UFC 301 Preview And Predictions

UFC 301 Preview And Predictions

The UFC octagon will be in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for UFC 301. The main card features a Brazilian champion, “The King of Rio”, and several of the country’s top prospects. That may not create an all-time great card, but it is a strong night of fights.

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC 301 main card. You can find out prediction records below.

James: 45-36

Garrett: 47-34

Anthony: 45-36

Jerry: 41-34

No. 13 Paul Craig vs. No. 14 Caio Borralho- Middleweight Bout 

James: The UFC 301 main card opens with a middleweight bout between Paul Craig and Caio Borralho. Craig is a UFC veteran with a 9-7-1 UFC record. In the middleweight division, he is 1-1. Borralho is a great prospect who has lived up to his hype. Thus far into his UFC career, he is 5-0 against a fair level of competition. Now, he is looking to climb the rankings. 

The strengths and weaknesses in Craig’s game are some of the most obvious in MMA. Craig has legit BJJ. The most common path to victory is to land a submission off his back. Occasionally, he will land takedowns and work from the top position. That is rare, however. On the downside, his striking is very underdeveloped and he does not have great cardio. 

Borralho is also a primary grappler. The highlights in his grappling are his top control and submission. Typically, his takedowns are strong enough to get the fight to the ground. Borralho’s striking has been improving. That begins with his jab and counters. Thankfully, his striking defense is strong for a grappler. That eases some of the concerns about his standup skills. 

One of the keys to previewing this UFC 301 matchup will be to determine Craig’s ability to land a submission of his back. In this matchup, Borralho will likely entertain grappling exchanges; however, he should be able to avoid submissions. That results in Borralho winning minutes while having openings to attempt his own submissions. I will take Borralho by second-round submission. 

Garrett: Borralho via submission

Jerry: Borralho via decision

Anthony: Borralho via submission

Michel Pereia vs. Ihor Potieria- Middleweight Bout 

James: At UFC 301, Michel Pereira will fight Ihor Potieria. Pereira is amid a seven-fight win. That run has pushed his UFC record to 8-2. More importantly, he moved up from welterweight and won his first two middleweight fights. Potieria recently dropped from light heavyweight to middleweight. In his divisional debut, he beat Robert Bryczek. That win pushed his UFC record to 2-3 and helped him keep his job. In this matchup, each fighter looks to take another step forward in the middleweight division. 

Throughout Pereira’s win streak, he has shown a lot of improvements. In his early UFC tenure, he used explosiveness to entertain fans with flashy moves. That aspect of his game has calmed down and become more technical. This helps manage his cardio. Pereira has still managed to land big strikes while being more technical. On the outside, he has strong kicks and is dynamic enough to land big shots. 

Potieria looked far better in his only middleweight performance. In that fight, his cardio looked far improved. Still, his career is nothing special. Potieria has strong offensive weapons, but he gets hit a lot. That has resulted in knockout losses. At the same time, he gets finished anytime his cardio dips off. 
I am not a believer in Potieria’s skills. The only hope is that he is suddenly far better in the middleweight division. Regardless, Pereira is far more proven in the UFC, is a much better striker, and likely holds grappling upside. I will take Pereira by first-round knockout.

Garrett: Pereira via TKO

Jerry: Pereira via KO/TKO

Anthony: Pereria via KO/TKO

No. 10 Anthony Smith vs. No. 15 Vitor Petrino- Light Heavyweight Bout

James: The UFC 301 main card features a light heavyweight bout between Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino. Smith is an ultra veteran with more than 56 professional MMA fights. In the UFC, he has gone 12-9 and challenged for a title. Although, he is 35 and showing serious regression. After getting signed off Dana White’s Contender Series, Petrino was an intriguing prospect. In the UFC, he ripped off four consecutive wins and became ranked. That has earned him a big fight against Smith. 

Smith has a solid mix of boxing and BJJ. The striking game plan for Smith largely consists of jabs and straights. On the ground, Smith is an above-average grappler for the division and has strong submission skills. The issue is that he is out of his prime and does not look as sharp as he once was. 

Petrino is massive for the light heavyweight division. This physical strength gives him solid punching power. Petrino’s striking is not overly technical, but he hits hard. That physicality translates to the grappling realm too. Petrino can use his strength to help him land takedowns. Once he takes his opponents down, he has impressive top control and works towards submissions. 

