2023 Western Conference First-Round Preview: Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers

2023 Western Conference First-Round Preview: Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers

It’s a 2021 Western Conference Finals rematch between familiar foes, as the 5-seed Los Angeles Clippers meet the 4-seed Phoenix Suns in the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Phoenix took that 2021 WCF matchup in six games.

The first matchup between these two Pacific division rivals will take place on Sunday, March 16 in Phoenix. The Suns and Clippers split the season series this year at two games a piece. LA outlasted Phoenix 117-106 on Feb. 16. In the final game of the season, LA’s second win was one where Phoenix didn’t play their starters. The Suns won both of their games against the Clippers in blowout fashion.

In the final game of the regular season, the Clippers defeated the Suns to avoid the Play-In Tournament and lock themselves in as the 5-seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers have been fighting tooth and nail to avoid the Play-In Tournament, which they did successfully. However, in the process, they lost superstar Paul George to a knee injury on March 21. George still has no timetable for a potential return. Many speculate that he will miss this entire series.

The Suns had less to play for on Easter Sunday because they were already locked into the four seed thanks to a seven-game winning streak. Phoenix has caught fire since Kevin Durant‘s return on March 29 from injury. In fact, in games that Durant has played in for Phoenix, the Suns are 8-0 on the year. Every game that they’ve needed to win down the stretch to get the best possible seed, they seemingly have. Phoenix has been resting their starters since April 7 match against the Lakers.

The Clippers are facing an uphill battle here. They did finish 6-3 without George, but facing a strong Suns team without him is a daunting task.

Starting Lineups

Without George, the Clippers will be running out a starting five consisting of Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Nicolas Batum and Ivica Zubac. This bunch has been effective for Los Angeles, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per 100 possessions, according to VSIN. Expect Bones Hyland, Terrance Mann, Robert Covington, Norman Powell and Mason Plumlee to all get significant minutes in this series for the Clips.

Phoenix runs out their healthy starting five for this series. Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton. Forward T.J. Warren has missed three straight games due to an illness but could be ready for Sunday’s Game 1. Landry Shamet, Damion Lee and Bismack Biyombo will get minutes during this series.

Two former NBA Finals MVPs in Leonard and Durant haven’t played against each other in a game since 2021 when Durant was with Brooklyn. Besides George and maybe Warren, expect the Suns and Clippers to have their full rotations in action.

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Odds

Vegas’ odds seemingly don’t have a lot of faith in a depleted Clippers team. According to DraftKings, the Suns are -600 favorites to win the series and advance to the second round. For anyone whose not well-versed in betting, these are massive odds. This translates to an “implied probability” of roughly 85%. Phoenix will enter the series as the biggest favorites in any series (excluding Play-In results) in these first-round matchups.

I don’t know if I agree with these long odds. Vegas is banking on the fact that Phoenix has been unstoppable when healthy, and that LA is without its best scorer. These two factors alone are what’s driving the price of these bets through the roof.

Schedule

Here is the schedule for the Western Conference first-round matchup between LA and Phoenix.

GAME	DATE	LOCATION	TIME (ET)	TV
Game 1	Sunday, April 16	Footprint Center (Phoenix)	8:00 pm	TNT
Game 2	Tuesday, April 18	Footprint Center (Phoenix)	10:00 pm	TNT
Game 3	Thursday, April 20	Crypto.com Arena (LA)	10:30 pm	NBATV
Game 4	Saturday, April 22	Crypto.com Arena (LA)	3:30 pm	TNT
Game 5*	Tuesday, April 25	Footprint Center (Phoenix)	TBD	TBD
Game 6*	Thursday, April 27	Crypto.com Arena (LA)	TBD	TBD
Game 7*	Saturday, April 28	Footprint Center (Phoenix)	TBD	TBD

Prediction

Phoenix advances in five games.

It was a nice season for the Clippers. They played well down the stretch and did a good job to stave off the Play-In Tournament. Their roster is well-constructed and has a lot of depth and top-end talent.

At the end of the day, however, it’s going to be extremely difficult to defeat this Phoenix team while they’re fully healthy. This would be one of the most intriguing series of the entire first round if Paul George was on the court. Unfortunately, he most likely won’t be. Phoenix has been nearly unstoppable while Kevin Durant is on the court. All the signs in the world are pointing to Phoenix taking this one, but I don’t believe it will be as lopsided as some think.

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