UFC 280 Best Bets
UFC 280 is finally here. After a long wait, one of the best UFC cards of the year will go down on Saturday, Oct. 22 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. A tremendous fight card means a lot of strong betting opportunities. This week’s slate is stacked with a lot more value than previous weeks. With that in mind, here are four of the best bets for UFC 280.
*All lines are taken from FanDuel and are accurate as of 1 p.m. of Friday, Oct. 21*
Mateusz Gamrot by Decision +150
Mateusz Gamrot vs Beneil Dariush is one of the more interesting fights at UFC 280. From a stylistic standpoint, Gamrot and Dariush are two incredible grapplers. Gamrot does have slightly better wrestling while Dariush has the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu edge. In the grappling exchanges, these two should be fairly matched. I would be surprised if either fighter can maintain top control on the ground. With that in mind, the striking will be the difference maker in this bout. In that department, Gamrot can use his tremendous cardio to fight at a high pace and be more active. I think that will be beneficial if the fight hits the scorecard; which I expect it will. My straight pick for this fight is Gamrot by decision. If the books are willing to give me +150 on that line I will gladly take it.
Sean Brady via Decision or Submission -120
The UFC 280 featured prelim between Sean Brady and Belal Muhammad is a close fight to call. The lines currently sit with Brady as a slight favorite at -148. The comeback on Muhammad sits at +120. This line should be a little closer, but I agree with the bookies, I think Brady wins this fight. Both guys are great grapplers. Brady probably is slightly better in that realm. Plus, he is physically stronger which will help him control Muhammad in grappling scenarios. On the feet, Muhammad will have a slight advantage. The question is if he can defend Brady’s takedowns. I do not think he can. I do not say that as a way to fade Muhammad, rather, I just have a lot of respect for Brady’s grappling. With that in mind, I like Brady to win by decision or submission at -120. I feel comfortable leaving the knockout outcome to the side as Brady has not had a knockout since 2016 and that came on the regional level. This is a good way to be on the side of Brady and get a slight edge in value. If you were lucky, you hopped on this bet earlier in the week when it was sitting at +100.
Volkan Oezdemir +142
From an entertainment standpoint, Volkan Oezdemir and Nikita Krylov should be one of the best fights on the prelims at UFC 280. From a betting perspective, I see value. In terms of skill, I think Oezdemir is the better fighter. I think he is a far better striker and he holds much more power in his hands. Krylov should be the better grappler, but I do not think his grappling is good enough to warrant making him a -176 favorite. I think Oezdemir’s takedown defense is good enough to keep this standing. From there, he can outstrike him. I am not going to be much more in-depth because I simply think Oezdemir is the better mixed martial artist. At UFC 280, if there is one underdog that I want to bet on the most, it’s Oezdemir. I will gladly take him to win at +142.
Sprinkle of the Week: Aljamian Sterling vis Submission +500
Usually, I would like to find a bet with higher odds for sprinkle of the week, but this week I found something appealing at +500. At those odds, I like Aljamain Sterling to submit TJ Dillashaw. In this fight, I expect Sterling to work to get the fight to the ground. Once Sterling gets a fight to the ground, he excels at taking his opponents back. That creates strong opportunities for rear-naked choke finishes. Plus, Sterling has a handful of creative submissions on his resume. I understand that Dillashaw has good takedown defense and is a good grappler, but Sterling appears to be on another level. I would not risk betting on Sterling at his -178 price tag; however, I can not ignore the submission prop at +500. After all, this is just for a sprinkle so there should not be a lot on the line here anyways.
