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In a pure statistical sense, a sample of 20 games teaches us very little. But we’re not statisticians, we’re sports fans! Leave the stuffy ‘small sample size’ tut-tutting to the boffins. For our purposes, 20 games is enough to teach us everything about what a player is bringing to the table this NBA season, as opposed to the last. What we’re looking at today is shooting efficiency. The modern league is driven by it, to the point where wide-open shots in the mid-range are eschewed for contested threes and layups. We’re at a stage in that particular discourse where people are proposing some wild rule changes (that, coincidentally, I don’t necessarily disagree with) that reintroduce some variety into NBA offences. In short: efficiency is King.
We’re going to examine some of the players who have made the most striking improvements in their shooting efficiency numbers, by looking at their True Shooting percentage (TS%) and Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) both this season and last, as per Basketball Reference. Then we’ll analyse why they have made those improvements.
I know most of you reading this will have heard the terms True Shooting percentage and Effective Field Goal percentage though some may not fully understand them. I’m here to help. Again, from Basketball Reference:
Now that you’re up to speed, let’s start with a player that many, myself included, love to hate…
Jordan Poole – Washington Wizards
PPG | TS% | eFG% | |
2023/24 | 17.4 | 52.9% | 49.1% |
2024/25 | 20.3 | 60.2% | 55.5% |
Change | +2.9 | +7.3% | +6.4% |
The Washington Wizards are, by design, an awful NBA team. Jordan Poole, who was almost sub-awful last season, has actually been a leading light for this season’s Wiz. Though given nobody can bring themselves to watch this moribund (if loaded with potential) team, Poole’s reemergence has gone largely unnoticed.
At his best, Poole is an audacious shot taker, willing to let it fly from any angle and under any pressure and this season he looks to have his swagger back. He has never been a sniper from deep, so his 43.2% clip (34% on his career) might be a misnomer, but the Wizards will ride this wave for as long as they can.
Poole’s shot diet is similar to last season with one notable – and very relevant to this piece – exception: he has almost entirely abandoned the mid-range, with only 30 attempts in the mid-range so far this season. By contrast, he’s attempted 111 shots from three-point range and 96 from the inside the paint.
Josh Hart – New York Knicks
PPG | TS% | eFG% | |
2023/24 | 9.4 | 52.2% | 49.3% |
2024/25 | 13.9 | 69.0% | 66.1% |
Change | +4.5 | +16.8% | +16.8% |
Josh Hart brings many, many things to an NBA court but elite outside shooting is not one of them. He’s not a liability, to be fair, but he’s no sniper. Rather, Hart’s game is a throwback to the powerful, athletic wings of the 80’s and 90’s, who used to make their living off cuts and attacking closeouts, using their physique to simply move people out of their way. Think Cedric Ceballos or Blue Edwards and you’ve got yourself a historical comparison.
The improvement in Hart’s efficiency – there’s a lovely symmetry to those numbers above – has come directly from the changes that New York has made to its offensive identity. With Karl Anthony Towns on board in lieu of less capable and far less willing shooters, the Knicks have become a most modern – and very un-Thibs – offense.
It has, though, given Hart all the space in the world to attack the paint with abandon. With opposing bigs rightly preoccupied by Towns lurking 23 feet from the basket, Hart is bull-rushing to the rim and shouldering fools out of his way, creating one of the best efficiency improvements in the entire NBA.
Christian Braun – Denver Nuggets
PPG | TS% | eFG% | |
2023/24 | 7.3 | 55.4% | 52.5% |
2024/25 | 16.2 | 68.3% | 64.7% |
Change | +8.9 | +12.9% | +12.2% |
The stark leap in Braun’s scoring numbers are a direct result of his ascension to a full-time NBA starter, which has seen his minutes on the court increase from around 20 per game to just south of 35 a night.
It is rare, though, for a player to increase their production so dramatically, whilst also upping the efficiency to this extent. For that, we can thank Denver’s resident superstar Nikola Jokic.
