2024 WNBA Playoff Preview: Phoenix Mercury v. Minnesota Lynx

2024 WNBA Playoff Preview: Phoenix Mercury v. Minnesota Lynx

The WNBA Playoffs tipped off Sunday, beginning with the New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream. You can check out that preview here. The third best-of-three first-round series of the day will be between the No. 7 Phoenix Mercury and the No. 2 Minnesota Lynx. Let’s dive into our series preview!

Game	Date	Matchup	Time (EST)	TV
Game 1	Sept. 22	Mercury @ Lynx	5 p.m.	ESPN
Game 2	Sept. 25	Mercury @ Lynx	6:30 p.m.	ESPN
Game 3*	Sept. 27	Lynx @ Mercury	TBD	ESPN2

What we know about the Lynx:

Starters:

• Courtney Williams
• Kayla McBride
• Bridget Carleton
• Napheesa Collier
• Alanna Smith

Key Reserves:

• Natisha Hiedeman
• Dorka Juhasz
• Myisha Hines-Allen
• Cecilia Zandalasini

The Lynx began the season scorching hot, winning 13 of their first 16 games. They also concluded the season playing with their hair on fire, winning 14 of their final 15 games ahead of their final regular season game against the Los Angeles Sparks.

A huge reason for that was due to Collier, ascending into the MVP conversation this season right behind Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson, who took home the award unanimously. The 6-foot-1 forward averaged 20.4 points and 9.7 rebounds on 49.2 percent shooting and 56.5 percent true shooting. There’s nothing she can’t do exceptionally well on a basketball court, speaking to her growth as a player after winning the league’s Rookie of the Year award in 2019.

McBride and Carleton emerged as two of the league’s top 3-point shooter, including the former leading the WNBA in made 3-pointers with 105. Both players account for over half of the Lynx’s made 3-point attempts, which is the biggest reason why they lead the league in 3-point percentage by 1.4 percentage points.

What we know about the Mercury:

Starters:

• Natasha Cloud
• Sophie Cunningham
• Dianna Taurasi
• Kahleah Copper
• Brittney Griner

Key Reserves:

• Natasha Mack
• Mikiah Herbert Harrigan

The Mercury, on the other hand, did not end the season well, losing 14 of their final 19 games. They were able to get a postseason spot, but it didn’t always look pretty, especially in the frontcourt.

Phoenix was the 8th-best offense with the fourth-worst defense this season. I am going to discuss this later, but their biggest fatal flaw came on the glass, where they posted the worst defensive rebounding percentage and rebounding percentage, contributing to their struggles on that end of the hardwood.

Copper was the team’s big preseason acquisition, coming over from Chicago in exchange for the No. 3 pick. It hasn’t quite jelled as anticipated, though she averaged 21.1 points and 4.5 rebounds en route to her fourth straight All-Star bid this season. Brittney Griner’s been a solid contributor two years removed from her Russian imprisonment while Natasha Cloud continued to improve as an all-around playmaker.

Given the talent that’s on the roster, I still felt that Phoenix left meat on the bone during the regular season. Perhaps they surprise folks against a red-hot Lynx squad, but it’s not expected.

2024 WNBA Playoff Preview: New York Liberty v. Atlanta Dream

Questions?:

Can Phoenix win the battle on the glass?

Rebounding wins championships. It’s the most underrated key to winning to basketball that few people talk about. In their only win against Minnesota this season, Phoenix won the battle on the glass by three, while finishing a minus-15 across their three losses. Phoenix has the size with Griner to match Collier, though they are going to need collective efforts from Mack, Copper and Cunningham (among others) if they want to close the talent gap that exists.

Can the Lynx stay hot from 3-point range?

Three-game series add a little bit more parity and unpredictability game-by-game, as opposed to a five- or seven-game series. A couple bad games can end your season in a flash. The Lynx did not have many poor games from deep, knocking down at least 35 percent of their 3-pointers in 26 of their 40 games; in nearly half (18) of their games, they canned at least 10 triples, third-most in the WNBA. The Mercury had 12 such games, where Taurasi, Copper and Cunningham can get hot in an instant.

Series prediction:

Lynx in 2.

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