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It’s that time of year in the NBA calendar: The play-in tournament. Now, we get to the less interesting portion of the slate with the 9-10 games. We open Wednesday with the No. 10 Miami Heat traveling to United Center to face the No. 9 Chicago Bulls.
Miami is looking to become the first team in NBA History to win two straight play-in games on the road. Only two No. 10 seeds have won a single game in the play-in but no team has won twice. The Heat is two years from a historically great playoff run. Can Erik Spoelstra whip up some dark magic once again?! Let’s dive into it!
Starters:
Key Reserves:
Coming off a 46-win season where the Heat set the franchise record in starting lineups (35) due to myriad injuries, the Heat were looking to avoid a third-straight play-in. Well, obviously, that didn’t happen.
It was a long season for Miami, who dealt with ongoing Jimmy Butler drama–which began in the offseason at Pat Riley didn’t reward the six-time All-Star with an extension–for months before it sent him to Golden State in a five-team blockbuster ahead of February’s trade deadline.
They got Andrew Wiggins–who missed nearly half of his games with the Heat due to injury–Davion Mitchell, Kyle Anderson plus a top-10 protected pick in return from Golden State. But they still endured the longest losing skid of Erik Spoelstra’s career (10 games), blew 21 fourth-quarter leads and 22 double-digit leads (both league-highs) while finishing eight games below .500 for the first time since 2014-15.
While first-time All-Star Tyler Herro blossomed with a modified shot diet, the Heat’s sputtered to being a bottom-third unit for the third-straight year. Bam Adebayo was spectacular for the second half of the season and rookie big Kel’el Ware showed legitimate flashes throughout the season.
Starters:
Key Reserves:
The Bulls have been perpetually mediocre for the last four seasons. That didn’t quite change this year after the team parted ways with DeMar DeRozan last offseason, but the product was objectively more enjoyable.
Hand up: I was wrong about Josh Giddey’s addition and how he would impact this unit. I’ll probably do another post about everything I was wrong about–this included. I crushed the deal from Chicago’s angle at the time–I still wish they would’ve extracted at least one pick from Oklahoma City–but he was objectively awesome for Chicago and got better as the year went on. In 19 games post-All-Star break, he averaged 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds (!!), 9.3 assists (!!) and 1.5 steals on 50.0/45.7/80.9 shooting splits.
While Coby White more than replicated his second half from last year, Giddey’s been the story of the Bulls’ season. In Chicago’s up-tempo offense, his poise, processing and aggressiveness looks night-and-day than it did a year ago. Overall, the Bulls’ offense still wasn’t very good, but I think they’re heading in the right direction.
1. Can Miami find a way to slow it down?
The Bulls play at the second-highest tempo in the NBA. The Heat play at the fourth-slowest. In their three meetings this season (all Bulls wins), Chicago routinely outpaced the Heat, consistently creating advantages in (semi-)transition that led to easy points, be it off misses or makes.
Postseason basketball is played at a slower pace. But this is where the Heat miss Butler, the master of slowing games down by burling through defenders and getting to the free-throw line. Miami doesn’t quite have that element to its offense, so it will be on Herro, Adebayo and Wiggins’ shoulders to make that happen throughout.
2. Can Chicago continue to be resilient if the game gets tight?
All of this is presuming the game actually does get close. We don’t know how the game script will play out for the first 43 minutes of the game. However, if it gets tight, Chicago holds the clear advantage. Miami was a D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R in clutch situations (five points or less in final five min.) this year, posting the NBA’s worst offense with third-worst NET. Chicago had a top-5 NET Rating in the clutch. Will history repeat itself?
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