Why Would Anyone Take Aidan Hutchinson Number One Overall?
If the 2022 NFL Draft were today, it would appear that the Jacksonville Jaguars are poised to select Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Jags appear to be leaning Hutchinson with the first pick. Even if they pass, Detroit is expected to sprint to the podium to select him with the next pick.
I just have one question… why do NFL teams think this is a good idea? Why is nobody remotely questioning the idea that maybe it’s insane to pick Hutchinson that high? Because that’s how I feel and I don’t care what anybody says.
Obviously, I can’t speak to any trade offers the Jaguars have. However, it does appear to be that Hutchinson has made himself the consensus top pick in the draft next to Evan Neal. It does feel like Jacksonville could move down if they wanted given the hype around the Michigan product. Taking those assumptions away, I still believe it would be a horrible idea for any team to sit there at one and draft Hutchinson first.
A: I’m taking Kayvon Thibodeaux AND Travon Walker first.
I’m sorry but I don’t even have Hutchinson ranked as the best edge guy in this draft. It’s probably Kayvon Thibodeaux at Oregon. On the off chance I’m wrong, it’s because Travon Walker had more in the tank and became the better player.
I love Thibs at Oregon. I have no reservations about picking him. This guy was the number one recruit in the country and dominated right away as a true freshman. I’m taking him and not second guessing it. If he turns out to be Jadeveon Clowney, that sucks but that’s obviously also the worst case scenario. I might also get a better version of Myles Garrett. Yes, he has that type of ability.
Walker was also a monster recruit. There are just so many good players at Georgia he didn’t get the hype he should. Also doesn’t have elite production. Only six sacks this past year. It’s still hard to be overly concerned about drafting Walker. Did you see that combine? I smell better Bradley Chubb?
I saw what happened when Hutchinson faced someone with a Georgia helmet. He got beat up.
B: What’s the ceiling for Hutchinson?
Hutchinson was a four-star recruit that did almost nothing for half of his college career. In his three other college seasons, the Michigan product had 4.5 sacks.
I’m not here to crush Hutchinson. I just think the expectations are now way too high. I think Hutchinson is now a good player with a bad share price on his stock. If you tell me he’s 10 percent better than Chase Winovich, would that surprise anybody? Wouldn’t surprise me.
What’s your bar here for Hutchinson? What’s his comp? If you’re aiming for TJ Watt, you’re going to be disappointed. If you’re aiming for one of the Bosa brothers, I think you’re going to be disappointed.
People can say whatever they want but this combine stuff matters. I remember really liking Trey Hendrickson. I saw him post that 10-yard historic time of his and was sold. Hutchinson didn’t have a great combine. Hutch ran a 4.74 which is fine… but not freak show level.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compares him to Kyle Vanden Bosch. Hey, a really nice player but not somebody you’re dying to have with the first pick in the draft. Especially the type of pick in a trade down that can alter the entire state of your franchise. If Hutchinson doesn’t go to the Hall of Fame, the Jaguars, Lions, or whoever takes him in the top two made a terrible decision.
If not Hutchinson, what should the Jaguars do? Well, luckily I already did a mock draft simulator for the Jaguars. It’s the right move. Any strategy that starts with picking Hutchinson first, is the wrong thing to do. I know it is because if that’s what Trent Baalke thinks is correct, being on the opposite side is usually the right side to be on.
