“Nobody wants to face them in the first round”
Of all the sports cliches that one might hear as the NBA playoffs approach, ‘NWTFTITFR’ is the one that really Steps Up To The Plate at this time of year, taking it to The Next Level as it Pulls Out All The Stops.
There is always a team or three that, be it by good fortune or elevated play, works it’s way into NWTFTITFR status. Last year you could name the Atlanta Hawks or Dallas Mavericks as teams that lived up to that billing, whilst the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat fell flat in their opening round match ups.
As the NBA regular season winds down, which teams could find themselves saddled with the blessing/curse (look at that – another cliché) of being one of this years NWTFTITFR?
For clarification purposes, anybody nominating the Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks or Boston Celtics as NWTFTITFR teams will be given a stern talking to. Those teams are at the peak of their conferences – of course nobody wants to see them in round one. This analysis is reserved for those teams that are currently in the bottom half of the playoff picture or hanging on to a play-in berth.
Today we’re going to look at the potential NWTFTITFR teams of the Eastern Conference before heading West as the season end comes ever closer.
(Stats and records are correct as of Thursday US time)
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 36-37 (10th in the Conference)
Last season’s NWTFTITFR darlings have endured a most disappointing campaign. Expecting to push for home court in the first round, they’re currently hanging on by their fingernails to the last play-in position. Nonetheless, this is a team that could present the top four (Miami, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston) with a mild headache should they meet.
Of course, it all starts with the electric Trae Young. The 23 year old puts up 28.1 points (on 46/38/90 shooting) and 9.5 assists (4th and 3rd in the NBA respectively). He is an offense unto himself, able to catch fire in an instant. Surrounded by young, talented teammates, can Young and the Hawks put up enough points to take four games of a highly seeded opponent? Frankly, yes.
The issues comes at the other end of the court, where Atlanta’s defense is about as solid as smoke. Ranking 27th in the league, their lack of defensive stoutness undoes all of the good work that their 2nd ranked offense provides.
Atlanta were able to put it all together in the playoffs last season on their way to a surprising Conference Finals spot. Barring a similar turnaround, they’re going to be fun to watch without genuinely troubling the big boys.
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 38-35 (8th)
Now we’re talking!
This writer’s pre-season situational* championship favourite (*depending on Kyrie Irving’s status) have been a dead set soap opera this season.
Between Kyrie Irving’s somewhat misguided ‘Man of the People’ heel turn, James Harden’s displeasure with Irving’s idiosyncratic ways, his subsequent pouting and eventual trade for a man that may not play this season and another injury keeping Kevin Durant out for an extended period, not much has turned out as expected in Brooklyn.
That said, perhaps things are starting to turn around. KD is back and playing like he never left; the men who came over with Ben Simmons in the Harden trade – Seth Curry and Andre Drummond – have slotted in seamlessly and – most importantly – Irving is now able to play home as well as away games. All of a sudden, the Nets are almost the perfect example of a NWTFTITFR team.
Brooklyn’s offense, when fully operational, is historically good. Best of luck to any defense tasked with slowing Durant and Irving with shooters of the calibre of Curry, Patty Mills and Goran Dragic working off of them. Unfortunately, it looks unlikely that Joe Harris will play again this season, robbing them of not just more shooting, but genuine size on the wing.
The X Factor is a certain Australian enigma. On paper, Simmons is a defensive panacea, able to guard whoever happens to be hot. Offensively, his playmaking, speed and power should fit well as a small ball centre – essentially a gigantic upgrade on Bruce Brown. Even if Simmons doesn’t play the Nets will frighten the bejeezus out of any side they play in round one.
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 37-36 (9th)
The Hornets are essentially the junior varsity Hawks.
Led by the brilliantly entertaining duo LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, augmented by the sometimes absurd shot making abilities of Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre Jr, not to mention onetime All Star Gordon Hayward and former 6th Man of the Year Montrezl Harell, this team can put up an avalanche of points. Mostly from thunderous dunks and deep threes.
