Deandre Ayton deserves another contract with Suns:
Among the top of the NBA’s offseason storylines, the Phoenix Suns need to solve the Deandre Ayton conundrum.
The Suns’ Game 7 implosion against the Dallas Mavericks was undoubtedly one of the most lopsided and shocking Game 7’s in NBA History.
Dallas’ 33-point thrashing — 123-90 — was one of only seven 30-point Game 7 victories in league playoff history; it’s the first since the 3-seeded Miami Heat downed the 6-seeded Charlotte Hornets by 33 in the first round of the 2015-16 playoffs. There’s only been one other time when said victory occurred over a one-seed, and it was in 1948, when there was eight total teams with both teams as one-seeds. So do with that information as you would.
On why Ayton — who enters restricted free-agency this summer — played in only 17 minutes, head coach Monty Williams told the media the reason was “internal.”
Personally, I think they should re-sign him if they want to continue competing for the franchise’ first-ever NBA Title.
In last year’s postseason run, Ayton averaged 15.8 points, 11.8 boards and 1.1 blocks, including 14.7 points, 12.0 boards, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per contest on 53.1 percent shooting in the NBA Finals. This year, he posted averages of 17.9 points and 8.9 rebounds in 13 playoff appearances, with those numbers rising to 19.0 points and 9.3 rebounds prior to Game 7’s disaster-class.
Here is what Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report reported last week regarding Deandre Ayton’s contractual situation.
“There were intel questions surrounding Ayton’s motor and work ethic dating back to his days at Arizona, but the 23-year-old has seemed to largely answer those doubts throughout the first four seasons of his professional career.
The recent Williams dynamic may simply echo consistent word—dating back to the trade deadline—from league sources with knowledge of the situation that Ayton is not particularly a favorite of Phoenix’s head coach. Williams has purportedly griped about Ayton’s waning focus, which some people contacted by B/R said has often been reflected by the ebbs of his playing time.
There’s a stronger sense among league figures that Phoenix brass simply does not view Ayton, or any center, as a player worth greater than $30 million annually.”
The Suns could offer him a five-year, $177M max contract beginning at $30.5M, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks. That includes eight percent year-over-year raises, compared to the five percent raises if he were to join another team.
What other options do the Suns have, you ask?
- Sign him to the qualifying offer
- Let him walk in a sign-and-trade
- Commit a double sign-and-trade
- Let him walk for nothing
Should Phoenix consider these options for Deandre Ayton?
First off, let’s get the last option out of the way: They’re not letting him walk for nothing. And if they do, that’s front office malpractice. Let’s call it like it is, or like how would be if it occurred.
Signing him to the qualifying offer — essentially a one-year offer for restricted free agents — would be a so-so option for the Suns — but bad for Ayton.
He’s eligible to a sign the qualifying offer worth $16.4 million if he chooses to this offseason, nearly half of what he would be making compared to the aforementioned max offer.
Committing oneself to any one-year offer is always a risk because of injury, especially when it’s less than what he could be making on the open market anyways. He appeared in 38 games in 2019-20 after serving a 25-game suspension for violating the league’s anti-drug policy plus battling a nagging ankle injury, but has played over 85 percent of Phoenix’s available games since.
The only way Deandre Ayton should entertain the qualifying offer is if extension talks continue dragging out without any other team pursuing him for more $16.4 million, which feels unlikely based on his perception as a top-5/10 center leaguewide.
Let’s briefly look into the sign-and-trade option.
A team could ink Ayton via the sign-and-trade — thus giving Phoenix value in return — but it would hard-cap the team acquiring Ayton. Meaning, said team couldn’t exceed the estimated $149 tax apron under any circumstance. If a team is willing to carry that burden, then the Suns are in luck. But the salary matching also becomes tricky with his base-year compensation (~$15M) if he signed the four-year max elsewhere.
They could also pursue a double sign-and-trade, which requires even more player logistics. That ulimately results in Phoenix being hard-capped; as of right now, they have nearly $130M committed salary for next season (Spotrac), so that also doesn’t look likely. A third-team getting involved would help alleviate all this, but a team would have to be willing for the acquisition to be executed.
Assuming Deandre Ayton leaves, can Phoenix replace him?
Given Robert Sarver’s history, I wouldn’t be surprised if they let Ayton walk. Though Phoenix also has two additional centers entering free agency: JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo.
Both provided good minutes throughout the season and were reliable interior outlets for Chris Paul and Devin Booker — similarly to Ayton. McGee averaged 9.2 points, 6.7 rebounds (2.2 offensive) in 15.8 minutes per game, equating to 20.9 points and 15.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. He shot 62.9 percent from the floor, including 69 percent at the rim (58th percentile), per Cleaning the Glass.
After signing in January, Biyombo averaged 5.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in 14.1 minutes, equivalent to 14.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per 36.
When McGee was on the floor without Ayton, the Suns were a much better rebounding and rim-protecting team. The same applied for Biyombo, albeit a smaller sample.
Nevertheless, Ayton is still clearly the better player, despite any limitations or occasional lack of focus that Williams was reportedly frustrated with. He’s been the Suns’ third-best player over the last two seasons; Given his age plus stature, should continue improving on both ends. And I’m still not sure another team would be in a better place for the former first-overall selection, if I’m being honest.
Both McGee and Biyombo shouldn’t cost too much on the open market, barring an overpay. McGee could command the mid-level exception (~$10M). Given Biyombo entering his age-30 season with only appearing in 36 games in 2021-22, he might command $5-10M million, but I see him getting closer to the minimum as a backup big.
Fischer cited the Atlanta Hawks, Portland Trail Blazers, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs as potential landing spots for Ayton because of their pressing need for bigs. Perhaps they also consider McGee or Biyombo, too.
Here’s a few free agent centers to consider, too:
- Jusuf Nurkic
- Serge Ibaka
- Mohamed Bamba
- Thomas Bryant
- Ivica Zubac (team option)
- Gorgui Dieng
- Mitchell Robinson
- Andre Drummond
- Dewayne Dedmon
Whether Deandre Ayton deserves the max or not is another topic for another day. But he’s one of four centers to average 16-10 on 60.0 percent true shooting multiple times since the start of 2018-19. The other three were back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Jonas Valanciunas — good company, I’ll say!
And he’s only going to get better (and more disciplined) the more he’s surrounded by Williams and Phoenix’s core — giving the brain trust all the reason to re-sign him this offseason.
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