Whilst Trade Season in the NBA unofficially starts on December 15, it traditionally doesn’t start to heat up until mid January.
This season, it looks increasingly likely that the first domino to fall will be Detroit centre Andre Drummond, reportedly a target of the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks.
With the NBA title race being perhaps more open than at any point in the last 10 years, it’s expected that a glut of championship pretenders will try to upgrade themselves to contenders.
As any economist will tell you, to have a buyer you need a seller. Today, we’ll look at those NBA teams that are looking to upgrade, and those that may be looking to offload some talent.
Where possible, we’ve ignored teams that are looking to move from OK to good – we’re focusing on the potential transactions that can affect the playoffs.
Likewise, we’re ignoring teams that have a single significant asset that could be moved. Rather, we’re examining teams that may look to move multiple players.
BUYERS: Philadelphia 76ers
Needs: Shooting
Potential targets: JJ Redick (Pelicans), Davis Bertans (Wizards), Robert Covington (Timberwolves), Evan Fournier (Magic), Patrick Mills (Spurs)
The Sixers are a huge, switchable, disruptive defensive force. Even down to dynamic rookie Matisse Thybulle and veteran James Ennis, this team plays defense. Their issues are at the other end of the floor, where teams simply build a wall and dare the Sixers to shoot over it. That’s what happens when your two best players both want to operate in the same space around the basket.
Over the years, Philly have tinkered with the fit around Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, with limited success on the offensive end. Maybe these two just won’t work long term. Whether or not that’s the case, don’t expect GM Elton Brand to cut ties with either this season. So how to build around them?
The Sixers have, to a degree, already done that back in early 2018. They had shooting around their Big Two in JJ Redick, Dario Saric and Robert Covington, but they upgraded the bench with Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova – both signed specifically for their shooting. Propping up the bench units with elite shooting might be their best path.
Does Philly look to the buyout market and hope to strike gold again, or do they make a trade?
Al Horford is the rumoured odd man out, should the Sixers trade. He’s worked as intended in minutes without Embiid and given Joel’s injury history, is Horford worth keeping around?
SELLERS: Sacramento Kings
Potential departures: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon.
The Kings are – as per usual – going nowhere.
Bogdan Bogdanovic recently turned down a 4 year, $50 million extension, so it seems certain that he’s headed elsewhere. Luckily for the Kings, he’s a multi skilled guard that can score, create and play defense. He can even play as a nominal small forward in the right circumstance. He’s in demand. Miami and the Lakers would be ideal fits. The Sixers would be smart to take a peek, as well.
Dewayne Dedmon is another who wants out – although he’s been a lot more vocal about it. As an athletic big who protects the rim and has legitimate 3 point range, and has a relatively affordable $13 million contract through the 2022 season, he’s a rare bird. He’d be the perfect fit in Boston both as a player and on the cap sheet.
Trevor Ariza is just about cooked at this point. Would a contender take him on, given he has $12 million owed next season, to boost a title bid? A return to Houston, perhaps?
BUYERS: Los Angeles Lakers
Needs: support scorer; secondary play maker
Potential targets: Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings), Derrick Rose (Pistons), Marcus Morris (Knicks), Justice Winslow (Heat), Patrick Mills (Spurs)
The Lakers are already quite good at this basketball caper. Really good, in fact. So why would the team with a huge lead over the rest of the Western Conference need reinforcements? Well, they’re not terribly deep. They have arguably the best twosome in the NBA in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but their either old or injury prone. If one or – heaven forbid – both are unavailable come playoff time, then the Lakers are toast. Therefore, they need another weapon.
Kyle Kuzma was supposed to be that man, but until his hot streak in the last week he’s flattered to deceive, to the point where he’s been involved in trade rumours. In any case, Kuzma can’t really play with LeBron and AD. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is someone that would have trade value but, alas, he has a no trade clause. Kuzma seems the obvious chip. Avery Bradley should also be shopped.
SELLERS: San Antonio Spurs
Potential departures: LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Mills, Rudy Gay
Despite their recent good form, it’s surely time to turn the team over to the kids, right? Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker and Jakob Poetl are the future, so cash in on the veterans.
DeRozan is still an elite bucket getter, but he can hijack your offense. He’d be ideal as a dominant bench player for a contender. He’s expensive, but would the Lakers be interested? It’s more likely that both he and Aldridge get shipped to an average team looking to get good, rather than good getting great.
Patty Mills is an interesting case. The Spurs value their Intellectual Property more than any NBA franchise and the 31 year old is in his 9th go around in Texas. He’s the final link to the championship teams. Pop loves him. It’s not likely that he goes.
However……his World Cup performances reminded people of what Mills unleashed can look like. A team in need of fearless shotmaking off the bench would be getting a late game assassin in Patty. The Lakers are an ideal landing spot.
