UFC on ABC 4 Best Bets:
The UFC octagon will be in Charlotte, North Carolina, this weekend for UFC on ABC 4. Since the card is being broadcast on ABC, the UFC has put together a solid fight night card with a few interesting fights. That gives us a chance to make some solid bets. Here are three of the best bets you can make for UFC on ABC 4.
(*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 12:00 p.m. on Friday, May 11, 2023.*)
Jailton Almeida via Submission -120:
In the main event of UFC on ABC 4 Jailton Almeida is set to fight Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Almeida is a massive favorite at -500 while Rozenstruik currently sits at +360. I think the best angle for betting on this fight is to play Almeida to win via submission at -120.
This fight is one of the most obvious grappler-versus-striker matchups in recent memory. Almeida’s outstanding BJJ has made him an elite prospect. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he has amazing BJJ from the top position and uses ground-and-pound to set up submissions.
Unlike many fighters with a heavy BJJ background, Almeida has developed solid takedowns which allows him to easily get the fight to the ground. Meanwhile, Rozenstruik is a great kickboxer with lethal power. I have a hard time seeing him utilize his striking though. I do not think Rozenstruik has the takedown defense to defend Almeida’s takedown attempts or the bottom game to get back to his feet.
It is risky to take a prop bet in this fight. I try not to play prop lines at this price, but I am more willing to make an exception for a grappler of Almeida’s caliber.
Johnny Walker -115:
In the co-main event of UFC on ABC 4, Johnny Walker is set to fight Anthony Smith. This fight is nearly a pick ‘em as Walker sits at -115 while Smith sits at -105.
This fight is a tough one to call, but I am interested in betting on Walker. From a skills perspective, Walker’s length and unorthodox striking can cause Smith problems. That should allow Walker to land straight shots and kicks. Furthermore, Walker has underrated grappling that he could look to utilize since Smith has poor takedown defense.
I do not think Smith is bad by any means. On the feet, he is as tough as it gets and he has really good boxing. I do think it is reasonable to bet against Smith tough. In this matchup, Smith is returning from an ankle injury. Plus, Walker is younger and more athletic. So, Walker has the skills to get the job done and the outside factors sit in his favor.
Bryan Battle +110:
At UFC on ABC 4, Bryan Battle will fight Gabe Green. Battle is currently lined as a +110 underdog while Green is a -135 favorite. I think this is a solid opportunity to bet on an underdog.
Battle is currently undervalued after a decisive loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov that saw him get badly out-grappled for three rounds. That said, Green is not nearly as good of a wrestler as Fakhretdinov. Typically, Green looks to pressure on the feet while using his toughness, cardio and chin to gain an advantage over his opponent. Green is at his best when he can get his opponent to fade. Although, he does have solid power and can land on the inside.
In this fight, Battle should be able to avoid those issues — he’s a taller and longer fighter. More importantly, he is a good distance striker and uses his length to land kicks and straight punches. In this fight, I think he can keep Green on the outside and pick him apart with straight shots. Battle has the cardio required to follow that game plan too.
Battle is one of the few underdogs I like on UFC on ABC 4. The game plan needed to win this fight is clear and he has the tools needed to get the job done. This play may be in trouble if Green wrestles at a higher pace than usual. However, that is far from a guarantee and is not getting me off this play.
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