2023 ALDS Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

2023 ALDS Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will take on the Minnesota Twins, who won their first series in over 20 years this week, in one of two American League Divisional series matchups. The best-of-five series will begin Sunday at 4:45 p.m. EST, so let’s preview it!

ALDS Schedule:

Date	Matchup	Probable Starters	Time	TV
Oct. 7	Twins @ Astros	Bailey Ober vs. Justin Verlander	4:45 p.m. EST	FS1
Oct. 8	Twins @ Astros	Pablo Lopez vs. Framber Valdez	8:03 p.m. EST	FS1
Oct. 10	Astros @ Twins	TBD vs. Sonny Gray	4:07 p.m. EST	FOX
Oct. 11	Astros @ Twins	TBD vs TBD	2:07 p.m. EST	FS1
Oct. 13	Twins @ Astros	TBD vs. TBD	4:07 p.m. EST	FS1

Minnesota Twins:

Overview:

The streak has been snapped! After clinching yet another AL Central division title, the Twins snapped the infamous 18-game postseason losing streak and won their first playoff series since 2002 all in a span of two days. Minnesota swept the Toronto Blue Jays and outscored them 5-1 in the series. The Twins have won 20 of their last 30, including 10 of their last 13 entering the ALDS.

Reasons for optimism?

The Twins have a dominant pitching staff, who led MLB in strikeout percentage (25.9K%), strikeout-to-walk rate (18.5%) in the regular season; they ranked in the top-3 in FIP (3.94), expected FIP (3.89) and were in the top-10 in FIP (92) and FIP- (92).

They have a rock-solid rotation for a five-game series in Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They also have plenty of length throughout their bullpen, featuring Griffin Jaz, Emilio Pagan and Jhoan Duran. You could make the argument that Minnesota possesses the best overall pitching staff in this field. That’s a huge advantage come October, even though there is that drop-off after Gray in the rotation.

It also appears that rookie Royce Lewis, who’s recovering from a hamstring injury, is built for the postseason after crushing two home runs in his first two career postseason appearances. Even though it’s a microscopic sample, that’s a great sign! Plus, they have a veteran leader in Carlos Correa–who will be going up against his former team (revenge series incoming?)–who is a vacuum at shortstop with Edouard Julien manning the other infield spot.

As much as most don’t want to hear it, the team that hits the most home runs typically advances furthest in the playoffs. Minnesota had the third-most homers in 2023 (233). Will they be able to out-homer Houston? Time will tell.

Any worries?

The rest of the Twins lineup. Most of their lineup has been hot since the start of September. But outside of Julien and Lewis, the Twins have just three above-average bats in their lineup in Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Ryan Jeffers. Even though Willi Castro, Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo have had their moments, their firepower hasn’t been super consistent this season.

While their pitching staff posted the best strikeout percentage, their lineup had the worst … striking out 26.6 percent of the time. There’s a steady dose of swing-and-miss throughout this lineup, which could be problematic at any crucial point.

Projected Game 1 lineup:

• Edouard Julien, 2B
• Jorge Polanco, 3B
• Royce Lewis, DH
• Max Kepler, RF
• Alex Kirilloff, 1B
• Carlos Correa, SS
• Matt Wallner, LF
• Ryan Jeffers, C
• Michael A. Taylor, CF

Houston Astros:

Overview:

The Houston Astros, very narrowly, won their third straight AL West Title and their sixth in seven years. They are the reigning World Series champs who bring back virtually the same roster that helped them win 106 games a year ago. They did hit a wall in early September, but closed the regular season by winning five of their last six games–including four straight–to finish 90-72.

Reasons for optimism?

Experience. Jose Altuve. Alex Bregman. Justin Verlander. Kyle Tucker. Framber Valdez. I could go on. All of them have “been there, done that.” This Astros squad is loaded with postseason experience and, most importantly, championship experience. This core knows what it takes to win in October. That matters.

The Astros were baseball’s fifth-best offense during the regular season, posting a 112 wRC+–trailing only the Braves, Rays, Dodgers and Rangers. They clobbered the seventh-most home runs (222), posted the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%) and sported the eighth-highest isolated power (.178). Houston’s swing decisions are on-point and they can spray the ball around the diamond.

Their offense is led by Yordan Alvarez–who led their team in home runs (31), despite only playing 114 games–in addition to Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker, one of the most dynamic corner outfielders in MLB.

Any worries?

The Astros don’t have many deficiencies, but their pitching staff isn’t as well-rounded as their counterparts. Houston ranked outside the top half in both FIP and xFIP, even though they have a bevy of arms–Verlander, Valdez, Cristian Javier and J.P. France–whom they can rely upon.

It’s not as dominant of a pitching staff as it’s been in past years, but still good enough to keep Houston in ballgames as long as their offense steps up–especially with a fully rested bullpen that got plenty of mileage this season.

Projected Game 1 lineup:

• Jose Altuve, 2B
• Alex Bregman, 3B
• Yordan Alvarez, DH
• Kyle Tucker, RF
• Jose Abreu, 1B
• Chas McCormick, LF
• Jeremy Pena, SS
• Mauricio Dubon, CF
• Martin Maldonado, C

Prediction:

Both teams are full of gamers, but I don’t see Houston being as lackluster as Toronto was in the Wild Card series. You could make the case that Minnesota might be more complete, but Houston is more experienced. I’ll roll with the latter. Houston in 4.

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