UFC Vegas 89 Preview and Predictions
UFC Vegas 89 is a subpar UFC card. The card has a few reasons for excitement, but it has its fair share of underwhelming fights. On a positive, note former champion Rose Namajunas will fight Amanda Ribas in the main event. Plus, there are a few prospects with the potential to impress.
Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC Vegas 89 main card.
James: 28-17
Garrett: 25-20
Anthony: 23-22
Fernando Padilla vs. Luis Pajuelo- Featherweight Bout
James: The UFC Vegas 89 main card opens with a featherweight bout between Fernando Padilla and Luis Pajuelo. Padilla made a splash in his UFC debut as he landed a knockout over Julian Erosa; however, his second outing was disappointing as he lost a decision to Kyle Nelson. At 1-1, he is looking to reestablish his prospect status. Pajuelo is making his UFC debut after an impressive performance on Dana White’s Contender Series. If he can win his debut, he will be a name to look out for.
Padilla is very long for the featherweight division. At six-foot-one with a 76-inch reach, he typically holds a length advantage. I would not say he excels at using his length, however. Padilla can throw his jab and teep kick from kicking range, but he often likes to engage in boxing exchanges in the pocket. In those exchanges, Padilla is capable of landing because of his hand speed, but it also puts him at risk.
Pajuelo makes a living by getting in his opponent’s face, landing boxing combinations, and attacking the body. This allows him to break his opponents with the sheer amount of strikes that he is willing to throw. The problem with this is that he absorbs big shots while employing this strategy. I would not say his striking defense is awful, but his desire to sit in the pocket and trade puts him at risk. Eventually, that leads to eating big shots. Thankfully, he has shown solid durability thus far in his career.
The UFC Vegas 89 main card opener previews to be a brawl. Padilla’s willingness to engage in boxing exchanges should feed into Pajuelo’s aggressive style. In my opinion, that leads to one of two outcomes. The first is that Padilla uses his hand speed to land a big shot early in the fight. That could end the fight or dissuade Pajuelo from pressuring. If he can’t do that, Pajuelo should be able to land big shots in the pocket. The constant combinations and bodywork will lead to Padilla slowly breaking. Plus, Pajuelo could add leg kicks to stifle Padilla’s movement. Ultimately, Padilla seems to be willing to engage in the type of fight that Pajuelo thrives in. That is good news for Pajuelo. I will take Pajuelo by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Padilla via TKO
Anthony: Padilla via decision
Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal- Featherweight Bout
James: At UFC Vegas 89, Billy Quarantillo will fight Youssef Zalal. This fight is Zalal’s ticket back to the UFC. The 27-year-old was cut from the promotion after a 3-3-1 run. After picking up three regional wins, he accepted this fight on short notice and is back in the promotion. Quarantillo has performed well in the UFC as he has gone 6-3 in the promotion. At the same time, he has established himself as a fan favorite because of his entertaining fight style.
Quarantillo fights with a ton of pressure and volume. The goal for Quarantillo is to get in his opponent’s face and beat them down with volume. That game plan works because he has great cardio and attacks the body. In the later rounds, Quarantillo usually holds a significant cardio edge. That said, Quarantillo is also forced to work through adversity with regularity he gets hit often.
Despite being cut from the UFC, Zalal is worthy of a UFC roster spot. The skills are present and he has yet to reach his prime. In the skills, Zalal has shown to be fairly well-rounded. In striking exchanges, he has a strong jab and good movement. Plus, he is willing to shoot takedowns or work from the clinch.
In this matchup, Zalal needs to stop Quarantillo’s pressure. Unfortunately, he does not have the power to flatten Quarantillo. That leaves him to use grappling or clinch work. If he can consistently get to those positions, he can win this fight. That said, I am siding with Quarantillo. The most important reason is that Zalal can get backed up. That is where Quarantillo thrives. If Zalal grapples, Quarantillo can use his BJJ to threaten submissions and work to his feet. In the clinch, he can continue to wear on Zalal with body shots. I think that results in Quarentillo having an edge in strikes landed over three rounds. I will take Quarantillo by decision.
Garrett: Zalal via decision
Anthony: Quarantillo via KO/TKO
Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman- Bantamweight Bout
James: The bantamweight matchup between Payton Talbott and Cameron Saaiman previews to be the best fight on UFC Vegas 89. Talbott and Saaiman are both legit prospects that are very young. Talbott, 25, looked great on Dana White’s Contender Series. In his debut, he continued to trend upward as he took out Nick Aguirre. Saaiman, 23, is another strong prospect. At 3-1, he has picked up wins at the UFC level while showing strong skills. Regardless of who wins, the winner of this matchup will deserve a ton of respect.
Talbott has a ton of potential and is massive for the bantamweight division. At five-foot-ten, he has great length but also has a good amount of muscle on his frame. Once Talbott finds his range, he can beat opponents up with kicks to the body and straight punches. In addition, he has a knack for finding openings in the pocket. If Talbott can find the flow state, he becomes very dangerous. The problem is that he is fairly raw. Talbott has looked inexperienced in grappling sequences. Thankfully, he fights hard and does not quit if taken down. Similarly, he gets hit and can be a slow starter.
