UFC Orlando Preview and Predictions
The UFC took a week off, but that’s fine because they are returning with an absolute banger. The main card of UFC Orlando features eight ranked fighters. Perhaps more importantly, the UFC matchmakers went to work booking a handful of compelling matchups. The card is headlined by Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland in a fan-favorite clash. Plus, heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich are set to go to war.
The Vendetta Sports Media UFC preview team is here to break down and predict each fight on the main card. Our prediction records can be found below.
James Herrick: 52-37
Garrett Burroughs: 57-32
Jerry Walker: 25-14
Anthony Miranda: 6-3
Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus — Middleweight
James: Eryk Anders and Kyle Daukaus are set to open the UFC Orlando main card. Both of these fighters could really use a win. Anders is currently sitting at 14-7 with a 6-7 record in the UFC. He also has one no-contest in the UFC. Meanwhile, Daukaus is 11-3 with a UFC record of 2-3 with one no-contest. Needless to say, the loser of this bout could find themselves in hot water in the eyes of the UFC matchmakers.
Anders and Daukaus each have some solid skills while also having some flaws — hence why they have both found mixed success in the UFC. Anders is massive for the middleweight division and is incredibly powerful. If he is able to land a powerful strike he can put his opponents out cold. With that being said, he loads up and throws wildly which allows his opponents to stay safe defensively. Plus, he does not throw at a high pace which exaggerates that issue. On the ground, Anders is not bad, but he can get submitted.
Daukaus is nearly the complete opposite. His best skill is his ability to land a submission. More specifically, his specialty is his D’Arce choke which he lands consistently. Daukaus also has solid wrestling and clinch work to help set up his submissions. However, on the feet, Daukaus does not have a lot of offensive tools or striking defense.
I could see this fight going either way. Anders could land a power shot that knocks Daukuas out and Daukaus could find a submission. If you make me pick, I lean toward Anders. His physical strength could help him fight off the wrestling of Daukaus. I will take Anders by first-round knockout.
Garrett: Daukaus via decision
Jerry: Daukaus via decision
Anthony: Anders via decision
No. 8 Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze — Middleweight
James: This fight between Jack Hermansson and Roman Dolidze was booked a little over a week ago. Originally, Hermansson was supposed to fight Derek Brunson, but Brunson was forced to withdraw and Dolidze stepped in on short notice.
This will be a massive opportunity for Dolidze. A win at UFC Orlando will push him into the heart of the middleweight rankings. That will not be an easy task as Hermansson is a perennial contender at middleweight.
Hermansson and Dolidze are both coming off impressive performances. In his last fight, Hermansson dominated Chris Curtis while displaying improved striking. Overall, Hermansson is 23-7 and 10-5 in the UFC. Meanwhile, Dolidze smashed Phil Hawes to improve his MMA record to 11-1 and his UFC record to 5-1. Since then his stock has risen and some people believe he can be the next big middleweight prospect.
In this bout, I am interested to see Hermansson’s game plan. He is a great grappler. He has solid wrestling and is great and finding uncommon submissions. With that being said, he has been more than willing to stand and trade with his opponent. If he is striking, he looks to stay on the outside and land kicks. If he looks to trade with Dolidze, he may get caught.
Dolidze has a good mix of tools and he carries a good amount of power. He will be most successful if he can get inside and strike in the pocket. I think he will be able to accomplish that goal while the fight is standing. Worst-case scenario, Hermansson gets it to the ground, but Dolidze is not incompetent in that realm. I will take Dolidze by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Hermansson via decision
Jerry: Hermansson via decision
Anthony: Dolidze via decision
No. 4 Tai Tuivasa vs. No. 5 Sergei Pavlovich — Heavyweight
James: This may be the best fight on UFC Orlando. Logically, this matchup between Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich is the only fight between two top-five fighters. From an entertainment perspective, this fight is a must-watch. Tuivasa is looking to get back in the win column after his loss to Ciryl Gane at UFC Paris. Prior to that, he was on a five-fight win streak. On the flip side, Pavlovich is coming off a knockout victory over Derrick Lewis which was his fourth consecutive win.
This fight will be crucial to each fighter’s career. The winner will move into the elite group at heavyweight while a loss leaves them on the outside looking in. Amidst the looming return of Jon Jones, being in the top portion of the heavyweight division is more important than ever.
My favorite thing about this fight is that Tuivasa and Pavlovich each struggle with defensive grappling. In this fight, they can throw the concern of getting taken down out of the window because these two are going to throw wildly and see who drops first. Each fighter will look to land a knockout blow differently. Pavlovich will look to use his reach and land straight shots from the outside before entering the pocket with a flurry.
