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UFC Long Island Preview and Predictions

UFC Long Island

(Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)

UFC Long Island
(Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)

UFC Long Island Preview and Predictions

The UFC is back on the road after a stint in Las Vegas, Nevada. On Saturday, July 16 the UFC octagon will be in Long Island, New York. UFC Long Island is poised to be a great Fight Night card boasting a terrific main event, a possible No. 1 contender’s bout, a potential fight of the year candidate, and more. Since the main card is on ABC it will start earlier than most fight cards. The main card will begin at 2 P.M. EST while the prelims start at 11 A.M. EST. The card will also air on ESPN+ per usual. I am joined by Garrett Burroughs as we preview and predict each fight on the main card.

As of now we will be keeping track of our predictions on a week-to-week basis. Over the last two weeks, we made predictions for UFC Vegas 58 and UFC 276. Those cards will be included in our records as well.

Prediction records:

James: 7-2

Garrett: 7-2

#3 Lauren Murphy vs #10 Miesha Tate- Women’s Flyweight

James: The main card of UFC Long Island will open with a potential No. 1 contender’s bout between Lauren Murphy and Miesha Tate. In all honesty, this is only a No. 1 contender’s bout for Tate. Tate is a former women’s bantamweight title holder, and this will be her first fight at women’s flyweight. Due to her status as a former champion, she will likely be given a title shot if she can get past the third-ranked Murphy. Murphy is looking to bounce back after she lost to Valentina Shevchenko in a title fight. However, before that fight, Murphy was on a five-fight win streak.

This fight should be close and competitive and there is a lot to like about each fighter. First and foremost, Tate made the women’s flyweight limit and looked good on the scale. Because of that, I’m not too worried about this being her first fight in the weight class. From a fighting perspective, Tate will likely strike with more volume, and she will have a wrestling advantage. On the other hand, Murphy should be the stronger fighter. This may sound odd as Tate is the one dropping weight, but Murphy is one of the strongest women at flyweight. Another surprising fact is that Murphy will be the older fighter despite Tate being the one that came out of retirement in 2021. Overall, I think this weight class change should prove to be beneficial for Tate. I also think that her volume will help her win rounds. I will take Tate by decision.

Garrett: Tate via decision

#14 Shane Burgos vs Charles Jourdain- Featherweight

James: If I were to predict which bout will be the fight of the night, this may be my pick — and that is saying something considering how stacked this card is. Shane Burgos and Charles Jourdain seem destined to go to war in this fight. Burgos is the ranked fighter in this one and he will have to win to keep a number next to his name. Burgos’ UFC run has been impressive. He has amassed a 7-3 record in the promotion. These three losses have come to elite competition in Edson Barbosa, Josh Emmett, and Calvin Kattar. Jourdain is 4-3-1 in the UFC, but he is much better than his record suggests. Plus, he has won two straight and he looked very good in each bout.

As I mentioned earlier this fight is going to be a war and most of the fight should take place standing. Typically, I would give Burgos an edge in this type of fight. However, I am concerned about Burgos’ longevity. He has been in countless wars, and I think the damage is beginning to show. His KO loss to Barboza was one of the most bizarre and concerning KOs of all time. In his next fight against Billy Quarantillo, he won a decision, but he did not appear to be at his best. Meanwhile, Jourdain is improving. If that trend continues, I think Jourdain wins via decision.

Garrett: Burgos via TKO

#8 Matt Schnell vs #12 Sumudaerji- Flyweight

James: Matt Schnell and Sumudaerji are jockeying for position in the flyweight rankings in this fight. Schnell is the far more experienced fighter in this bout. He has nine UFC fights on his resume and has a 5-4 record in those fights. On the other hand, Sumudaerji is only 26 but has a UFC record of 3-1.

This fight should also primarily take place standing as both fighters lean on their striking to win fights. Schnell usually does this with a heavy boxing approach. He moves forward and throws a lot of punches. Sumudaerji is a very accurate strike that throws solid straight punches. He also has some great movement. Overall, I think the movement should help Sumudaerji stay out of danger. In addition, he can strike off the back foot which will be useful if Schnell pressures him. I will take Sumudaerji by second-round knockout.

