltending. Anthony Stolarz was a huge reason why the Maple Leafs had such a large cushion against the Senators. Though his play did drop off in the back half of the series, which is particularly concerning given Stolarz’s injury history and lack of consistent starting experience, Stolarz delivered a solid performance on the whole. And if the Maple Leafs decide or need to change things up, Woll has a sparkling .933 save percentage in seven career playoff games. That includes a .921 mark in three games against the Panthers.
Potentially even more important is the supped-up defense core supporting their tender. Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe are the only members of Toronto’s blue line left from two years ago. Back then, they struggled to contain Florida’s physicality. Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo are as well-equipped to handle that challenge as anyone. Carlo has been fairly effective but not dominant against the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In each of their two series against Boston, Carlo ranked fourth among Bruins defenders in expected goals rate per 60 minutes, although the Bruins did outscore Florida 5-3 with him on the ice in 2024 (in 2023, it was 6-6).
It will be an especially unique series for Carlo with his long-time teammate Brad Marchand now on the other side. He was 22nd among defenders in expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5 with 1.94, slightly ahead of Tanev at 2.09. Those two, plus every Toronto defenseman except Oliver Ekman-Larsson, blocked double-digit shots in round one, contributing to the Maple Leafs’ 128 total. Only the Minnesota Wild had more with 130. That can be a risky dynamic, but the Maple Leafs are confident in head coach Craig Berube‘s structure. Though they surrendered 2-1 leads in the third period of Games 2, 3, and 6, Toronto played very well defensively in each period but just had a bounce against them. Ottawa’s game-tying goals in Games 2 and 3 came on their first shot of the period, both in the back half of the frame.
Toronto’s backend also chipped in five goals after a league-worst 21 in the regular season. It feels weird to begin a Maple Leafs playoff preview article without immediately addressing the Core Four. But the series win means Berube can have his way for now. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares did enough to live up to their billing against the Senators.
According to the game score model tracked by Corey Sznajder at All Three Zones, Matthews’ Game 2 performance was one of the best individual efforts of the entire Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Nylander’s Game 4 was even better. He hasn’t tracked the last two games of the series as of the time of writing, so that omits Nylander’s two-goal night in Game 6. But that also conveniently omits the disappearing act the Leafs’ offense pulled in Game 5. At least that wasn’t for a lack of trying.
From play-driving to 5-on-5 goal differential to just putting up points, that group got the job done for the Maple Leafs. It didn’t look the prettiest. The series was more of a rock fight than a track meet. That’s consistent with Toronto’s identity as a strong forechecking team. Matthew Knies is playing his way into the conversation with the team’s top forwards. And not in terms of any snide choking comments. His three goals were tied with Nylander and Tavares for the team lead. He is quickly becoming a dangerous net-front presence, an upgrade on Michael Bunting from two years ago.
Knies scored his first NHL goal (regular season or Stanley Cup Playoffs) in Game 1 against the Panthers. Then, he was injured later in the game, ending his season. Losing him didn’t cost the Maple Leafs the series itself, but it was a tougher blow than many probably realized.
The rest of Toronto’s forward core was a mixed bag. The most consistent positives from their depth up front came from the fourth line of Steven Lorentz, Scott Laughton, and Calle Järnkrok. The trio posted a 52.87% xG share and broke even on the scoreboard, giving quality depth minutes and aiding Toronto’s decent penalty kill. Max Domi and Max Pacioretty scored two of the team’s biggest goals, but also were defensive liabilities at times. However, Pacioretty’s physicality stood out after he returned in Game 3 for his first action since Feb. 8. Bobby McMann was very quiet for most of the series but saved his best game of the series for the last with a team-high 66.1% xGF in Game 6. Finding the right combinations at the right times will be key for Toronto to make its first deep run since 2002.
The Case for Florida
The Maple Leafs may be improving, but the Panthers are better at this. It only took Florida’s core three tries (four if you count the 2020 qualifier round) to figure out what it takes to thrive in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Most of the main characters from that series are still here, meaning Paul Maurice‘s team should be comfortable with the fact that the same success will carry over if they continue doing the right things.
The worry for Florida entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs was that some of its best players wouldn’t be able to be difference-makers. The health of Brad Marchand and especially Matthew Tkachuk was a big question coming into the playoffs. Aaron Ekblad was coming off a mandatory two-month vacation due to a positive PED test that lingered into the first two games of the Tampa Bay series. He’ll be out again to start this series, finishing a two-game suspension. But given Florida went 3-0 in the first round with him out of the lineup, that isn’t a massive concern.
Any worries around Tkachuk immediately went away when he scored two goals in Game 1. His line with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues led Florida with a 70.49% xGF. They only scored one goal at 5-on-5. However, they didn’t allow one, as did the Marchand-Anton Lundell-Eetu Luostarinen trio, which scored four times. Marchand is the biggest addition to the Panthers and one of the biggest ones in the sport. While age is slowly starting to become a factor, he’s still a veteran contributor who knows how to get under any team’s skin, especially Toronto’s.
