2023-24 Western Conference Finals Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

2023-24 Western Conference Finals Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

After two grueling Western Conference semifinal matchups, the West Finals is officially set between the No. 5 Dallas Mavericks and No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves, making their first conference finals appearance in 20 years. The series will tip off Wednesday, May 22, at 8:30 p.m. EST inside Target Center with a chance to face the Boston Celtics or Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals!

Who will come out on top: Luka Doncic and Dallas, or Anthony Edwards and Minnesota? Let’s hop into it!

What we know about the Mavericks:

Starters:

• Kyrie Irving
• Luka Doncic
• Derrick Jones Jr.
• P.J. Washington
• Daniel Gafford

Key Reserves:

• Dereck Lively II
• Josh Green
• Jaden Hardy
• Tim Hardaway Jr.

The Mavericks handled business in six games across both of their series against the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder, respectively.

Dallas sported the NBA’s top defense over the final month of the regular season. So far through these playoffs, they’ve had the seventh-best offense–despite turning the ball over at the fifth-highest clip, including the highest amongst remaining teams–paired with the sixth-best defense.

To quickly go over what happened in the previous series, it lost its first game on the road to the Thunder to begin Game 1. However, the Mavs ultimately won four of their next five, including a narrow one-point win at home to avoid a Game 7. It was an uneven series for Kyrie Irving offensively, mostly looking to play make while seeing multiple bodies instead of always hunting his own shot.

Though it was Luka Doncic and P.J. Washington who primarily stepped up for Dallas. Doncic, who’s far from being 100 percent healthy, averaged 24.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 8.7 assists, while Washington averaged 17.7 points on 46.9 percent shooting from 3-point range. The Mavericks also got good production from Jones, Gafford and Lively–who will all need to step up if the Mavericks want to make the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011.

What we know about the Timberwolves:

Starters:

• Mike Conley
• Anthony Edwards
• Jaden McDaniels
• Karl-Anthony Towns
• Rudy Gobert

Key Reserves:

• Naz Reid
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker
• Kyle Anderson

Whew, was the West semis against the defending champs a wild ride!

Minnesota blitzed Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in their own building, going up 2-0 in the series, including a 26-point win without Gobert (birth of son) in Game 2. Denver countered with three straight–including a 27-point win in Game 3 and a 15-point win in Game 5 capped by a dominant 40-point, 13-rebound performance from Jokic–to put Minnesota on their heels.

They didn’t fold against Denver, however. They responded with a 45-point masterclass in Game 6, followed by coming back down 20 points in the second half to send the defending champions home, closing the game on a 60-32 run to win by eight.

It was a historically great comeback for Minnesota, who have not made the Western Conference Finals since 2003-04. Anthony Edwards is one of the most captivating stars the league has to offer, but the amount of size and balance Minnesota has with Gobert, Towns–who, for a subpar defender, matched up with Jokic as well as anyone has over the last two seasons–Jaden McDaniels (who Edwards called the MVP), consummate professional Mike Conley and Naz Reid.

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Biggest question(s)?:

How will Dallas’ frontcourt fare against Minnesota’s?

It’s hard to take anything away from the four regular season matchups because they were all four before the trade deadline. Meaning, Minnesota faced Dallas without Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington–who have been huge for its success over the last two-plus months.

The Mavericks team has held opponents to just 56.4 percent shooting the rim in the halfcourt and 42.7 percent in the paint outside of the restricted area, which ranks No. 3 and No. 6 amongst playoffs, respectively. Minnesota hasn’t been as efficient at the rim (64.4 percent; 11th), but it’s been a top-5 unit in the paint and has cleaned up 31.2 misses (fourth-best). Dallas can throw size at Minnesota with Lively, but isn’t a consistently good rebounding team and will have a much taller task against Gobert, Towns and Reid as opposed to, say, Ivica Zubac and Chet Holmgren.

How aggressive will Dallas be against Anthony Edwards?

The Nuggets mixed in different coverages against Anthony Edwards. Drop didn’t work and playing at the level went meh–but where Denver really caught Edwards was abruptly doubling him on the perimeter and forcing the ball out of his hands. He will likely see plenty of Derrick Jones Jr. this series, but I’m interested to see how aggressive Dallas will be getting the ball out of Edwards’ hands.

You can never throw the same look at star players or else they’ll eventually crack the code. I don’t think Jason Kidd will be as aggressive as Michael Malone, but color me intrigued with his defensive game plan as the series goes on.

Prediction: Timberwolves in 7

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