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The NBA in tiers: 2023 championship contention.

championship

Nikola Jokic is on the hunt for his 3rd consecutive MVP

championship
Nikola Jokic is on the hunt for his 3rd consecutive MVP (Photo: Jonathan Bachmann/Getty Images)

We’re into the home stretch of the NBA regular season and in a season where so much has changed though the course of the campaign, it seems prudent to gauge where each and every team sits in relation to their chances of securing the NBA championship.

Every NBA team has somewhere between 20 and 25 games left to complete on its schedule at the time of writing. Usually, by this stage of a season, we’ve seen a select group of clubs separate themselves from the bunch…at both ends of the standings.

Whilst that is the case at the bottom of the table as teams form a disorderly queue for giant French prodigy Victor Wembanyama, the top contains a glut of teams. A few of those will quite rightly consider themselves genuine title chances, whilst some may think they’re amongst the favourites but perhaps sit just outside that elite circle. Others – not going to name the Sacramento Kings, here – are just happy to be in the conversation.

Rather than ranking teams one-through-thirty, I’ve decided to place teams into tiers (teams within each tier are listed alphabetically) starting with the race to the bottom.

Wemby!

Charlotte Hornets

Let’s start with a positive: the Hornets play hard.

That’s about it, though. They’re a truly awful team who only got worse at the trade deadline. Now, they’ve lost their only genuine star in LaMelo Ball with a fractured ankle, right at the point where the team was probably considering shutting him down in any case.

Quite literally, a tough break for Charlotte.

Detroit Pistons

Losing Cade Cunningham only 12 games into the season clearly sharpened the Pistons’ focus: give the ball to the kids; lose a whole lot of basketball games.

Detroit certainly has pieces: Cunningham is a stud; rookies Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren are ever so tantalizing; Isaiah Stewart is solid. Even Killian Hayes has shown something.

General Manager Troy Weaver continues to feverishly test the ‘second draft’ market with some successes (Marvin Bagley, perhaps James Wiseman) as well as the odd failure (Kevin Knox, Hamadou Diallo).

The Pistons will, though, want to start putting together some sort of winning team in the near future.

Houston Rockets

The Circus is in town!

It’s so unfair on Rockets fans that a team that only a few years ago was a Chris Paul hamstring strain away from the finals – and perhaps a championship – is now a glorified crèche for talented but wayward young basketballers.

There is a part of me that doesn’t want Wembanyama to end up in Houston, for fear of that shit-show corrupting the best prospect we’ve seen in 20 years.

San Antonio Spurs

Even when the Spurs tank, they do it right.

They’re giving minutes to young players, have traded veterans for picks and/or prospects and currently hold the league’s longest losing streak of 16 games. In fact, they’ve lost 21 of their last 22 ‘contests’. Since the turn of the year San Antonio are a sparkling 2-23.

The tank is rumbling along the Riverwalk and the good people of San Antonio couldn’t be happier.

Lottery bound…but on the right path

Indiana Pacers

With Tyrese Haliburton making his first All-Star team, Myles Turner playing career best basketball (with much gratitude to his point guard) and rookie Bennedict Mathurin lighting it up, the Pacers looked for a long time like a potential playoff gate crasher. Haliburton’s injury put a stop to all of that, though.

Nonetheless, Indiana are well positioned for a potential playoff push next season with very good young players and draft pick that is getting better by the week.

Oklahoma City Thunder

With the Lakers looking to make a push and Portland being dragged kicking and screaming by Damian Lillard toward a play-in berth, it’s looking like the Thunder will be lottery bound.

That’s no bad thing. Even with OKC likely falling outside of the top four, there are outstanding prospects littered throughout the top 10 of this year’s draft. Throw in the eventual addition of current 2nd overall pick Chet Holmgren and the continued development of this exciting young core and you have a team ready to rocket up the standings in 2024.

Orlando Magic

Putting aside their woeful 5-20 start, the Magic have actually won games at a clip that would see them sitting 6th in the Eastern Conference at the time of writing. Alas, all 82 games count and the Magic are on the outside looking in.

Of course, another lottery pick – with Chicago’s potentially on the way, also – will only bolster a roster chock full of young talent that has already welcomed back Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac this season.

Wembanyama; Scoot Henderson, Amen (or Ausar) Thompson, Nick Smith….all would conceivably fit on this roster.

The Magic are in great shape.

Play-in or bust

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are likely to miss the play-in and are a dead certainty to miss the playoffs. That means their 1st round pick this year will be heading to Orlando unless the Bulls get some incredible lottery luck.

It shouldn’t be this way.

A squad with DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Alex Caruso and a smattering of young talent should not be sitting five games below .500. Lonzo Ball isn’t that important, is he?

Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka did a good job re-tooling at the trade deadline, giving the Lakers a chance to be that stereotypical nightmare lower seed match-up. What he didn’t need was an injury to either of his tent-pole stars.

Whilst you would have bet the farm on Anthony Davis being the man to go down, instead, it’s LeBron James who is out indefinitely with a foot concern. Without LeBron, the Lakers are toast.