Lundell’s emergence shouldn’t be overlooked, though. He’s gone from a $3.4 million player during the regular season last year to a $6.6 million player this season, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s game score model. He’s truly living up to his “baby Barkov” nickname with stellar defensive ability, allowing Florida to counter the Maple Leafs’ two elite scoring centers with two lethal shutdown options.
The other is, of course, the grown-up, prime beast Aleksander Barkov, one of two Selke nominees on Florida’s roster along with Reinhart. The latter led the team with six points in the first round. The former was in a five-way tie for second place with five, which includes another underrated Finnish two-way forward in Luostarinen, plus Bennett and his career-high 51 points. It’s a nightmare for any team to go up against, particularly one like Toronto that struggled to fill out its third line through the first round.
One area where Florida’s stars haven’t lived up to the billing is the power-play. The Panthers were ninth in the first round in xG and goal scoring per 60 minutes on the man advantage. That stands out with how well Toronto’s unit played in their four wins (in their two losses, they didn’t score and gave up two shorthanded goals). On the other hand, their penalty kill is legit. Florida easily allowed the fewest xG per 60 in the first round at 3.03. No other team was under five.
Florida’s defense is fairly different from last year, with Brandon Montour out of the picture and Ekman-Larsson on the other side, coming off a two-goal first-round series. If anything, their departures should allow Panthers fans to appreciate just how stout Forsling is even more. He led Florida in 5-on-5 and short-handed ice time. Seth Jones, a big-name deadline acquisition, was his most frequent partner in the first round. However, there’s a strong case for separating them. In 53 minutes against the Lightning, they had a 47% xG rate in 53 minutes together. In 33-37 minutes separate, Forsling was at 58%, and Jones at 79%. Forsling fared much better than Ekblad, so expect them to reunite in Game 2.
The Panthers did get solid performances from their depth defensemen during the regular season. That said, they were stretched a bit thin in the first round. Dmitry Kulikov and Niko Mikkola had a 34.07% xG rate and were outscored 2-1. Nate Schmidt and Uvis Balinskis weren’t much better. There’s one exception with them: Schmidt chipped in three goals in that series. Only Evan Bouchard has more among defenders in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Ekblad’s return should allow for a much better configuration through the roster.
Sergei Bobrovsky is still very reliable. He stopped 7.2 goals above expected in the regular season (27th) and 1.3 in the playoffs (7th). His recent regular-season track record against Toronto isn’t spectacular. He’s 5-3-1 with an. 885 SV% since 2021-22. But if the brick wall version that posted a .943 SV% against them in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs shows up again, Florida will be firmly in the driver’s seat.
The Pick
This is a tough one. It shouldn’t be the steamrolling it was for Florida two years ago. But there’s no guarantee Toronto has done enough to shrink the gap. While they’re much better on the backend and between the pipes, Florida filled Montour’s void by acquiring Jones, and Bobrovsky isn’t showing any sign of decline. Their forward depth is probably better, too.
However, the Maple Leafs appear in a much better headspace than in 2023. Craig Berube will have his team locked in, and home ice is a factor. Florida was 15th in the league in road points percentage, although Toronto was only 11th best at home. Maybe in a long series, Florida wears down after playing 50 playoff games since 2023 (especially if Tkachuk’s injury is more serious than his production suggests). To pick the Maple Leafs to win this series, I’d need to be confident that every member of the Core Four will be able to perform at peak powers.
They’ll be good, I believe, but not quite good enough. Toronto is right there with Florida on the blue line and in net. However, they haven’t adequately replaced the supercharging boost Ryan O’Reilly gave their third line in 2023. Their right side on defense is much better, and if they had both of those things, I’d probably take them. But that’s not the case. Panthers in seven.
Oddly Specific Prediction
I always borrow this idea from one of the best hockey writers, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown). The idea is self-explanatory: make as specific and semi-random a prediction as possible to include in a series preview. The idea is his; the prediction itself is mine.
This will be Marchand’s fifth career playoff series against the Maple Leafs. Unsurprisingly, he’s a perfect 4-0, and his 29 points lead all Toronto opponents since 2013. For all the horror Maple Leafs fans associate with him, Marchand’s been pretty quiet in the four Game 7 victories that have capped off those rounds. He has just two points, both secondary assists, although one was on Patrice Bergeron’s overtime winner in 2013.
The good news for the Maple Leafs is that he won’t be all over the scoresheet in this series. Marchand fails to score before the deciding game. But he makes up for it by tallying not one but two goals, twisting the knife that much more.
Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Moneypuck, All Three Zones, and The Athletic
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