2023 MLB Draft Profile: Rhett Lowder
Wake Forest has started to gain a reputation for being a pitching clinic at the college level. With Rhett Lowder very likely to go in the first, he will be the third Wake Forest pitcher in the last four drafts to go in the first round, while the previous two (Jared Shuster and Ryan Cusick) haven’t quite panned out yet. Nevertheless, it’s clear that Wake Forest knows how to develop pitchers, Rhett Lowder is no expectation.
But it wasn’t always sunshine and rainbows for Lowder at Wake Forest. His freshman season saw him post an ERA of 6.12, almost losing his spot in the rotation as a result. Since then though, Lowder found his groove halving his ERA down to 3.08, earning ACC Pitcher of the Year in the process.
While previously covered pitchers like Skenes or Dollander rely heavily on their fastball, Lowder doesn’t boast an elite fastball that allows him to easily set up his offspeed. Instead, Lowder has largely had to rely on control and movement to find success.
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60 | Overall: 55
Lowder hasn’t needed a plus-plus fastball, especially with how nasty his changeup is. It’s easily his best pitch with a significant fade that makes it effective against both righties and lefties.
But this doesn’t mean his fastball is just some terrible pitch he doesn’t use. It still sits at 92-95 with downward movement that makes it look more like a sinker. Making it great for inducing soft contact but not for racking up strikeouts.
His slider is his worst pitch but could still be turned into a big-league pitch. It features more drop than the sweeping movement you want from a slider; it could turn into a plus pitch, but for now, it is a weakness in his pitch selection.
Again though, Rhett Lowder’s value comes from his control and command of the strike zone. The fastball may only sit at 93, but it’s made to look a lot faster when he pairs it with his changeup and locates it right on the black.
We’ve seen countless times pitchers succeed without an overpowering fastball. It’s an awesome tool to have sure, but if you can mix speed and locations then you don’t even need it. Think of guys like … I don’t know, Greg Maddux or even Clayton Kershaw?
Now I’m not saying Lowder will turn out to be as good as those two. Just there to serve as a reminder that you can still succeed without having to throw a Nolan Ryan-esk fastball.
His motion is quick and simple that he’s easily able to repeat, allowing him to easily get into a rhythm and more importantly pound the strike zone. Something that should translate well into the next levels.
Rhett Lowder will very likely end up as a solid mid-rotation guy for any MLB team. I don’t think he quite has the stuff to be an ace, but should still serve as a great second or third arm.
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