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2025 NFL Draft: Why Teams Should Stray Away From Taking Running Backs Early

Matt Hanifan / NFL, NFL Draft / April 24, 2025

NFL Draft Running Backs — (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)

2025 NFL Draft: Why Teams Should Stray Away From Taking Running Backs Early

The 2025 NFL Draft begins today! Nobody in the industry has put together better and more comprehensive NFL Draft analysis than our very own Trey Daubert over the last several months–from the start of the college football season until now. Hell, he’s probably grinding tape right now on some offensive tackle that won’t be eligible until the 2029 NFL Draft because he’s an animal (in a good way)! Shouts to him, in addition to Garrett and Chickster, with the Draft Busters videos.

I won’t say I know a lot about most of these individuals whose lives will change this weekend. Trey, Garrett and Chickster have probably forgotten more than I could ever know.

We won’t know who goes where until tonight, but indications point to one trend occurring that must be addressed: Drafting running backs in the first round, specifically within the top-15 or 20 picks.

This may be my “old man screaming at a cloud,” rant, but I simply don’t understand the appeal of doing it.

On Thursday night, most believe that Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty–who put together video game numbers last year–will be a top-6 pick. I’m the Mountain West guy at Vendetta, so obviously I love Jeanty; I oftentimes made snide, half-joking remarks over the season that he should be RB1 in this draft, even if I didn’t necessarily believe it.

Though the reality in the NFL in the modern era is that a running back’s shelf life is the shortest in the NFL and their play is not only influenced by the system they play in, but the offensive line they have ahead of them. There are exceptions to the rule. Bijan Robinson, a top-10 pick in 2024, rushed for nearly 1,500 yards with nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage despite playing behind a middling Falcons offensive line in 2024. There are certain running backs with a combination of power, speed, agility, contact balance and coordination you can’t shake.

Assuming Jeanty does get picked in the top-6, he would be the first running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018 to be drafted in that range. Once again, I love Jeanty. He had a historical season, but he also had 594 carries over the last two seasons.

According to Stathead, of the 504 running backs to play at least 20 games with at least 50 carries over the last four combined college seasons, only 13 had more carries than Jeanty did in just two years alone. The only players above him in that span who played less than four years were Kimani Vidal, Blake Corum, Carson Steele, Brad Roberts and Omarion Hampton, who’s also in this 2025 class.

That’s a ton of wear-and-tear. Jeanty’s 374 carries last year alone were more than 90 percent of the 248 running backs that have logged a carry each of the last two seasons (min. 20 games).

We live in the day and age where regularly deploying multiple running backs is commonplace. Gone are the days of bell-cows. It sucks for fantasy purposes, but it’s understandable for a position with as short of a shelf life as that.

But then why would a team invest a premium draft pick with premium dollars if that’s the case?!?! I need someone to explain that to me. The Raiders and Jaguars–who literally invested a late Day 2 (HELLO!!!!! NOT DAY 1, BUT DAY 2) pick in Tank Bigsby in 2023–have far more needs than a running back, for perspective.

John Spytek doesn’t know why NFL teams undervalue running backs

This goes for most of the teams inside the first round, specifically in the top-15/20. There’s a reason why they’re drafting where they are in the first place. There are players with greater positional value who will be available for these teams in these spots.

Each team and situation is different, but as I pointed out earlier this week: All but eight of the NFL’s top-40 rushers over the last three seasons were Day 2-3 picks. 20 of those players were selected in Round 3 or later; 10, including four of the top-15 total, were Round 4 or later. You can find productive running backs late in drafts while building the rest of the fortress.

It would be one thing if this RB class were top-heavy. It’s not. Take your pick with TreVeyon Henderson, Jordan James, Dylan Sampson, Kyle Monangai, Quinshon Judkins, Cam Skattebo and Damien Martinez, among others. You could land some of these guys in Rounds 3-5 instead of reaching for them at the top of the draft and chasing other not-as-deep premium positions later. Again, each team is different, but taking a RB early logically doesn’t make sense to me.

The prime years for running backs are most likely in the age 25-27 range. Obviously, there are exceptions. Derrick Henry (A DAY 2 PICK HELLO!!!) could turn 50 and rush for 800 yards. But we’ve seen this movie where running backs peak during their rookie contracts and then the wear-and-tear catch up.

It’s very difficult to invest early picks into the position in this day and age, especially if you’re pressured to extend them at decent money for multiple years because of where you drafted them. You’re (likely) shooting yourself in the foot from a team-building perspective if that’s the case.

That’s not to say Jeanty–or any of these running backs at the top–won’t be good. I think they will all be quality backs (if they’re in the right situation), but I don’t see the cost-efficient advantages of taking that risk.