Meanwhile, Tuivasa excels a landing massive counterstrikes. In addition, Tuivasa throws powerful strikes from the clinch and can land leg kicks. The countering ability and wider range of offensive tools lead me to pick Tuivasa. I will take Tuivasa by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Pavlovich via decision
Jerry: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
Anthony: Tuivasa via KO
No. 6 Matheus Nicolau vs. No. 7 Matt Schnell — Flyweight
James: UFC Orlando just keeps getting better. This bout between Matheus Nicolau and Matt Schnell has potential fight of the night written all over it. Nicolau has been the better UFC fighter between the two as he has gone 6-1 in comparison to Schnell’s 6-5. In fairness, Schenll has fought tougher competition thus far in his career.
In Schnell’s last fight he completed an absurd comeback against Sumudaerji and proved that he will never quit in a fight. Meanwhile, Nicolau has won five fights in a row and earned three ranked wins in the process.
This fight should be entertaining. Nicolau is an impressive striker with quick hands and good power. He does not have serious knockout power, but he does damage when he lands. His top tools are his straight punches and left hook. Against Schnell, Nicolau should be able to land consistently as Schnell does not have great striking defense; however, Schnell’s chin will help him stay in this fight. In addition, Schnell is a solid wrestler and could be able to get this fight on the ground.
I like Nicolau in this bout. He should be the more effective striker and he is good enough on the ground to deal with the wrestling of Schnell. I do think Schnell’s chin and heart will earn this fight goes to a decision though. I will take Nicolau by decision.
Garrett: Nicolau via submission
Jerry: Schnell via decision
Anthony: Schnell via decision
Bryan Barberena vs. No. 6 LW Rafael dos Anjos — Welterweight
James: In the co-main event of UFC Orlando Rafael dos Anjos will make his return to welterweight to fight Bryan Barberena. For dos Anjos, he will be looking to establish himself in the welterweight division once again. His last run in the division spanned from 2017 to 2020 where he went 4-4. After that point, he was 2-1 at lightweight before deciding to return to welterweight. That loss came in his most decent fight where Rafael Fiziev knocked him out. Meanwhile, Barberena has been on a legend tour. In his last two fights, Barberena has defeated Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown, he will be looking to add another legend to his resume against dos Anjos.
Predicting this fight is not easy. dos Anjos is the more skilled fighter. He should be able to out-grapple Barberena and will manage on the feet despite Barberena being the slightly better striker. The issue for dos Anjos is that he is 38 and is moving up a division. Typically, I try to pick against old fighters that are jumping divisions. I do not know if I can in this one though. In theory, dos Anjos should be able to control this fight with his grappling. I will take dos Anjos by decision.
Garrett: dos Anjos via submission
Jerry: dos Anjos via decision
Anthony: dos Anjos via submission
No. 6 Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland — Welterweight
James: The main event of UFC Orlando is a fun one as we will see fan favorites Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Kevin Holland square off. Thompson and Holland have each been successful in the UFC. Thompson is 11-6-1 while Holland is 20-5 with one no-contest. For the most part, each fighter has struggled against elite grapplers. Thompson has taken losses to Gilbert Burns, Belal Muhammad, and Tyron Woodley while Holland has lost to Khamzat Chimaev, Marvin Vettori, and Derek Brunson.
As far as rankings go, this will be a big opportunity for Holland. It is rare that an unranked fighter gets a fight against someone ranked in the top half of the division. If Holland can take advantage of that he will be closer to a title shot than ever before. He would still need a handful of wins to get the title shot, but he would be in a solid position. For Thompson, this is a solid opportunity to get back on track after losing his last two fights. At 39 years old, dropping three fights in a row would not be a great look.
This fight should take place on the feet. Thompson will look to be super technical and capitalize on Holland’s mistakes with counter shots while Holland looks to use his unorthodox striking to land powerful strikes. That creates an interesting dynamic. Holland’s unorthodox striking could make it harder for Thompson to land those counterstrikes. Plus, Holland will have a size advantage that will prevent Thompson from sitting on the outside and landing strikes.
At some point in this fight, I think Holland lands a powerful strike that hurts Thompson. When that happens, Holland excels at finishing fights because he has solid offensive submissions. I think Holland lands a big shot that hurts Thompson and he follows it up with a submission. I will take Holland by third-round submission.
Garrett: Thompson via decision
Jerry: Holland via KO/TKO
Anthony: Holland via submission