Braun’s relentless, whirring style meshes perfectly with Jokic. Braun never stops moving when the Nuggets have the ball and there is no better person on planet Earth at finding cutters than the big Serbian. (Well, maybe Arvydas Sabonis, but I’m not sure how his near 60-year-old knees are holding up, these days. Probably not making it onto an NBA court).
If you want another reminder of The Joker Effect, look no further than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The man that Braun replaced as Denver’s starting two-guard has seen his TS% drop by 5.9%, his eFG% by an even 7%.
Ochai Agbaji – Toronto Raptors
PPG | TS% | eFG% | |
2023/24 | 5.8 | 49.7% | 48.3% |
2024/25 | 12.3 | 65.6% | 64.9% |
Change | +6.5 | +15.9% | +16.6% |
The unlikely inspiration for this list (I took a flyer on him in a fantasy league and was fascinated by his newfound consistency, so did a deep dive into his numbers…and here we are) has found a home in Toronto, claiming a starting spot when injuries struck the Raptors roster and maintaining it now that the team is again mostly healthy.
Rather than a stylistic change, either personally or to the team around him, Agbaji’s efficiency increase looks to be coming purely from a confidence standpoint; a feeling that after two seasons of struggle, that he has finally found a pace in the NBA.
He hasn’t changed his shot diet (almost half of his shots are from beyond the arc, and he never knowingly shoots a free throw) but regular rotation minutes, earned through a combination of solid defence and white-hot shooting (47.6% from three, against 34.9% on his career) have seen him find a rhythm on the court.
Payton Pritchard – Boston Celtics
PPG | TS% | eFG% | |
2023/24 | 9.6 | 59.7% | 58.3% |
2024/25 | 15.6 | 67.9% | 65.7% |
Change | +6.0 | +8.2% | 7.4% |
Pritchard has always been an analytical darling. His three-point heavy shot chart plays squarely into the metric’s that we’re measuring, here. The remarkable thing about Pritchard is that, like Braun, he’s increased his output whilst increasing his efficiency.
There is also a little of the Jordan Poole’s about Pritchard, in as much as he is letting it fly off the bounce against all sorts of pressure, as opposed to the catch-and-shoot diet he had previously subsisted on. That extra confidence has led to Pritchard, generally a 40% shooter from beyond the arc, connecting from deep at a career high 44%.
Given a ridiculous 81% of Prichard’s shots come from three-point range, maintaining his career best clip will be the key to keeping up the pace in what is a career best season.
Jaren Jackson – Memphis Grizzlies
PPG | TS% | eFG% | |
2023/24 | 22.5 | 55.2% | 49.4% |
2024/25 | 22.2 | 61.9% | 57.2% |
Change | -0.3 | +6.7% | +7.8% |
We’re going to finish with the exception on this list: a player who is producing less, despite improved efficiency.
Last season’s Grizzlies were the hottest of messes, no Ja Morant was merely the tip of the iceberg. Memphis’s situation required people to step up, Jackson and Desmond Bane chief amongst them. Jackson especially struggled as the offensive hub. His deep shooting has always been overplayed, and he isn’t the most natural finisher around the hoop. With increased defensive attention sent his way, his efficiency numbers plummeted.
Even this season, Morant has already missed time, Bane has seemingly had his shooting stroke stolen by the Monstars (if I do the biggest fall in efficiency list, expect to see Bane’s name amongst it) and Marcus Smart has aged so quickly that he’s been usurped by a rookie second rounder. That said, the improvements made by the Grizzlies fringe players (Santi Aldama, Scottie Pippen Jr, Jake LaRavia, etc.) have given Jackson a little more space with which to work than last campaign.
Ja Morant doesn’t like the Lakers – Vendetta Sports Media
With more options around him, he hasn’t needed to shoulder such a burden and whilst his scoring has remined the same, his efficiency has improved markedly. Interestingly, Jackson’s efficiency numbers are very close to his figures in the 2023 NBA season, a clear indication of how much last season’s clown show impacted his game.
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