UFC 301 Best Bets

UFC 301 Best Bets

The UFC is taking UFC 301 to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The event is stacked with Brazilian talent and quality fights. Let’s dive into the event and discuss the best betting opportunities available.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 12:00 p.m. on Friday, May 3.*

Jose Aldo +120

In the UFC 301 co-main event, Jose Aldo is coming out of retirement to fight Jonathan Martinez. Aldo is a +120 underdog while Martinez is a -142 underdog.

It never feels great to bet on a fighter who is coming out of retirement; however, Aldo is the exception to that rule. In his retirement, Aldo has been boxing. That is not ideal, but it’s better than sitting on the couch. It is also promising that Aldo walked away from the UFC while being an elite fighter. It is not like he retired because he was getting knocked out. Lastly, Aldo has proven to have sensational career longevity.

Let’s touch on the skills now that retirement concerns are out of the way. Aldo is one of the best defensive fighters in MMA history. Aldo is elite at defending leg kicks, he defends at all ranges, and he counters. That toolset should allow him to stifle Martinez’s leg kicks. If he can do that, he should be able to outbox Martinez in the pocket.

It should also be noted that Aldo is the better grappler. If either fighter wins rounds with takedowns, it’s most likely to be Aldo.

Aldo sitting as a +120 underdog makes him one of the best bets for UFC 301. The skills to win this fight are clear and his retirement concerns may be overstated.

Iasmin Lucindo ITD +165

At UFC 301, Iasmin Lucindo will fight Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Lucindo is a -395 favorite while Kowalkiewicz is a +310 favorite. The best bet in this matchup is for Lucindo to win by finish which is lined at +165.

Lucindo has shown promising skills throughout her UFC tenure. In three fights, she is 2-1. That loss came against another young prospect Yazmin Jauregui. In her two wins, she dominated both opponents. In specific skills, she can finish fights with knockouts and submissions. Lucindo has quick hands and hits hard. On the ground, she has submission skills.

Kowalkiewicz has had a unique UFC run. At the beginning of her career, she was a top prospect. That quickly stopped when she went on a 2-7 run that included five consecutive losses. After that run, she resurrected her career and won four consecutive fights. The catch is that Lucindo is far better than everyone Kowalkiewicz beat during that run.

I think Lucindo is the far better fighter in this match and think she should be able to finish the fight. Lucindo is dangerous and will hold power and submission upside over a 38-year-old who flirted with retirement. I will gladly bet Lucindo to get a finish at UFC 301.

Alessandro Costa -125

The final bet for UFC 301 is for Alessandro Costa to beat Kevin Borjas. Costa is a -125 favorite while Borjas is a +105 underdog.

I have a lot of respect for both of these fighters. Costa and Borjas are both promising prospects. In their UFC careers, they have both lost fights to high-level fighters, but they showed promise in their losses.

The reason that I prefer Costa is because of his grappling. Borjas showed flaws in the grappling on his Dana White’s Contender Series. In this matchup, I prefer to side with the fighter with more developed grappling. I could see Costa landing takedowns and potentially finding a submission.

If this fight stays standing, it could be a close fight. I think these two are fairly close in the striking realm. I would much rather place my bet on the fighter with grappling upside at a slight favorite price.

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