2024 AFC Divisional Round Preview: No. 4 Houston Texans at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs

2024 AFC Divisional Round Preview: No. 4 Houston Texans at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL Playoffs are in full effect, as the Divisional round begins today, starting with an AFC Divisional Round matchup between the No. 4 Houston Texans traveling to Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Houston took care of business in the Wild Card round against the Los Angeles Chargers, and face another AFC West team in this one. The Kansas City Chiefs, entering the playoffs 15-2, look to win their third Super Bowl in a row, and would become the first team in league history to do so. Let’s dive into this AFC Divisional Round preview!

• When: Saturday, Jan. 18
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
• Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
• TV: ESPN
• Spread: Chiefs -8.5
• Over/Under: 41.5

Why The Texans Will Win:

Pressure Creates Turnovers (And Diamonds)

As we dive into this AFC Divisional Round Preview, we first take a look at how the Houston Texans can pull off the major upset and advance to the AFC Championship game. This Texans defense has to create pressure and force this Chiefs team to commit turnovers. The Chiefs have had at least one turnover in eight of their last nine games, including two or more in three of those games. The pairing of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 23.0 sacks this season, and this team is seventh in turnover differential at +10. If Houston can force Mahomes to commit at least one turnover, they might have a shot.

Dominate Time Of Possession

While it would be easy to count out this Kansas City Chiefs offense this season, as they finished the regular season 17th in total offense, this is still Patrick Mahomes in the postseason. If the Houston Texans want to come out of this one with a win, dominating time of possession will be huge. Keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. The Texans finished with the fifth-ranked total defense in the NFL, so keeping sustained drives going to limit the opportunities Mahomes and company have will be vital.

Why The Chiefs Will Win:

A Stifiling Defense Of Their Own

I’d argue that it isn’t the offense of the Kansas City Chiefs that has done the bulk of the heavy lifting during this dynasty they are in, but their defense. Andy Reid has quietly built a very solid unit on defense, finishing ninth in total defense in 2024, second in 2023, and 12th in 2022. Chris Jones is a game-wrecker, and the interior of the offensive line for the Texans is prone to collapse. I wouldn’t expect a ton of fireworks in this one, as I believe both defenses are up to the task.

The Refer- I Mean Black Mag- I Mean Patrick Mahomes

All jokes aside, I know I mentioned earlier in this AFC Divisional Round preview that this Kansas City Chiefs offense has been lackluster this season, but can you seriously count out Mahomes? In his postseason career, he’s thrown for 5,135 yards, 41/8 TD/INT ratio on 67.9% completion percentage. This dude always turns it up to 11 when the lights are brightest. Home-field advantage in the playoffs, the best head coach in the league, and a stout defense are typically a recipe for success. If you told me we’d get regular-season Mahomes? This would be a different story. Playoff Mahomes, though?

Prediction:

Playoff Mahomes is a different breed, man. I’m not sure what else to tell you. I know the regular season wasn’t always pretty on offense, but this team is simply different in the postseason. Houston’s defense is HOT right now, but if it gets to that point, can the Texans hang on offense? I would take the under on this one, as these defenses are legit and it’s going to be a cold one.

Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Houston Texans 13

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