NHL 2022 Offseason Guide: The Nashville Predators
You know the guy in every rom-com movie who flirts with his female lead and sees every possible thing as a sign he should go for it? In the movies he finally does, they kiss and everyone lives happily ever after. Anyone that lives in the real world knows that’s not always the case. A lot of the time you are shot down and spiral out of control for a couple of weeks (months? years?) until you finally find an even kneel again. Well, that’s the Nashville Predators. They are flirting with the playoffs and in the perfect Hollywood world, they would go for it and win a Cup. However, this is reality and going all-in with a stacked Central Division could leave the Predators having nightmares.
The Roster
I have a hard time deciding which way the Nashville Predators should go in regard to chips all in or rebuilding. A lot of that has to do with the core they have. Some nice pieces had good seasons (Matt Duchene) at a decent age (31) makes you wonder, can they go again? The reality of it is that they are a few elite players away from challenging though, especially in the forward core. They barely squeaked into the playoffs this season due to the Vegas Golden Knights imploding. The Central Division is going to be as tough, if not tougher, next season and the Pacific should provide more fight for the wildcard positions that both went to the Central in 2021-22.
The one thing Nashville does have is an elite goaltender and, as we have seen with the New York Rangers, that can play a massive role. Juuse Saros had the most ice time of any goaltender in the league (3931.22) and was second to Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck in shots faced (2107) and saves (1934). Despite that, he finished in the top ten for SV% (.918) and GAA (2.64). Playing 67 games is not ideal and a more capable backup than David Rittich would help lighten that load. Enter Connor Ingram who was fantastic in the playoffs despite a 4-0 sweep by the Colorado Avalanche.
Team Needs
… a resolution to the Filip Forsberg saga. That doesn’t necessarily mean re-signing the 27-year-old winger. Forsberg seems to want to test free agency and Nashville should support that decision, have a number in mind (he’s just finished a six-year $6 million AAV contract), and go no further than that. While Forsberg is probably thinking he should be earning Matt Duchene money, it’s not logical for the Predators to then have $24 million tied up in Forsberg, Duchene, and Ryan Johansen yet still need an elite forward who can put up 100 points.
There’s also a need for some young blood on the back end. Roman Josi had a career year and would have walked away with the Norris Trophy voting had it not been for the greatest defenseman ever known as Cale Makar. He’s also 32 years old. Dante Fabbro was his most prominent linemate this past season and is seen as a bright spot for the future d-core of this team. However, his underlying numbers showed that without Josi he was much worse by a decent-sized margin and in some cases held Josi back. For example, Fabbro’s CF% with Josi was 50.08% and without 42.09%. But Josi’s CF% without Fabbro was 65.37%. I say all this to point out that Luke Prokop is on the way, and it might be worthwhile pairing him with the experienced defenseman instead.
Cap Situation
This is where the Forsberg dilemma gets interesting. You have the cap to re-sign him — $21,561,358 in cap to be exact. However, if he walks you instantly become a major player in free agency. Sure, RFA’s like Luke Kunin and Yakov Trenin will get a slice of that cap but it will still leave you with a real chunk to go big game hunting.
Given the situation of some of your Central Division rivals could it be possible for the Predators to make a sizable offer to Valeri Nichushkin? Or Nazem Kadri? Could they have been in the Kevin Fiala sweepstakes before the Minnesota Wild traded him the LA Kings? All those possibilities should be determined by whether the Predators think they can challenge or not. I’m of the latter opinion.
The Draft
The Predators have six picks over seven rounds but are without any in rounds two and six while having a pair in round three. Their first-round pick will be at No. 17 which is where they picked in 2016, choosing Fabbro. The Predators have done a decent job in recent years with draft picks, especially last year when they picked up Fyodor Svechkov and Zachary L’Heureux in the first. While choosing Russian players can be a challenge, Svechkov has shown himself to be a highly dangerous player in the MHL and VHL, while L’Heureux had another solid year in the QMJHL with 22 goals in 46 games. More hits like that and the Nashville Predators could transition nicely from their aging stars.
One player to keep an eye on, given the Nashville Predators have two third-round picks, is Zach Bookman. The defenseman is on the older side of the draft at 20 years old and is already committed to Merrimack College but put up 102 points in his last AJHL season with the Brooks Bandits. If that name sounds familiar it’s because that was Cale Makar’s junior team. Lighting couldn’t strike twice, could it?
Conclusion
I feel it’s time for the Predators to hit reset. See what you have in the prospect pool and move forward from there. The Central is too stacked, the Pacific is getting better, and a Stanley Cup is not foreseen soon. It’s all about preparing now for the Predators, so when that moment comes again (and it will) that they are ready with a mixture of veterans and prospects.
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