BUYERS: Dallas Mavericks
Needs: 3 and D wing, scoring/rebounding support
Potential targets: Jae Crowder (Grizzlies), Kevin Love (Cavaliers), Tristan Thompson (Cavaliers), Andre Iguodala (Grizzlies)
Dallas were not supposed to be in the Championship conversation this season. Luka Doncic is only 20 years old. Kristaps Porzingis hadn’t played a game in 18 months. Yet, here we are. So do the Mavs play the long game? Give their young pair some playoff experience and load up again with LeBron a year older? Do they look to make a push this season?
If it’s the latter, the areas to upgrade are clear. The Mavs need a better two way wing than Dorian Finney-Smith and they need rebounding (Porzingis is secretly pretty average on the boards for an athletic 7’3” bloke). Crowder is a veteran two way wing who has experience playing under Coach Rick Carlisle, whilst either of the Cavs veteran bigs would give Dallas a huge rebounding boost. Love’s multifaceted offensive game would mesh with Doncic, but don’t sleep on Thompson, who is an excellent roll man (an area where Porzingis struggles) and is a better defensive player than Dwight Powell.
Powell and Finney-Smith would go in any trade. Justin Jackson may be available. Courtney Lee has a neon ‘For Sale’ sign chained to him.
SELLERS: New York Knicks
Potential Departures: So, so many options.
Who knows what the Knicks brass are thinking at any particular moment.
Realistically, they should be looking to offload practically everybody not named Mitchell Robinson or RJ Barrett. But we know that the Knicks are the preeminent NBA franchise at overvaluing their own assets, so it’s a enigma as to who the Knicks will have actually traded come the February deadline.
Let’s assume for a moment, that the Knicks are your perfectly average, regularly functioning NBA front office. Who should the Knicks trade? There is a lot of deadwood: Dennis Smith Jr, Frank Ntilikina, Alonzo Trier, Wayne Ellington, Bobby Portis, Kevin Knox. Wait, what?! Kevin Knox? Yes, Kevin Knox. The 2nd year forward has the opportunity to get all the minutes he can handle in New York. Instead, he’s been surpassed by a journeyman in Marcus Morris at small forward and the pairing of the ancient Taj Gibson and incredibly below average Portis. Given his age (20) and draft position (9th pick in 2018) he should still have some currency from a front office that believes they can be the ones to get the best out of Knox.
BUYERS: Miami Heat
Needs: Play making
Potential targets: Chris Paul (Thunder), Kyle Lowry (Raptors), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings)
The Heat are playing brilliant basketball, but their a fragile ecosystem. They’re (on the whole) young but are headed by a 30 year old star that has Thibodeau miles on the clock. Their system of Jimmy Butler surrounded by shooting (Now with added BAM!) clearly works. But what happens should Butler go down? Goran Dragic has found a late career niche controlling the 2nd unit. Justice Winslow is theoretically good, but no Butler.
Grand Poobah Pat Riley has never been one to die wondering. If a star like Paul or Lowry was available, he’s surely throw the kitchen sink into trade negotiations. Don’t sleep on him looking for a younger difference maker, though. Any combination of Winslow, Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson and the ghost of Dion Waiters should be available.
SELLERS: Detroit Pistons
Possible Departures: Andre Drummond, Derrick Rose, Reggie Jackson, Markieff Morris
The Pistons have been chasing the 8 seed for years. They’ve added veteran after veteran with the expected results. Their injury woes this season have given the kids a chance to play. Whilst the results haven’t been great in the wins column (currently 14-26, 11th in the East) players like Luke Kennard, Bruce Brown, Christian Wood and Sekou Doumbouya (the NBA’s youngest player) have all shown some serious flashes. The recent Drummond rumours indicate that the Pistons are ready to lean into the youth movement.
As much as Detroit would like to find a way to get out of their Blake Griffin commitments, I’m afraid they’re stuck with him. So it looks like Drummond, Jackson and Rose will be shopped.
Drummond and Rose will have their suitors at the top end of the table. Reggie Jackson is an expiring deal, which might be the only way Detroit can get rid. Markeiff Morris has one year after this at $3 million. If Detroit want to get something back for him, he’s easily tradable.
BUYERS: Oklahoma City Thunder
Needs: wings
Potential Targets: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Knox, Robert Covington, Jae Crowder
The Thunder currently sit in 7th place in the Western Conference at 22-17. Whilst there was an expectation that the Thunder would fire sale their veterans at some point this season, their unexpected ascension means that GM Sam Presti will likely keep hold of his veterans and make a playoff push. To that end, the Thunder desperately need help on the wings. Their best wing, Andre Roberson, hasn’t played for about 18 months. The rest of the rotation is the athletic, but thoroughly underwhelming young trio of Terrance Ferguson, Hamadou Diallo and Darius Bazley. That is not getting it done, folks. Bogdan Bogdanovic or Robert Covington would be ideal. Maybe they back themselves in as the team that can get Kevin Knox’s career jump started.
