2024 WNBA Playoff Preview: Connecticut Sun v. Minnesota Lynx

Matt Hanifan / WNBA / September 29, 2024

Sun Lynx — (Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images)

2024 WNBA Playoff Preview: Connecticut Sun v. Minnesota Lynx

The WNBA will tip off their semifinal round Sunday, and this series between the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx feature the league’s top two teams throughout the regular season. It may not get as many eyeballs as the Liberty and Aces, who met in the WNBA Finals last year, but this should still be a captivating, hard-fought series. Without further ado, let’s preview this highly-anticipated playoff bout!

Game	Date	Matchup	Time (EST)	TV
Game 1	Sept. 29	Sun @ Lynx	8:30 p.m.	ESPN
Game 2	Oct. 1	Sun @ Lynx	TBD	TBD
Game 3*	Oct. 4	Lynx @ Sun	7:30 p.m.	ESPN2
Game 4*	Oct. 6	Lynx @ Sun	TBD	TBD
Game 5*	Oct. 8	Sun @ Lynx	TBD	ESPN2

What we know about the Sun:

Dijonai Carrington
Marina Mabrey

Key Reserves:

For the sixth straight season, the Sun finished inside the top-2 leaguewide, finishing 28-12. They have a four-headed monster in Alyssa Thomas, Dijonai Carrington, DeWanna Bonner and Marina Mabrey, who they acquired at the deadline from the lowly Chicago Sky. There’s little-to-nothing that Thomas, a five-time All-Star, can’t do well on a basketball court, averaging 10.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 7.9 assists; Carrington won the league’s most improved player award this year and sports exceptional point-of-attack defense; Bonner’s still impactful on the interior; Mabrey injected lethal shooting off the bench, knocking down 42.4 percent of her 6.2 3-pointers per game.

The Sun dominated their first game against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in Game 1 of the first round followed by a nail-biting six-point win. Mabrey led the team in scoring over the two games, canning eight of her 22 triples. Thomas tallied a remarkable 26 assists as well–13 apiece in both games.

What we know about the Lynx:

Starters:

Courtney Williams

Alanna Smith

Key Reserves:

Myisha Hines-Allen

No team was hotter than the Lynx to end the season, winning 14 of their final 16 games followed by sweeping their two-game set against Phoenix. They’ve had the WNBA’s fourth-best offense and fourth-best defense with the second-highest effective field goal percentage and true-shooting percentage over that span.

It’s difficult to say enough about Napheesa Collier, who finished second in MVP voting behind Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson. Collier completely dominated both games against Phoenix, posting 38 and 42 points, respectively, on 64.1 percent shooting over those games. McBridge and Carleton continued to knock down treys at a respectful efficiency while getting rock-solid two-way contributions from Williams and Smith.

Biggest questions:

Can Collier continue playing at an MVP level?

Arguably no player has played better throughout the playoffs so far than Collier, as I highlighted above. She’s had success against the Sun frontline this season, too, averaging 21.7 points and 6.0 rebounds on 58.3 percent shooting in three games. The Sun may not be able to completely stop her; it’s nearly impossible to completely shut off the water of great players, no matter the sport. But if they can slow her down–in addition to McBride and Carleton–they have a chance at winning this series.

Can Connecticut slow down Minnesota from 3-point range?

Led by McBride and Carleton, the Lynx are the WNBA’s most efficient 3-point shooting team, knocking down 3s at a 38.0 percent clip. They were also third in 3-point makes per 100 possessions and made 13 in their July 4 meeting against Minnesota, despite losing by five. Beyond the arc is where the Lynx create margins, and since the start of the 2021 postseason, the winner in the 3-point battle is 35-20 (.636) in the postseason. Better yet, the Lynx are 26-6 this season when they make more 3s than their opponent (5-4 when they don’t). The Sun has one of the league’s best defenses, so if they can mitigate that damage, they can knockoff the league’s No. 1 seed.

Will the Sun be able to maintain their balanced attack?

Connecticut has six players who average double-figures, sporting a more equal-opportunity attack. Obviously, there’s multiple threats who can score on any given possession, but will they be able to maintain that balance against an exceptional Lynx defense?