Garrett: Sumudaerji via decision

#12 Li Jingliang vs Muslim Salikhov- Welterweight

James: Next up on UFC Long Island we will see Li Jingliang take on Muslim Salikhov. Jingliang is the far more well-known commodity in this fight. He is 10-5 in the UFC, and he has a win against Santiago Ponzinibbio. He did lose his last fight to Khamzat Chimaev but it’s understandable based on Chimaev’s UFC run. At 38 years old, Salikhov has done a lot of work in combat sports. He is 18-2 in MMA and 5-1 in the UFC but most of his experience has come outside of MMA. Salikhov is one of the best Sanda practitioners ever — a relatively unpopular martial art. Without going into too much detail, Sanda is a form of Chinese kickboxing. In Sanda, Salikhov won five world championships spanning between 2005 and 2015.

In this fight, you would think that Salikhov would have a massive striking advantage due to his Sanda experience but that is not necessarily accurate. Salikhov will be the more technical striker, but Jingliang will have a power advantage. In addition, Salikhov is out of his prime. Most of his prime years were spent competing in Sanda. Furthermore, Salikhov fights with a fairly low output. With all of this in mind, I think Jingliang’s power and activity will result in him doing more damage. I will take Jingliang by decision.

Garrett: Jingliang via decision

#10 Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs #11 Amanda Lemos- Women’s Strawweight

James: Ranked strawweight Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Amanda Lemos are competing in the co-main event of UFC Long Island. Waterson-Gomez is a long-time UFC veteran that has fought in the promotion since 2015. She even fought for a belt against the recently retired Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Despite her accomplishments, Waterson-Gomez has gone 1-3 in her last four. On the contrary, Lemos has been on a hot streak. Before losing her last fight to Jessica Andrade, Lemos was on a five-fight win streak that included three finishes.

Another important note is that Waterson-Gomez is returning after taking over a year off because of an injury that could have ended her career. Combine that with her recent regression and I think this fight swings heavily in Lemos’ favor. For Lemos, her path to victory is clear. She has to outwork Waterson-Gomez and land a handful of powerful strikes. I think she can do that. I will take Lemos by second-round knockout.

Garrett: Lemos via submission

#2 Brian Ortega vs #3 Yair Rodriguez- Featherweight

Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriquez will square off in the main event of UFC Long Island. This is one of the best Fight Night main events in recent memory. It is also certain that we either see a five-round battle or an impressive finish that could come via flashy striking or complex grappling. Not to forget, there are massive title implications on the line. The featherweight championship is in an interesting position as champion Alexander Volkanovski could challenge for the lightweight belt. However, that seems less likely as he suffered a broken thumb at UFC 276. If Rodriguez wins, he may get a title shot as he would provide some parody for the champion. If Ortega wins, he will likely have to beat Josh Emmett to earn a rematch against the champ.

Each fighter is going to have a distinct advantage in this fight. Ortega is going to be the far superior grappler while Rodriguez is the better striker. Ortega’s grappling is centered around his submission skills as he is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Rener Gracie. On the feet, he has grown as a striker as he has improved his boxing greatly while mixing in some other weapons. When a fight is not going his way, he leans on his durability and heart to get him through. For Rodriguez, his striking is centered around his tremendous kicks. Over the last couple of years, he has developed his hands to become a very well-rounded striker.

In terms of a prediction, I am torn. I could see Ortega taking it to the ground and landing a submission. At the same time, I would not be surprised if Rodriguez manages to stay on the outside and land massive kicks. Both outcomes are very possible. Ultimately, I think the winner will be determined by how often Ortega attempts takedowns. If he is diligent about getting this fight to the ground, I think he wins. Plus, Ortega is more well-rounded as his striking has improved much more than Rodriguez’s grappling. In conclusion, I will take the fighter that is a better grappler and more well-rounded. Give me Ortega by third-round submission.

Garrett: Ortega via decision

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