UFC Orlando Best Bets
UFC Orlando is a great fight night card. Rarely, do UFC fans get treated with so many great fights without having to pay for a pay-per-view. In turn, a lot of great fights means we have some good fights to bet on. Let’s get right to the action. Here are three of the best bets for UFC Orlando.
*All lines have been taken from MGMGrand and are accurate as of 5 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 2, 2022.*
Tai Tuivasa +180
At UFC Orlando, Tai Tuivasa will fight Sergei Pavlovich in a bout that is destined to end with a knockout. Both fighters have lethal knockout power and whoever lands first will sit the other fighter down. Now, that makes this fight seem pretty even, but the odds do not reflect that as Tuivasa sits as a +180 underdog.
When I first saw that this fight would be booked, I assumed Tuivasa would be the favorite. He is better in the pocket, so if gets inside, he will have an advantage. Tuivasa is a better counter striker and he is good in the clinch, too. Pavlovich is not bad in the pocket, however, I think he is better on the outside because it allows him to utilize his range. Still, Tuivasa can throw leg kicks on the outside that could alter this fight.
There are a lot of traits that make me lean towards Tuivasa. I think this fight will be close, but I am going to give the edge to Tuivasa. I will gladly bet him at +180.
Roman Dolidze +150
Roman Dolidze is getting a big opportunity as he is set to fight Jack Hermansson at UFC Orlando. Hermansson is currently sitting as a -185 favorite while Dolidze is a +150 underdog. I like the dog.
Hermansson is a solid UFC fighter, but do not let his ranking impact how you view him as a fighter. At the moment, he only has one win against another fighter that is currently ranked. Hermansson is a good grappler that can take guys down and look for submissions. On the feet, he is good when he can maintain range. Overall, Hermansson is beatable, but that does not mean he is bad — I can just see a path to victory for Dolidze.
Dolidze has looked good as of late and people have begun to view him as a solid prospect. In this fight, he will be successful if he can get in the face of Hermansson and start trading in boxing exchanges. If Hermansson looks to enter the clinch Dolidze can strike from that position too. On the ground, he should be good enough to stay safe.
In my eyes, Dolidze has the tools to get the job done against Hermansson. I will take him to win at +150.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell Over 2.5 Rounds -125
Matheus Nicolau and Matt Schnell will face off at UFC Orlando. There is not much value in betting on this fight straight up. Nicolau currently sits as a -400 favorite with Schnell as a +300 underdog. Thankfully, there is some prop value. I like over two and a half rounds at -125. The fight to go the decision at +100 is good as well. I will opt to play the safer option and take the former.
Nicolau has had a good amount of fights go to a decision. Five of his seven UFC fights have seen the scorecards. Schnell has been involved in a few more finishes as only four of his eleven fights went to a decision. That does not concern me too much as Schnell has either submitted an inferior grappler or was knocked out by a tremendous striker. That type of skill difference is not present in this fight.
Schnell is durable and will not quit. If Nicolau wants to get a knockout victory, he will have to knock him out cold. Nicolau does not carry that elite fight-ending power. On the flip side, Schnell’s easiest path to a finish is to land a submission. Unfortunately for Schnell, Nicolau is a solid grappler that should be able to fight off his submission attempts. If there is a finish it will likely come as a result of one of these fighters getting tired. That is why over two-and-a-half rounds is the play. I will give up a little value for some safety here.
