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UFC Vegas 93 Best Bets

UFC Vegas 93 Preview Bets
UFC Vegas 93 is not a great week to place bets on MMA. Still, there are a pair of betting opportunities that present decent value. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via USA TODAY Sports)

UFC Vegas 93 Best Bets

UFC Vegas 93 is not a great offering of UFC fights. The card has a solid main event, but the remainder of the fight card is bleak. Unfortunately, those poor fights that fill out the event do not present very appealing betting opportunities. That shortens UFC Vegas 93 best bets to a pair of betting opportunities. It is not very easy to find promise outside of those plays.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 6:30 p.m. on June 14.*

Tatsuro Taira ITD +100

The UFC Vegas 93 co-main event features a flyweight bout between Tatsuro Taira and Alex Perez. Taira is a -205 favorite while Perez is a +170 underdog. I am siding with the favorite, but I am uninterested in the price. Instead, I’ll take Taira to land a finish at +100.

Taira has a couple of paths to a finish in this fight. The main path is a submission. Taira has legit BJJ, he sets up submissions well, will attack from various positions, and uses strikes to create openings. It all works to help him finish the fight on the ground.

Taira could also land a knockout. Albeit, that is a less likely outcome. Still, he has power in his hands. It would not be a shock to see him land a big shot on the feet. More importantly, the knockout angle covers a ground-and-pound knockout.

Ultimately, the inside-the-distance prop is the play for a couple of reasons. First, I prefer it over the submission prop. I will take a slightly worse number to provide insurance in the event a knockout happens. Secondly, I think a large portion of Taira’s win condition comes with a finish. I would expect Perez to find success in the later rounds which closes the likelihood Taira wins a decision.

Timmy Cuamba -3.5 -120

The second bet for UFC Vegas 93 is Timmy Cuamba to win and cover the -3.5 point spread. That bet is lined at -120. Similarly to the last bet, this is a way to get the price on the favorite to a more reasonable line. The money line price of -198 is unappealing. I don’t like the comeback on the +164 underdog Lucas Almeida, either.

I see a couple of strong paths to victory for Cuamba. In most of them, he would cover the spread.

I am very skeptical of Almeida’s grappling. I am not impressed with his takedown defense or willingness to get up. In every fight, he is live to lose rounds because of grappling. That’s assuming he does not get submitted. Meanwhile, in his UFC debut, Cuamba showed the willingness to grapple an imposing striker in Bolaji Oki. The difference is that Oki is bigger, stronger, and better than Almeida. A similar game plan would be even more effective this time out.

On the feet, I expect Cuamba to use his movement to avoid the big shots of Almeida while using his quick hands to land.

These paths both result in lopsided victories for Cuamba. The alternative outcome revolves around Almeida landing big shots. If that happens, I doubt he does not get the win. Ultimately, if Cuamba wins it should be a clear performance that covers the spread.

***

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