SELLERS: Oklahoma City Thunder
(Seriously, who knows what the Thunder are going to do)
Potential Departures: Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder.
The Thunder currently sit in 7th place in the Western Conference at 22-17 – stop me if you’ve heard this before. Despite their standing, OKC are not sitting at the NBA’s top table. Given most of the Thunder’s best players are older, and they own every draft pick in existence, it makes sense for the Thunder to sell off the high priced veterans and build from the bottom.
Chris Paul is the obvious upgrade for just about any contender, but that $38 million salary for this season and a contract that runs until CP3’s age 37 season makes him difficult to fit into practically any contenders cap.
Danilo Gallinari should be very gettable. The Italian is still a serviceable scorer and fantastic shooter. He’d look great in Dallas. Steven Adams is an interesting case. He’s the heart and soul of the Thunder now that Russ is gone. A selfless teammate, Adams would slot into many a contenders plans. Boston would be a great fit, as would the Lakers. A trade for JaVale McGee, Avery Bradley and Boogie Cousins works.
BUYERS: Portland Trailblazers
Needs: two way wings (or alternatively, any real life NBA player with fully operating limbs)
Potential targets: Robert Covington (Timberwolves), Aaron Gordon (Magic), Jae Crowder (Grizzlies)
Portland are in an intriguing spot. They overachieved last season and are injury decimated this season. Their star back court is locked in through the 2023 season, so patience is perhaps a virtue, but Damian Lillard turns 30 in the off season with CJ McCollum’s 29th birthday not long after – the Blazers feel that the clock is ticking.
Their clear need is two way wings. Carmelo Anthony has come as advertised on offense (good!) and defense (bad!). The Blazers need someone that can stop their opponent – which rules out Kevin Love – but is more reliable with the ball than former wings Mo Harkless or Al Farouq Aminu.
Jae Crowder fits the back courts timeline, but is he really a difference maker? If the Magic are serious about trading Aaron Gordon, Portland could do worse that the athletic combo forward.
Who would the Blazers give up? Hassan Whiteside is on an expiring contract and he becomes redundant once Jusuf Nurkic returns. Would a team dump an expensive asset for Kent Bazemore’s expiring deal?
SELLERS: Charlotte Hornets
Potential Departures: Cody Zeller, Nic Batum, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Malik Monk
The Hornets seemed to have finally settled on their immediate core, and their former starting quartet of Zeller, Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist and Batum are not a part of it.
I’m convinced the Hornets are getting crickets anytime they shop Batum, who will get $25 million next season for the right to accrue DNP-CD’s. Williams and MKG are both on expiring deals. Williams is still a solid stretch 4 that provides a modicum of rim protection whilst Zeller would be an excellent reserve big for a contender. Boston could certainly do worse than the still somehow only 27 year old Zeller.
Malik Monk is the name that sticks out on this list, given he’s still a few weeks from turning 22. Unfortunately, Monk hasn’t really done anything of note in his 2 and a half professional season career to make the Hornets brass want to invest more time into him. With Dwayne Bacon already better than him, the Hornets may look to cash in whilst there is still the perception of potential.
BUYERS: Boston Celtics
Needs: Defensive Big
Potential targets: Tristan Thompson (Cavaliers), Andre Drummond (Pistons)
Boston currently play a troika of Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter and Robert Williams at the 5. All are perfectly fine NBA players, but all have very clear and exploitable deficiencies. If the Celtics are serious about making a run this season, they need to upgrade.
Luckily for GM Danny Ainge, there are two very suitable targets that should both be very available.
Tristan Thompson is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, with Championship experience. He’s also nimble enough on the perimeter to fit with the Celtics switchy defensive scheme.
Andre Drummond is the elite rebounder in the NBA, currently gobbling up15.9 boards per game – a full 1.5 ahead of Clint Capela and Rudy Gobert in joint 2nd. He also blocks 1.9 shots a game and swipes 1.8 steals. Whilst he can get lost positionally, he’s fantastic in just about all defensive scenarios.
The stumbling block for Boston is salary matching. Drummond makes $27 million, Thompson $18 million – Boston would have to get a 3rd team involved to make something happen.
SELLERS: Cleveland Cavaliers
Possible departures: Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson
This is an obvious one. The Cavs are building around their young guards, and their starting bigs are in the tail end of their primes. Both Love and Thompson should have plenty of suitors, so it’s just a matter of what Cleveland want for their assets, and who can make the closest offer.
Love’s shooting and rebounding would help any contender, just as it did when he joined the Cavs. Boston would have to perform some incredible cap gymnastics (or get a 3rd team involved) to get Love, but he may not – with one notable exception – work in their switchable defense. Thompson would be a great fit for the Celtics, however.
In the West, Rick Carlisle would make either player work with his Mavs. And don’t sleep on Daryl Morey making a run at Love for his Rockets.