The best they can hope for is a resurgence in Davis’ offensive game and some star turns from D’Angelo Russell every third or fourth appearance. The supporting cast will have to stand up, too.

Even then, it probably only earns the Lakers the right to play get walloped by the Warriors in the play-in.

Minnesota Timberwolves

It’s taken a major mid-season trade to correct (some of) the sins of their major off-season trade but the Wolves are finally looking like a functional basketball team.

Anthony Edwards has ascended to stardom and still has significant room to grow. Rudy Gobert is looking something like his old self. Not coincidentally, Mike Conley has fitted in perfectly.

This is a team that could give a top seed a mild headache in the playoffs.

There is only one, teeny-tiny problem: reintegrating Karl-Anthony Towns.

Portland Trailblazers

Damian Lillard might literally die trying to drag his team into the playoffs. There is nothing more that he can do. He practically singlehandedly has the Blazers attack humming at 4th in the NBA in offensive rating. Defensively though? They’re 27th in the league with the only teams below them all nakedly tanking.

Sure, Dame can’t be entirely absolved of blame for the Blazers woes at that end, though he’s surely earned the benefit of the doubt.

Washington Wizards

The very definition of ‘play-in or bust’.

First round cannon fodder.

Brooklyn Nets

After a ridiculously tumultuous off-season, bleeding into Kyrie Irving going scorched flat-Earth shortly after the season began, it’s a minor miracle that the Nets were able to find themselves just adjacent to the elite of the East before the Nets finally tired of the soap opera that they had become.

Whilst their trades of Irving and Kevin Durant have set them up for a potentially bright future, they’re really not all that good in the present.

Their pre-trade deadline should get them into the play-in at the very least. Once there, they’ll be summarily chewed up and spat out.

Utah Jazz

Like the Nets, Utah’s early season form might carry them into a play-in position despite their shedding of assets at the trade deadline.

Considering the Jazz traded Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt and Mike Conley to a pair of teams that they’re competing against (the Jazz for draft picks, the Lakers and Wolves for seedings, to be fair) expect the Jazz medical staff to discover a slight niggle in Lauri Markkanen’s thigh at some point in the next fortnight.

Not who you want to see in round one.

Atlanta Hawks

The talent is there.

The Hawks are young, deep and on their night, exceptional. It’s just too bad that they genuinely seem to hate playing with each other.

The Hawks have made changes off the court, with Landry Fields superseding Travis Schlenk as the front office lead decision maker. His biggest decision thus far has been to replace the hopelessly out of place Nate McMillan with the highly rated Quin Snyder on the sidelines.

On the assumption that ownership have bought into those changes, we can presume that they, the front office and the coach are all on the same page. All of that counts for nothing, though, if the playing group is fractured.

The Hawks need to sort things out. Quickly.

Golden State Warriors

Practically every stat – advanced or otherwise – suggest that the Warriors, owners of a 31-30 record, are bang average. Yet the prevailing thought around much of the league is that the reigning champs will be able to turn in on when it matters.

To that end, this season may prove to be the ultimate study on the concept of ‘flipping the switch’.

Miami Heat

The Heat are the model team for this tier.

They’re frankly anemic on offense, unable to stretch the floor consistently or score at the rim. Yet they find a way to get buckets in big moments. Aligned with their always fearsome defense, that clutch ability makes the Heat the quintessential playoff nightmare for a higher seed.

Remember, just last season the Heat were massive underdogs in the conference finals against Boston, yet were only a missed Jimmy Butler jump shot away from making it to the big dance.

New Orleans Pelicans

If the Pelicans are healthy (read: If Zion Williamson is healthy) then the Pelicans move up into the next tier, possibly even the one above that.

As currently constituted, their available top end talent just isn’t good enough and their vaunted young depth remains too green.

Toronto Raptors

Was it just a year ago that the greater NBA world (yes, me included) was shouting from any available soap box that the Raptors were a championship dark horse?

The Raptors have a raft of issues to solve on the court from a fit perspective and a tactical approach (I covered them on The Point in January) but the more you watch them they simply don’t seem to enjoy playing basketball right now.

That might stem from issues with coach Nick Nurse’s schemes, it could be the famously bombastic coach wearing on them or it could be that the players are simply not united.

Whichever way you cut it, Toronto is playing to less than the sum of its parts. Should they find a way to coalesce, however, they’ll prove the toughest of outs for any opponent.

Solid playoff teams

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic is no longer responsible for everything that the Mavericks achieve on the offensive end of the court. Kyrie Irving’s addition gives the Mavs one of the very best one-two punches in the NBA.

That said, there are still so many questions here. Certainly enough to prevent the Mavs from sitting in a higher tier.

Jason Kidd is clearly a better coach than he was in Milwaukee, but do you trust him when the stakes are highest? Do you trust Kyrie not to napalm everything within view for any three consecutive months? Is Josh Green (seven minutes per game in last season’s playoffs) ready for prime time? Can Maxi Kleber, once he returns from injury, bolster Dallas’ 24th ranked defense?

New York Knicks

In a sure sign that we’re living in the Matrix, the Knicks, led by Thom Thibodeau, are a solid team based on…their offense?