Saaiamn is a well-rounded fighter. On the feet, he throws a lot of kicks to the body and legs. That is very effective because he can kick with both legs and is effective out of both stances. With his hands, he looks to close distance, land, and get out of the pocket. Saaiman has also shown grappling upside at various points in his career.
This fight should be very close. Each fighter provides obvious reasons for optimism. Talbott will present serious issues with his size and comes on strong later in fights. I am leaning toward Saaiman, however. Saaiman holds several advantages. To start, he has more experience and more valuable high-level experience. Plus, Talbott starts slow which should allow Saaiman to win the first round. In a close fight, that is important. I am also assuming Saaiman will look to grapple in hopes of breaking Talbott’s flow and rhythm. I will take Saaiman by decision.
Garrett: Talbott via TKO
Anthony: Talbott via submission
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson- Middleweight Bout
James: At UFC Vegas 89, Edmen Shahbazyan will fight AJ Dobson. Shahbazyan is a former hyped-up prospect that has run into struggles against tough competition. In his last five fights, he has gone 1-4. That dropped his UFC record to 5-4. Dobson has gone 1-2 in the UFC.
Shahbazyan has gained a lot of recognition for his striking skills. That is fair. Shahbazyan can throw kicks to all three levels and has powerful boxing. The problem is that he has poor defensive grappling, he does not get back to his feet well, and his cardio is subpar. That is a very concerning list of flaws.
Dobson is mostly a striker who looks to throw straight shots from the outside. Despite not being an elite grappler, he makes an effort to wrestle offensively. That adds another layer to his game.
I favor Shahbazyan in this matchup. I am not a fan of the flaws in his game; however, his losses have all come against ranked competition. A step down in competition allows him to land big shots more efficiently and find a finish. I will take Shahbazyan by first-round knockout.
Garrett: Dobson via decision
Anthony: Shahbazyan via decision
Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa- Heavyweight Bout
James: In the UFC Vegas 89 co-main event, Karl Williams will fight Justin Tafa. This is not a great fight. Tafa and Williams are both in the lower portion of the heavyweight division. Tafa is 4-3 in the promotion while Williams is 2-0.
Williams is a strong wrestler. On Dana White’s Contender Series, he out-wrestled former Penn State wrestler Jimmy Lawson. In the UFC, wrestling has been his go-to skill set.
Tafa is a powerful striker who hunts knockouts. In the UFC, he has landed knockout using counter shots.
This is a blatant striker versus grappler matchup. Tafa’s size could present problems for Williams who is an undersized heavyweight. Still, the difference in wrestling is substantial. I will take Williams by decision.
Garrett: Williams via TKO
Anthony: Tafa via KO/TKO
No. 8 Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas- Women’s Flyweight Bout
James: The UFC Vegas 89 main event features a women’s flyweight bout between Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas. Ribas has fluctuated weight classes between flyweight and strawweight. At flyweight, she has a 2-2 UFC record. That starkly contrasts her 7-3 overall record in the promotion. Namajunas is a former champion in the strawweight division. At flyweight, she lost her divisional debut against Manon Fiorot. That is not a bad loss as Fiorot is part of the division’s elite.
Ribas is an aggressive striker who likes to work behind her jab. The goal for Ribas is to land her jab and use that strike to open up other forms of offense. That is usually a combination of kicks and hooks. Ribas is not an elite grappler but she has strong BJJ and judo. Those skills can lead to success and struggle because she often uses them in low percentage ways. For example, she will use the head and arm throw and attack heel hooks. Those moves rarely yield success.
Namajunas is a great striker with a variety of strong tools. That begins with her jab. Namajunas has a great jab that she consistently lands. More importantly, she finds openings for her strikes. If an opponent has a hole in their defense, Namajunas throws the right strike at the required moment and lands effectively. I also like her kicks and ability to land those shots from the outside. In the grappling, Namajunas can land takedowns and get control time, but she can also struggle defending takedowns and getting up from the bottom. It is a strange combination that is pretty rare.
The UFC Vegas 89 main event is a strange fight because Ribas and Namajunas are both undersized. Furthermore, Namajunas is fairly inconsistent. In the past, she has looked sensational in wins and terrible in losses. It is hard to make a strong claim about which version shows up at UFC Vegas 89. That said, I favor Namajunas. First, I like that Namajunas has committed to the flyweight division while Ribas has not. Furthermore, Namajunas is the cleaner striker and is much more defensively responsible. I am expecting Namajunas to land big shots early and hurt Ribas. It would be ignorant to ignore that Ribas has strong cardio. In her first five-round UFC fight, it will be interesting to see how she utilizes that skill. That is not a big enough concern to swing the prediction in her favor, however. I will take Namajunas by third-round knockout.
Garrett: Namajunas via decision
Anthony: Namajunas by decision
***
CLICK HERE for more of our UFC/MMA content
Check out the Vendetta Shop
Subscribe to Vendetta’s YouTube