The preview for this UFC 301 bout heavily favors Petrino. From a surface-level perspective, this is a regressing 35-year-old against a 26-year-old. Furthermore, the younger fighter has more power, is the better grappler, and has the cardio to go three rounds. That is a lot of advantages for Petirno. I will take Petrino by second-round submission. 

Garrett: Petrino via decision

Jerry: Petrino via KO/TKO

Anthony: Petrino via KO/TKO

No. 13 Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo- Bantamweight Bout

James: In the UFC 301 co-main event, Jose Aldo, “The King of Rio”, returns to the octagon to fight Jonathan Martinez. Aldo retired from MMA in 2022 before taking three fights in boxing. At the time of his retirement, Aldo was still one of the bantamweights alive. In the division, he went 3-3. That does not jump off the page, but those losses came against Petr Yan, Marlon Moraes, and Merab Dvalishvili. It could be argued Aldo should have had his hand raised against Moraes. Plus, the wins all came against ranked competition. At 37, time will tell how much Aldo has left in the tank. Aldo’s opponent, Jonathan Martinez, is a tough test. The 30-year-old is 10-3 in the UFC and has won six consecutive fights. If Aldo can beat Martinez, there is no doubt he should be competing at the UFC level. 

Martinez is one of the best leg kickers in MMA. On the outside, Martinez throws a ton of leg kicks and he does serious damage. Those kicks can also be elevated and taken to the head and body. In addition to that, he throws solid knees and elbows. Those weapons help him land strikes on the inside. That is important as his boxing is the weakest part of his striking. 

Aldo is one of the most skilled MMA fighters of all time. Historically, he is one of the best at defending kicks and chopping down his opponent’s legs. Although, in recent years, he has stopped throwing leg kicks as often. The ability is still present, but he is much more conservative with that weapon. Still, the kick defense is legitimate. Offensively, Aldo has become much more boxing-oriented. That has been successful because he is technical and defensively responsible. The ability to land damaging shots to the head and body is also present. 

The UFC 301 co-main event previews to be a fascinating matchup. The UFC is pitting an elite kicker against a fighter with elite kick defense. In this fight, one of the two fighters’ strengths will outweigh the others. The age and retirement of Aldo make it harder to predict exactly how that will play out. In theory, Aldo should be able to slow Martinez’s kicks down and land punches in boxing range. Furthermore, if either fighter has grappling upside, it’s Aldo. I will take Aldo by decision. 

Garrett: Martinez via decision

Jerry: Aldo via decision

Anthony: Aldo via decision

(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. No. 10 Steve Erceg- Flyweight Title Fight

James: The UFC 301 main event will see flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja attempt to defend his title in his home country. Pantoja has beaten several great opponents in the flyweight division and has shown the potential to be a great champion. The fact that he has beaten a lot of top contenders forced the UFC to take a deep dive in the rankings to find his next opponent. The promotion found Steve Erceg to challenge for the title. Erceg is a relatively fresh face that is 3-0 in the UFC. Typically, fighters need to show more before getting a title fight, but Erceg is taking advantage of the current circumstances surrounding the division. 

Pantoja’s fighting style is reminiscent of his nickname, “The Cannibal”. It is an all-action style consisting of dangerous striking and lethal submission skills. On the feet, Pantoja is willing to enter the fire and exchange big shots. That typically works because he usually holds an advantage in power and durability. Although, his striking defense is poor and he gets hit a lot. In the grappling, Pantoja has legit BJJ. The headline of that skillset is his ability to take the back and land a rear-naked choke. The flaw in Pantoja’s game is that he has suspect cardio. That said, in his two championship fights, he has balanced his output to ensure he can fight for 25 minutes. 

Erceg is much more calm and calculated in comparison to Pantoja. The Australian is good at managing distance and using his speed to get in and out of the pocket. This allows him to pick at his opponents with his hands. This gives him the upside to win minutes, but he also has the power to land hard. If he hurts his opponents, he uses his potent submission offense to end the fight. 

The UFC 301 main event previews to be an interesting fight. The dynamic of a brawler versus a technical striker makes an appealing matchup. Pantoja’s willingness to get into violent exchanges should result in his brawling style to win out. At the same time, that gives Erceg opportunities to land big punches. In the grappling, both fighters have submission upside. Still, I think Pantoja is the better grappler and he can use his body triangle to get to dominant positions. Ultimately, I think this will be a violent fight. As a result, I will take the more dangerous fighter to get the job done. I will take Pantoja to win by second-round submission.

Garrett: Erceg via submission

Jerry: Pantoja via submission

Anthony: Pantoja via submission

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