Led by Jalen Brunson and the resurgent Julius Randle. New York are already quite good. If RJ Barrett can rediscover his groove then the Knicks could really create havoc on offense.

Can Mitchell Robinson and Quentin Grimes do enough to keep the afloat at the other end of the floor?

Sacramento Kings

Mike Brown was supposed to fortify the Kings’ defense to the point where it would no longer be embarrassing, whilst the Domantas Sabonis/De’Aaron Fox led offense scored just enough points to keep the Kings in the contest.

Instead, the defense hasn’t really improved by any great measure and their entertaining offense comes in just a hair behind Denver’s as the league’s 2nd best attack.

The Kings infamous 16 season playoff drought is surely over and their building is going to be all caps LOUD come playoff time. That said, it’s unlikely that they find a way into the 2nd round.

At this stage, that’s perfectly fine. The Kings are genuinely happy to be playing playoff hoops.

A punchers chance

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs possess perhaps the best young core in the entire NBA. They have a pair of offensive beacons, two defensive powerhouses (or at least Evan Mobley will be in the near future) and…not all that much else.

Despite their startling lack of depth, the Cavs are still ranked 2nd in the entire NBA in net rating. Even though this feels like something of a free hit season for the Cavs as they start to discover themselves, it’s that net rating that leads me to believe that a few lucky breaks could see them make the conference finals.

There are massive mountains to climb at the top of the East but don’t be surprised if Cleveland ruffle some feathers.

Philadelphia 76ers

Top 10 offense. Top 10 defense. Top five net rating. A 19-7 record in 2023. An MVP candidate, a wonderful 2nd banana, an ascendant 3rd key piece and outstanding role players littered across the roster. A collective chip on their shoulder.

Why are we not taking the Sixers more seriously? Scar tissue. That’s why.

The Sixers’ recent history of playoff failure, aligned with James Harden’s notorious flameouts whilst in Houston have left a bitter taste in the mouths of many.

Until the Sixers show us otherwise, they can’t be considered an elite team come playoff time.

Contenders

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers’ place in this tier is almost entirely dependent on the availability of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

Leonard is looking back to his best on offense and is still able to snatch your soul on defense from time to time. The Clippers are 23-11 with Kawhi on the floor and it’s his ability to stay on the floor that will dictate how far this version of the Clippers – perhaps the best in the Steve Ballmer era – will go.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizz have fallen away a touch without hulking Kiwi Steven Adams controlling the glass. The easy buckets that his league leading 5.1 offensive boards per game generates are a large reason why Memphis’s half-court offense functions at a reasonable level – they’re 26th in the league in the month that he’s been missing.

Memphis already sport perhaps the best open floor attack in the league and a solid defense. If they can find some efficiency in the half court they should be able to push the very best teams all the way.

And they’re still fine in the west, apparently.

Phoenix Suns

The wildcard.

Without having seen how the Suns look with Kevin Durant on the floor, it’s impossible to provide a true assessment of this team. On paper, though? Wow!

Durant is the closest thing the league has seen to an offensive cheat code since Wilt Chamberlain. Devin Booker is now a 2nd option! That’s ludicrous.

Of course, their depth has been pillaged and all three of Durant, Booker and Chris Paul have missed significant chunks of time so far this season. Deandre Ayton may or may not give a fuck.

If everything falls into place, the Suns are ranked too low, here. That said, let’s see literally a single game with their big three on the floor before we come to any conclusions.

Cream of the crop

Boston Celtics

After an off-season that could have detonated a lesser team, Boston have been arguably the league’s best team so far this season.

The Celtics bona fides are obvious. They’re 1st in the NBA in net rating, 3rd in offense and 4th in defense. This team is, by any measure, elite.

New head coach Joe Mazzulla has the Celtics living and dying by the three. That could create an interesting dichotomy should they face the Bucks or Cavaliers in the playoffs (it seems unlikely they would be able to avoid both). Milwaukee and Cleveland – the league’s two best defenses – are both experts at taking away the three ball.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic is making a mockery of the concept of voter fatigue.

The two-time reigning MVP is having undoubtedly his best ever season, leading the Nuggets to a clear top seeding in the conference and perhaps top seeding overall.

Denver sport the NBA’s top offense (even their much maligned defense is up to 13th), they have arguably the league’s best home court advantage, Jamal Murray looks back to his best and the supporting cast is perfectly suited to their stars.

Oh, they also have the Joker in the pack.

Milwaukee Bucks

A 14 game winning streak has Milwaukee sitting pretty atop the NBA standings.

Khris Middleton still looks short of a gallop as he continues his long recovery from injuries to seemingly every part of his body. Still, the Bucks are yet to drop a game in which Middleton has appeared in 2023. That owes much to Giannis Antetokounmpo quietly having a season that is at least the equal of his MVP seasons.

And that is the concern for Milwaukee – the load Giannis is carrying.

He’s taken down the Suns in the playoffs. He’s outduelled Kevin Durant. To beat them both at the same time, let alone the other contenders on both sides of the conference divide, the Bucks megastar will need something left in the tank.

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