2022 AFC Wild-Card Preview: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The Miami Dolphins will be traveling to the Buffalo Bills to take them on in the 2022 AFC wild-card round of the playoffs. Now, we get to see round three of this exciting AFC East matchup. When they met in the regular season they split the series, with both teams winning their home game against each other. This time around there are some notable factors, such as location, injuries, and matchups.
Here are the keys to victory for each team!
9-8 Miami Dolphins @ 13-3 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Why The Miami Dolphins Will Win
1. Hill & Waddle Duo
The duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has blossomed this year. Head coach Mike McDaniel has been able to have the pair firing on all cylinders this season and their impact has been twofold. The duo has helped lead the Dolphins to the playoffs, while also sparking a great improvement in third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins have a pair of top-15 wide receivers this year; top-10 when it comes to yardage production. They will find ways to move the ball and can torch you for a big score in the blink of an eye. Getting these two going early and often will help drive the Dolphins to a win.
2. Josh Allen Mistakes
In his two games against the Dolphins this season, Josh Allen has eight turnover-worthy plays. He has 29 total in the 2022 NFL season, the most he has ever had in a single season in his NFL career. Even though he has not thrown an interception against the Dolphins this year, it is only a matter of time until one of these plays turns into a possession for two or the Dolphins.
If the Dolphins want to win, more turnover-worthy plays from Allen are going to be key.
3. Limit Explosive Plays
Allen and the Buffalo Bills will be looking for big plays, and when Miami beat them earlier this season, they limited Josh Allen to an average depth of target of 5.9 yards, compared to his season average of 9.7 yards. When the Bills beat the Dolphins in Week 16, Allen’s average depth of target jumped up to 11.8 yards.
Keeping Allen contained and forcing him to be patient from the pocket will be key in getting the victory.
Why The Buffalo Bills Will Win
1. Who Is Miami’s Quarterback?
The biggest question going into this game is who will Miami play at quarterback? We saw how Skylar Thompson played against the Jets and if he’s under center Miami may not score a single point against Buffalo. Teddy Bridgewater has been atrocious and is dealing with an injury on his throwing hand that kept him out of a must-win Week 18 game.
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa was ruled out on Wednesday by McDaniel, given he has suffered his second official concussion this season, and remains in concussion protocol.
2. A Sneaky Good Defense
This Buffalo defense may not have their big free agency addition, Von Miller, for this game, or the rest of the playoffs, but they still have a sneaky good defense.
They have a great linebacker duo in Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds. Gregory Rousseau has 42 pressures on the year and has five straight games with multiple pressures as we enter the playoffs. Tre’Davious White is still there, even though he has been having an overall down year.
The coaching staff under Sean McDermott is one I trust.
3. Josh Allen’s Highs Are VERY High
I know I brought up Allen having a career-high in turnover-worth plays, but he also has a career-high in big-time throws despite only having 659 drop backs this year compared to 724 last season, where he had a then career-high 39 big-time throws. Then, if you sprinkle in his elite rushing ability, you have an absolute weapon at quarterback.
When Allen is playing at his best, you cannot stop him, as was evident during last year’s playoffs and his game against the Chiefs this season.
The Prediction
So, who do I think wins this 2022 AFC wild-card matchup? Miami is the definition of limping into the playoffs. Tagovailoa will not play, and they simply cannot keep up with the Bills in Buffalo again. Ultimately, the Bills are one of the best teams in the league, I’m riding with them this weekend.
Score prediction: 30-13, Buffalo.
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