Fortunately for their opponents, the Hornets like offense so much that they let their opposition play theirs almost unimpeded. Again, like the Hawks, their games would be hugely entertaining (in an All Star exhibition sort of way) but they’ll get worked over in a quick series.
Chicago Bulls
Record: 42-30 (5th)
Based on their record, as well as the fact that prior to a crippling run of injures they sat atop the Eastern Conference, the Bulls should be most frightening to a top four opponent. Yet, their recent 28 point loss to the Bucks saw them drop to a woeful 0-16 against the top three teams in either conference. Needless to say, that’s not getting it done on the playoffs.
The DeMar DeRozan renaissance has been delightful as he drives dagger after dagger into opposition hearts. Zach Lavine has stepped into perhaps his ideal role as the 2nd banana on a good team. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso were – when healthy – the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. Rookie Ayo Dosunmu has emerged in their stead as a brilliant defender in his own right and a steady hand on offense. Good things are happening in Chicago. Does that scare the top teams in the East, though? Not so much.
Credit to Chicago who, on the whole, have beaten the teams they’re supposed to beat and rode their red hot start to a solid playoff seed. The Bulls however are not in championship contention, even at full strength. The premise of this article isn’t about championship contention, though.
So, can Chicago pull a first round upset in a 4 vs 5 match up? Absolutely. They have enough defense and a pair of half court killers in DeRozan and the rapidly reemerging Nikola Vucevic. That could be enough to steal a round.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 41-31 (6th)
The Cavaliers are the gigantic engine that could.
Young, unproven and sporting a front line that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the mid 90’s,the Cavs were not expected to make serious waves in season 2021/22. Bucking expectations, they started hot and have managed to maintain their performance levels despite losing (deep breath): Collin Sexton in November (for the season), Ricky Rubio in December (for the season), deadline day addition Caris Levert in February (for a month) and All Star big man Jarrett Allen a fortnight ago (possibly for the season).
Even with all of those outs, defensively the Cavs will be fine as Rookie of the Year leader Evan Mobley continues to prove a potentially transformative defender. Offensively, however, who is left on this roster that can create offense in a playoff setting outside of Darius Garland, who will be entering his maiden playoffs?
The oft-maligned Kobi Altman is building something really intriguing in Cleveland and they’ll prove a frisky adversary, but without their full roster they’re not going to inspire all that much fear in their first round opponent.
Toronto Raptors
Record: 40-32 (7th)
The Raptors are an interesting case study.
Of their top 10 players by minutes played per game, nine stand between 6’5” and 6’9”. The exception? Their 6’1” All Star Fred Vanvleet.
They play neither small ball nor have they aligned with the NBA’s recent big man revival. Rather, they are perhaps the NBA’s best example of positionless basketball. No matter who Toronto plays, there will be size mismatches all over the floor. As the old saying goes: styles make fights.
Defensively, the Raps fly around the court, switching everything, knowing that they have length and speed all over the floor and that the dogged and deceptively strong Vanvleet can hold his own in certain situations, despite his stature. Whoever they match up with in the first round will have kittens trying to get clean looks against Toronto’s defense.
Offensively, the Raptors don’t possess that one Alpha that you can throw the ball to in late game situations, confident that they’ll create a reasonable shot attempt. What they do have, though, is a five man closing unit (Vanvleet, Gary Trent Jr, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam) who can all somewhat consistently score 20+ in a playoff setting. That allows coach/mad scientist Nick Nurse to draw up sets that exploit the weakest opposition link, confident that he has a player who can take advantage of said match up. In turn that creates uncertainty in their opponents defense.
Boston’s rise up the conference has garnered most of the plaudits, but the Raptors have quietly turned at 15-17 start to the season into a 25-15 run since January 1st. With the oft disrespected Siakam back and firing the Raptors are an exceptionally dangerous first round opponent.
This article also appears at leading independent media site FOOTYOLOGY.
